2024 Presidential Election thread

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

And that’s going to stop who from doing so? They can simply hammer that message on the fear of the coming unknown. I won’t lie, it makes me a bit nervous.

It's been my fear along that this would happen.  The next fear is that the recession runs its course early in his presidency and he takes credit fot it.  He'll also take credit for fixing inflation even though it's already getting fixed now.  

[Tigeraholic1]

2 hours ago, pfife said:

just wanted to let everyone know that I've agreed to become a moderator of this forum

I wonder how this screening process went LULZ

 

Post in zero sports rooms: Check

Has long going bickering matches with multiple posters: Check

Will drag a thread 2-3 pages to make a point or want you to aplogize: Check

 

We are a small community and not sure the reasoning we NEEDED another Mod but I would watch for this dude to weaponize it.

 

[Dan Gilmore]

Whoosh.

[Motor City Sonics]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I doubt he even read it.  

When he was President (oooh, just threw up in my mouth a little),  his staff would make sure to put his name as many times as possible in the briefings because it was the only way he would actually read it (and even then, he wouldn't understand it). 

[Kacie]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I agree. Hillary also had a lot of intervening events, such as the Comey Letter being released two weeks in advance of election day and (believe it or not) Wikileaks that helped bring her down as well. Along with poor campaign strategy in terms of where she visited and where she didn't. She was also a Democrat running for a third consecutive D term in a country that generally doesn't reward in-parties like that.

All of which to say is that you can point to many different factors in a race that was decided by about 80,000 votes in three states. It isn't just because labeling him a bully didn't work.

But I do think that looking at everything through the lens of 2016 (as many still do) ignores the ways in which the electorate and the candidate are much different today than they were eight years ago. Donald Trump was much more of an enigma, much less defined, and (believe it or not) was perceived as much more of a moderate on social issues than he is in 2024. His performance in the suburbs in 2016 was likely the high water mark, and it's possible (if not likely) he will do worse there in 2024 than he did in 2020.

Then you get to his personal characteristics... he's 78 years old, much less coherent than he was eight years ago (which is saying something), he's been implicated in legal fights and issues (yes voters are aware of this), isn't focused enough to actually talk policy or carry out a campaign strategy (see: NABJ Conference). 

He's not a Colossus, and talking yourself into learned helplessness, saying things like "can't do that" or "what about 2016?" over every single thing (such as "weird") that comes up to accentuate the personal or character differences between the two candidates seems like a self-defeating strategy in its own right. Yes, they need to focus on policy and highlighting the phony nature of Trump's populism, but you need to layer in supporting data to support the charge of "phony"... and a lot of that is going to be by poking at their weaknesses in character.

You also have to factor in that Hillary was extremely unlikable and always has been.  Heard her speaking at Sheila Jackson's funeral, and it was like nails on a chalkboard.  No, not sexist, just reality. Public speaking is not her forte. Most of us cringed having to vote for her and only did so because we knew what a threat Trump was.    Throw in the general distaste for the Clintons, the Bernie factor and the very likely possibility that there was election interference, and there you have it.  It's a shame Beau died when he did or we might have had 2 Biden terms and Trump would be looking for his latest grift or tv show.  

Agree also that the Democrats just have to hammer points ad nauseum.  Whether it's weird, creepy, chaos.  Whatever it is.  Pick something, and don't let up.  While it'd be nice if anyone actually cared about the issues, it's all about buzzwords and catch phrases.  They got Biden out of the race with obsessing about his age,(hopefully they'll regret getting what they wished for) and yet, crickets from MSM or the Democrats on Trump's age and his obvious cognitive decline.  

Disappointed also that we're not seeing more "Get out the Vote" campaigns that we seemed to see a great deal of in 2020.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Kacie said:

You also have to factor in that Hillary was extremely unlikable and always has been.  Heard her speaking at Sheila Jackson's funeral, and it was like nails on a chalkboard

So Ezra Klein did an hour with Tim Walz (NYT Podcast) and Walz made one of the more perceptive observations about how people react to politicians, and it was that what people react to is whether the pol projects that he likes his voters, more so than whether the voter thinks he would like the pol. Which partly explains Trump's appeal. He may be unlikable, but his emotional neediness toward his fans comes through loud and clear. And it fits Hillary exactly as well. It wasn't her appeal as a person you might like as much as  her dismissiveness toward other people, that if you met she wouldn't like/give you the time of day. That's what she couldn't hide. Which is why 'basket of deplorables' became so devastating for her - it confirmed an impression she already projected. And again, it may not be true of Hillary - I certainly don't know the woman, but it is how she comes across.

This observation is probably also at the heart of why female candidates have so much more difficulty threading the needle with many male voters. When men judge other male pols, they don't have as much reaction to whether they think the pol would like them, men tolerate other men they don't like all that much relatively well. But if a man thinks a woman doesn't like him, then it become a judgement on his manhood, so the reaction level goes exponential.

Edited August 3 by gehringer_2

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, Kacie said:

Y It's a shame Beau died when he did or we might have had 2 Biden terms and Trump would be looking for his latest grift or tv show.  

 

Beau might be running for President himself now.      I think he was just starting on that track.  

[Motor City Sonics]

Trump is gonna dump Vance and he's gonna try to do it the same day Kamala announces her VP pick and Trump's gonna pick Candace Owens so he can say " I have a REAL Black woman"

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

So Ezra Klein did an hour with Tim Walz (NYT Podcast) and Walz made one of the more perceptive observations about how people react to politicians, and it was that what people react to is whether the pol projects that he likes his voters, more so than whether the voter thinks he would like the pol. Which partly explains Trump's appeal. He may be unlikable, but his emotional neediness toward his fans comes through loud and clear. And it fits Hillary exactly as well. It wasn't her appeal as a person you might like as much as  her dismissiveness toward other people, that if you met she wouldn't like/give you the time of day. That's what she couldn't hide. Which is why 'basket of deplorables' became so devastating for her - it confirmed an impression she already projected. And again, it may not be true of Hillary - I certainly don't know the woman, but it is how she comes across.

This observation is probably also at the heart of why female candidates have so much more difficulty threading the needle with many male voters. When men judge other male pols, they don't have as much reaction to whether they think the pol would like them, men tolerate other men they don't like all that much relatively well. But if a man thinks a woman doesn't like him, then it become a judgement on his manhood, so the reaction level goes exponential.

Walz has been using the "weird" line for a long time as well... I remember seeing a clip of him from MSNBC from before Thanksgiving last year saying using that toward Trump. One of the criticisms is that this was some sort of work shopped/focus grouped line, and I don't think it's true. I think it went viral because JD Vance, in particular, gave it oxygen.

I didn't hear him with Ezra Klein, but I did hear him talk to one of the Pod Bros and he made a good point (one that has probably been adopted by the campaign and should be adopted by supporters) of using it only toward the candidate or his surrogates, not supporters. 

I don't doubt what you are saying about part of how "basket of deplorables" backfired, but Walz' point is important: keep the focus on the candidate.

Edited August 3 by mtutiger

[Tigeraholic1]

Harris refuses Fox debate. I guess we won’t have to watch the bicker after all. 

[Tigeraholic1]

5 hours ago, pfife said:

just wanted to let everyone know that I've agreed to become a moderator of this forum

I know you are trolling. No one would put you in charge of 3 year old birthday party. Just fun to state the obvious.

[pfife]

layer 4 more of the same failed burn different ways and it will be way funnier there guy

[VegasTiger]

6 minutes ago, pfife said:

layer 4 more of the same failed burn different ways and it will be way funnier there guy

(In best Timberlake does Robin Gibb voice): No...no it won't.

[mtutiger]

 

[romad1]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

So Ezra Klein did an hour with Tim Walz (NYT Podcast) and Walz made one of the more perceptive observations about how people react to politicians, and it was that what people react to is whether the pol projects that he likes his voters, more so than whether the voter thinks he would like the pol. Which partly explains Trump's appeal. He may be unlikable, but his emotional neediness toward his fans comes through loud and clear. And it fits Hillary exactly as well. It wasn't her appeal as a person you might like as much as  her dismissiveness toward other people, that if you met she wouldn't like/give you the time of day. That's what she couldn't hide. Which is why 'basket of deplorables' became so devastating for her - it confirmed an impression she already projected. And again, it may not be true of Hillary - I certainly don't know the woman, but it is how she comes across.

This observation is probably also at the heart of why female candidates have so much more difficulty threading the needle with many male voters. When men judge other male pols, they don't have as much reaction to whether they think the pol would like them, men tolerate other men they don't like all that much relatively well. But if a man thinks a woman doesn't like him, then it become a judgement on his manhood, so the reaction level goes exponential.

Leader/follower dynamics…

[mtutiger]

I still think the dynamics favor Shapiro, particularly if she *likes* him personally... But Tim Walz has impressed me a lot. His political instincts and image I think are worthy of the hype he has gotten throughout this process. 

I'd be fine with all of them, but my guy tells me that it comes down to Shapiro and Walz IMO

Edited August 3 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

If you aren't pure enough, you get purged...

Who wants to be a part of that?

[pfife]

Wanting to shrink the party is weird

[Tigerbomb13]

The GOP right now is being shaped now by Kyle Rittenhouse. Let that sink in. 

[romad1]

34 minutes ago, pfife said:

Wanting to shrink the party is weird

if they are planning to be a single party government it isn't.  But wanting to have that is weird.

[mtutiger]

34 minutes ago, pfife said:

Wanting to shrink the party is weird

We've come a long way from the "unity" message after someone took a shot at him

A lot of good conversations happened after that... I'm not surprised that nothing that was discussed mattered apparently

[romad1]

She needs to go home

 

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Leader/follower dynamics…

I think the way that "basket of deplorables" hurt Hillary is that she walked it back.   She should have hammered that point home.  Should have been as much a slogan as the Detroit Tigers "Just wait two more years".      Democrats wanted a fighter.   When she picked Tim Kaine, it showed she wasn't.     I know you don't want your VP to outshine you, but you don't want to bland yourself out of the race either.   

[Motor City Sonics]

5 minutes ago, romad1 said:

She needs to go home

 

She's got Susan Sarandon,  not much else. 

[Motor City Sonics]

I wonder...........Is Paul Whelan going to endorse Trump again?