mtutiger Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 This thread is probably the most cogent retelling of how we got here, from a position where Biden was down 2-3 to where Harris is now up 2-3 in national polling. And here is the upshot: People speculate about a "honeymoon", but I don't know why anyone that previously was indicating "undecided" or "third party" and is now indicating "Harris" would suddenly flip back or flip to Trump. She still has a lot of work to do, but the gains that she has made here seem mostly to be base consolidation.... beware commentators who attribute this to a "sugar high" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Great question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 (edited) 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: This thread is probably the most cogent retelling of how we got here, from a position where Biden was down 2-3 to where Harris is now up 2-3 in national polling. And here is the upshot: People speculate about a "honeymoon", but I don't know why anyone that previously was indicating "undecided" or "third party" and is now indicating "Harris" would suddenly flip back or flip to Trump. She still has a lot of work to do, but the gains that she has made here seem mostly to be base consolidation.... beware commentators who attribute this to a "sugar high" They'd flip back the same reason some potential Hillary voters flipped when the Comey Letter came out in October 2016. Harris, for better or worse right now, is still largely a blank slate to the average voter. There is a race to define her to undecided and swing voters. Trump and the Republicans haven't really been able to define her with a narrative that's stuck yet, ala Crooked Hillary. Trump is stumbling and slurring and flailing his way through awful nicknames and narratives. As is his party on the whole. But they'll keep trying until they feel they've found one they think works, if they can find a narrative at all. Trump may be simply too stupid and undisciplined to make anything work. She's too liberal, a radical leftist, too far to the right on certain issues, Border Czar, a tax and spend liberal, a floozy who slept her way to the top, whatever. Some of these swing voters flipped back to Trump, went third party, or left the top blank in 2016 in part because the Crooked Hillary narrative stuck and the Comey Letter was the last minute icing on the cake. So if they find a narrative that works and there is a confluence of events that add to that narrative, people could flip back as they did in 2016. I think it's highly unlikely to happen and I think Harris is much better positioned than Hillary was back then. People have gotten a taste of who Trump is now and how ****ing bananas his tenure in office was. So I do feel they're less likely to flip to Trump, to third party candidates or leave the top of the ticket blank. The things the Clinton campaign did to themselves that hurt them seem not to be happening here. She's campaigning everywhere, has messaging that's polling well, has a robust get out the vote effort, etc. I don't know that any of this will happen. Kamala may just, and hopefully will, win. I'm just trying to answer your question as best I can think of. Edited August 14 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 51 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Great question I would guess that Trump made donations in exhange for personal favors and didnt give a **** about what happened to SanFrancisco, California or America. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 5 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I would guess that Trump made donations in exhange for personal favors and didnt give a **** about what happened to SanFrancisco, California or America. Was just in SF area. It was not ruined. It was a multi-cultural city with a thriving immigrant population in which the city realizes is part of what makes the place special and a thriving hub of the 6th largest economy in the World. Culturally the one thing that surprised me...kind of like not seeing squirrels in the trees in Europe ... I never saw any gun stickers in any pickup truck windows. I saw a few homeless people but no more, no less than NYC, Washington, DC or Detroit my urban frames of reference. There was one guy on Fisherman's wharf who was hawking Trump merch. The city was efficient, well-organized and clean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 7 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: They'd flip back the same reason some potential Hillary voters flipped when the Comey Letter came out in October 2016. Harris, for better or worse right now, is still largely a blank slate to the average voter. There is a race to define her to undecided and swing voters. Trump and the Republicans haven't really been able to define her with a narrative that's stuck yet, ala Crooked Hillary. Trump is stumbling and slurring and flailing his way through awful nicknames and narratives. As is his party on the whole. But they'll keep trying until they feel they've found one they think works, if they can find a narrative at all. Trump may be simply too stupid and undisciplined to make anything work. She's too liberal, a radical leftist, too far to the right on certain issues, Border Czar, a tax and spend liberal, a floozy who slept her way to the top, whatever. Some of these swing voters flipped back to Trump, went third party, or left the top blank in 2016 in part because the Crooked Hillary narrative stuck and the Comey Letter was the last minute icing on the cake. So if they find a narrative that works and there is a confluence of events that add to that narrative, people could flip back as they did in 2016. I think it's highly unlikely to happen and I think Harris is much better positioned than Hillary was back then. People have gotten a taste of who Trump is now and how ****ing bananas his tenure in office was. So I do feel they're less likely to flip to Trump, to third party candidates or leave the top of the ticket blank. The things the Clinton campaign did to themselves that hurt them seem not to be happening here. She's campaigning everywhere, has messaging that's polling well, has a robust get out the vote effort, etc. I don't know that any of this will happen. Kamala may just, and hopefully will, win. I'm just trying to answer your question as best I can think of. I understand.... I think point number two carries a lot less weight given the nature of these voters (Biden 2020 voters -> undecided), ideologically, they are not fellow travelers with Trump. Point number one is theoretically possible, but for Trump's campaign, it would be dangerous to rely on this happening as it is something that is out of his control and, by and large, would require some massive mistake / black swan event that would damage Harris. Your second point will matter more as we get further into the election and the battle starts to be over swing and undecided voters... as far as definition is concerned, it's honestly been shocking at how ineffective they have been at trying to define Harris, and it seems like the month between the Biden dropout and Chicago is an extremely important time for which to do it. A lot of it has to do with the fact that commercials / paid media can only do so much.... they have some ads out hitting her on the subjects you would expect them to, but they only go so far when the guy at the top can't hammer a theme and rambles about other, less effective **** when rallying (ie. culture war ****) Overall, the bigger piece that I think Crosstab Hater is getting at is understanding why pre-debate polls were showing what they were.... despite the framing of there being many Biden->Trump voters by many pundits, the polls almost always were showing Biden lagging in share among Dem voters. Which means it was all about enthusiasm, and that the voters were being lost either to the couch or to third parties. With Harris in the race, that dynamic is upended. And it's hard to see with that particular dynamic being upended how it could be attributed to an ephemeral bounce or sugar high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I know these areas in Ohio overlap into Pennsylvania and Michigan, but I think they are testing the waters in Ohio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I know these areas in Ohio overlap into Pennsylvania and Michigan, but I think they are testing the waters in Ohio. Alpena!? I can't think of a whiter place in all of Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I doubt this will happen but... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 (edited) 9 minutes ago, romad1 said: Alpena!? I can't think of a whiter place in all of Michigan. I would personally invest in Traverse City since that area is moving left. They may already be. It’s about cutting into the margins up north. Alpena is probably cheap. This was the same tactic Benson had. She put ads all over the state and not just the blue areas. Edited August 14 by Motown Bombers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: I understand.... I think point number two carries a lot less weight given the nature of these voters (Biden 2020 voters -> undecided), ideologically, they are not fellow travelers with Trump. Point number one is theoretically possible, but for Trump's campaign, it would be dangerous to rely on this happening as it is something that is out of his control and, by and large, would require some massive mistake / black swan event that would damage Harris. Your second point will matter more as we get further into the election and the battle starts to be over swing and undecided voters... as far as definition is concerned, it's honestly been shocking at how ineffective they have been at trying to define Harris, and it seems like the month between the Biden dropout and Chicago is an extremely important time for which to do it. A lot of it has to do with the fact that commercials / paid media can only do so much.... they have some ads out hitting her on the subjects you would expect them to, but they only go so far when the guy at the top can't hammer a theme and rambles about other, less effective **** when rallying (ie. culture war ****) Overall, the bigger piece that I think Crosstab Hater is getting at is understanding why pre-debate polls were showing what they were.... despite the framing of there being many Biden->Trump voters by many pundits, the polls almost always were showing Biden lagging in share among Dem voters. Which means it was all about enthusiasm, and that the voters were being lost either to the couch or to third parties. With Harris in the race, that dynamic is upended. And it's hard to see with that particular dynamic being upended how it could be attributed to an ephemeral bounce or sugar high. My brief summary of this is simply that there were a lot of previous Biden voters who were not going to vote this year if it were Biden/Trump. There are also previous Trump voters who are not going to vote this year, and still won't. But not as many as the first group. With Harris on the ticket, a lot of those in the first group are now going to vote and she's not lost a statistically significant number of previous Biden voters. This runs counter to my conventional wisdom but the polls and enthusiasm we see show I was wrong. She elevated her base and did nothing to Trump's base. The D's had room to grow, the R's are maxed out. I saw a tweet earlier today that replayed a Nikki Haley quote from February. She said the first ticket to drop their 80 year old candidate would win. The next President will be a female, either her or Harris. She was right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 This seems like it might be a plant from the nevertrump mischief-makers but also..fun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 51 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I know these areas in Ohio overlap into Pennsylvania and Michigan, but I think they are testing the waters in Ohio. Toledo is a perfect market if you are looking to put a little money into Ohio while hedging it as an investment in Michigan.... Never understood why Biden didn't do it in 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 10 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: But I thought we were a constitutional republic and not a democracy?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Toledo is a perfect market if you are looking to put a little money into Ohio while hedging it as an investment in Michigan.... Never understood why Biden didn't do it in 20 What part of Michigan is really in the Toledo market? Isn’t Monroe in the Detroit market or both? I like testing the waters with some smaller markets before investing in Cleveland, Cincinnati or Columbus. Also, Harris will be campaigning in Michigan and Pennsylvania. You literally have to go through Ohio to go between them. Would it hurt to just make a stop in Cleveland for a rally? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 24 minutes ago, oblong said: My brief summary of this is simply that there were a lot of previous Biden voters who were not going to vote this year if it were Biden/Trump. There are also previous Trump voters who are not going to vote this year, and still won't. But not as many as the first group. With Harris on the ticket, a lot of those in the first group are now going to vote and she's not lost a statistically significant number of previous Biden voters. This runs counter to my conventional wisdom but the polls and enthusiasm we see show I was wrong. She elevated her base and did nothing to Trump's base. The D's had room to grow, the R's are maxed out. The real tell for months was that rarely, if ever, did Trump pull 50% share in any of the national or state polling, even when he had sizable leads. At least until the last week or so before Biden dropped out. It was wild that pundits never picked up on it, but then again, motivated reasoning could be at play there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: What part of Michigan is really in the Toledo market? Isn’t Monroe in the Detroit market or both? I like testing the waters with some smaller markets before investing in Cleveland, Cincinnati or Columbus. Also, Harris will be campaigning in Michigan and Pennsylvania. You literally have to go through Ohio to go between them. Would it hurt to just make a stop in Cleveland for a rally? Lenawee is as well... Both Monroe and Lenawee are red counties, but voters in Adrian and Monroe can help change margin with better minority/Dem turnout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 9 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: They'd flip back the same reason some potential Hillary voters flipped when the Comey Letter came out in October 2016. Harris, for better or worse right now, is still largely a blank slate to the average voter. There is a race to define her to undecided and swing voters. Trump and the Republicans haven't really been able to define her with a narrative that's stuck yet, ala Crooked Hillary. Trump is stumbling and slurring and flailing his way through awful nicknames and narratives. As is his party on the whole. But they'll keep trying until they feel they've found one they think works, if they can find a narrative at all. Trump may be simply too stupid and undisciplined to make anything work. She's too liberal, a radical leftist, too far to the right on certain issues, Border Czar, a tax and spend liberal, a floozy who slept her way to the top, whatever. Some of these swing voters flipped back to Trump, went third party, or left the top blank in 2016 in part because the Crooked Hillary narrative stuck and the Comey Letter was the last minute icing on the cake. So if they find a narrative that works and there is a confluence of events that add to that narrative, people could flip back as they did in 2016. I think it's highly unlikely to happen and I think Harris is much better positioned than Hillary was back then. People have gotten a taste of who Trump is now and how ****ing bananas his tenure in office was. So I do feel they're less likely to flip to Trump, to third party candidates or leave the top of the ticket blank. The things the Clinton campaign did to themselves that hurt them seem not to be happening here. She's campaigning everywhere, has messaging that's polling well, has a robust get out the vote effort, etc. I don't know that any of this will happen. Kamala may just, and hopefully will, win. I'm just trying to answer your question as best I can think of. While this all makes sense on the surface, I do think the more Trump goes off the rails and his media attack dogs follow him, the less likely these voters will flip back to undecided. I think they will choose to vote for someone who is, honestly, less of an enigma than Obama was in 2008, because they will not want to do even slightest thing, such as sit on the sidelines this November, that would help that crazy orange mother****er win back the White House. That's a message a not-insignificant portion of the Harris surrogates will be driving home during the home stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: Lenawee is as well... Both Monroe and Lenawee are red counties, but voters in Adrian and Monroe can help change margin with better minority/Dem turnout But if they’re already in the Detroit market, they are already being targeted. I’m wondering what markets in Michigan are in the Toledo market but not Detroit market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 i really hope RFK JR pulls more from Trump than Biden. I want that strategy to be a self-inflicted wound on those scheming bastards who cooked it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: But if they’re already in the Detroit market, they are already being targeted. I’m wondering what markets in Michigan are in the Toledo market but not Detroit market. Speaking from experience (family in the county), the locals in Lenawee county primarily watch Toledo stations. Cannot speak to Monroe, but there's probably at least a bit of overlap there as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 hours ago, romad1 said: Was just in SF area. It was not ruined. It was a multi-cultural city with a thriving immigrant population in which the city realizes is part of what makes the place special and a thriving hub of the 6th largest economy in the World. Culturally the one thing that surprised me...kind of like not seeing squirrels in the trees in Europe ... I never saw any gun stickers in any pickup truck windows. I saw a few homeless people but no more, no less than NYC, Washington, DC or Detroit my urban frames of reference. There was one guy on Fisherman's wharf who was hawking Trump merch. The city was efficient, well-organized and clean. They must have cleaned it up in recent years, because I did business in Frisco occasionally during the 1999-2004 timeframe, and that place was filthy with garbage on the streets because, like NYC, it is a super congested city with no alleys. They also had more homeless people than I'd even seen outside of LA, and pretty aggressive, too. But all this was 20+ years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 hours ago, romad1 said: Was just in SF area. It was not ruined. It was a multi-cultural city with a thriving immigrant population in which the city realizes is part of what makes the place special and a thriving hub of the 6th largest economy in the World. I know it's not ruined. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 minutes ago, chasfh said: They must have cleaned it up in recent years, because I did business in Frisco occasionally during the 1999-2004 timeframe, and that place was filthy with garbage on the streets because, like NYC, it is a super congested city with no alleys. They also had more homeless people than I'd even seen outside of LA, and pretty aggressive, too. But all this was 20+ years ago. NYC learning the magic of trash bins in 2024 was like 40 years late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 13 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: What part of Michigan is really in the Toledo market? Isn’t Monroe in the Detroit market or both? I like testing the waters with some smaller markets before investing in Cleveland, Cincinnati or Columbus. Also, Harris will be campaigning in Michigan and Pennsylvania. You literally have to go through Ohio to go between them. Would it hurt to just make a stop in Cleveland for a rally? Now that Ohio is actually in play, Toledo makes a lot of sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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