2024 Presidential Election thread

Hongbit · July 2, 2023

On 6/30/2023 at 5:13 PM, chasfh said:

FYI, this is the chart from last month's year-over-year inflation report:

The bottom line number came in at 4%, and as we can see, almost a third of that is tied up in last June alone, which is now 12 months ago.

Once that month falls off the year-over-year period with next month's report, there's a good chance the overall number is going to come in at two-point-something, which is gonna make everyone throw their hats up into the air and shout "huzzah!" Well, at least those of us over sixty. 😁

I might increase my positions in some stock indexes before then.

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Be very, very careful making future predictions based on these numbers. We were supposed to see similar falloffs in YoY numbers a few times already this year and did not. The numbers are being manipulated to try and get a soft landing instead of a recession going into an election year. The CPI and jobs reports over the past few months have been odd. Too many random anomalies (look at used cars YoY), staggering variances between the results of different surveys used, and out of the blue “updates to seasonal adjustment methodologies” are just of few areas. This is still a rigged game so make absolutely positive you are on the right side before playing.

Edited July 2, 2023 by Hongbit

Tiger337 · July 2, 2023

On 7/2/2023 at 4:22 PM, Hongbit said:

Be very, very careful making future predictions based on these numbers. We were supposed to see similar falloffs in YoY numbers a few times already this year and did not. The numbers are being manipulated to try and get a soft landing instead of a recession going into an election year. The CPI and jobs reports over the past few months have been odd. Too many random anomalies (look at used cars YoY) and “updates to seasonal adjustment methodologies” are just of few areas. This is still a rigged game so make absolutely positive you are on the right side before playing.

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It's all a game, but one might bet that the rigged stock market will follow the rigged fed numbers.

Of course, it's best just to make a plan and stick with it, which is what I do 90% of the time.

CMRivdogs · July 2, 2023

This has to be the sickest and most bazaar ad produced for a candidate I've ever seen. Who in their right mind support whomever approved this ad?

gehringer_2 · July 2, 2023

On 7/2/2023 at 9:05 PM, CMRivdogs said:

This has to be the sickest and most bazaar ad produced for a candidate I've ever seen. Who in their right mind support whomever approved this ad?

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sounds like a guy that has a hell of a case of pen is envy.

Edited July 2, 2023 by gehringer_2

jz68 · July 2, 2023

Desantis thought he would be able to enter the race and be there to step in as the front runner after Trump got indicted. He didn't expect Trump's followers to stand by him the way they have so now he's shifting tactics and trying to go even further right in hopes of appealing to the hateful idiots that follow Trump.

gehringer_2 · July 2, 2023

On 7/2/2023 at 10:10 PM, gehringer_2 said:

sounds like a guy that has a hell of a case of pen is envy.

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Hope they make a big push with this ad. Should really help poison the well among those suburban women for all GOP candidates.

ewsieg · July 3, 2023

On 7/2/2023 at 10:51 PM, jz68 said:

Desantis thought he would be able to enter the race and be there to step in as the front runner after Trump got indicted. He didn't expect Trump's followers to stand by him the way they have so now he's shifting tactics and trying to go even further right in hopes of appealing to the hateful idiots that follow Trump.

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Desantis had voters like my mom in his pocket. They were sympathetic to Trump and were going to vote GOP regardless, but were tired of Trump and felt his antics only made things worse. I think that's why early he setup as the clear contender or successor to Trump. That said, instead of keeping those voters and trying to pick off more voters, he's spent 2 years backing every bill in Florida that he could use to court those hard core Trump voters. He's not pulling those Trump voters and losing his original base. Too bad, so sad.

gehringer_2 · July 3, 2023

On 7/3/2023 at 2:57 PM, ewsieg said:

Too bad, so sad.

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Ain't it the truth.

oblong · July 4, 2023

He’s also totally unlikable. Has no personality at all. Robotic. He’s like Nixon in that regard. It’s fun to see all the trumpies respond to his teams tweets. It’s not pretty.

romad1 · July 4, 2023

@CMRivdogs others, noticed while driving through the Northern Neck area that the Trumpies were not as feverish of late. They still exist but they aren't as widespread.

to the non-Virginia tax payers...that's Westmoreland and Northumberland counties. Those went 53-45 for Trump and 57-41 for Trump respectively in 2020.

Edited July 4, 2023 by romad1

Tiger337 · July 4, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 12:07 AM, oblong said:

He’s also totally unlikable. Has no personality at all. Robotic. He’s like Nixon in that regard. It’s fun to see all the trumpies respond to his teams tweets. It’s not pretty.

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He is Trump with no personality at all. It doesn't get much worse than that.

gehringer_2 · July 4, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 1:09 AM, Tiger337 said:

He is Trump with no personality at all. It doesn't get much worse than that.

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It tells you how odd Fla politics must be. In most places it's generally hard to get elected to anything if you generate that kind of personal miasma around yourself.

Edited July 4, 2023 by gehringer_2

Tiger337 · July 4, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 1:20 AM, gehringer_2 said:

It tells you how odd Fla politics must be. In most places it's generally hard to get elected to anything if you generate that kind of personal miasma around yourself.

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Mike Pence has made it work in Indiana.

gehringer_2 · July 4, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 1:25 AM, Tiger337 said:

Mike Pence has made it work in Indiana.

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IDK - Pence doesn't seem like he'd be a bad guy to have to spend non-political time around. Believes a lot of bat-**** crazy stuff yes, but he's sort of an old school polite, courtly kind of guy. To me he's like Romney without the chic and the Saville-Row suits: A guy I'd trust my stuff with, just not my government.

CMRivdogs · July 4, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 12:28 AM, romad1 said:

@CMRivdogs others, noticed while driving through the Northern Neck area that the Trumpies were not as feverish of late. They still exist but they aren't as widespread.

to the non-Virginia tax payers...that's Westmoreland and Northumberland counties. Those went 53-45 for Trump and 57-41 for Trump respectively in 2020.

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My Congress critter lives there (Tappahannock), he's pretty Trumpy. We still a fair number of flags heading back Saturday thru Washington, Pa, into Winchester and down toward Fredericksburg be fore we got hit by the monsoon. I agree, just not a prominent as in the past. There are still a few in the Virginia portion of Pennsylvania that have numerous yard "decorations"

Just an aside, it was just this weekend that I learned that the area around Washington and Pittsburgh Pa was considered part of the Virginia Colony in the 1750s.

Also how G Washington could afford to accumulate all his properties for being a poor boy from Stafford.

Dan Gilmore · July 4, 2023

Sorry, Pence strikes me as very untrustworthy. Preaches all the bible stuff but signs on for the Trump ticket- twice! He seems like a guy you figured out a path for attention, fame, and yes, fortune by pretending to be that calm moral compass for people to gravitate too. **** him.

oblong · July 4, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 1:20 AM, gehringer_2 said:

It tells you how odd Fla politics must be. In most places it's generally hard to get elected to anything if you generate that kind of personal miasma around yourself.

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He barely won in ‘18 and in ‘22 ran against a bad candidate that alienated both parties over his mixed career. He could be a benefactor of incredible luck and not all that after all.

romad1 · July 4, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 2:10 AM, CMRivdogs said:

My Congress critter lives there (Tappahannock), he's pretty Trumpy. We still a fair number of flags heading back Saturday thru Washington, Pa, into Winchester and down toward Fredericksburg be fore we got hit by the monsoon. I agree, just not a prominent as in the past. There are still a few in the Virginia portion of Pennsylvania that have numerous yard "decorations"

Just an aside, it was just this weekend that I learned that the area around Washington and Pittsburgh Pa was considered part of the Virginia Colony in the 1750s.

Also how G Washington could afford to accumulate all his properties for being a poor boy from Stafford.

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G. Washington was also childless and therefore not able to vote on Twitter Uberlord Musk's Martian colony

1984Echoes · July 4, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 2:51 AM, Dan Gilmore said:

Sorry, Pence strikes me as very untrustworthy. Preaches all the bible stuff but ...

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That's all I needed to hear...

chasfh · July 5, 2023

On 7/2/2023 at 9:05 PM, CMRivdogs said:

This has to be the sickest and most bazaar ad produced for a candidate I've ever seen. Who in their right mind support whomever approved this ad?

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My favorite part is his decision to include the homoerotic imagery as a way to show off his he-man bona fides to his gay-bashing base. I mean, really: tell us without telling us, Ron …

Tiger337 · July 5, 2023

I don't get that ad. Was that an ad favoring Trump or DeSantis? It was confusing.

Tigerbomb13 · July 5, 2023

It’s maybe the worst ad I’ve ever seen. Showed it to a friend and he thought it was a pro-Trump ad. Also, why is there a shot of Patrick Bateman from American Psycho in it? Is that someone DeSantis really wants to emulate?