2024 Presidential Election thread

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

When did Florida stop becoming a battleground? It’s been a battleground for the past couple decades and the margin in 2020 was the same as Michigan? 

Florida trended hard against the D ticket in 2020, although it can be competitive in the right circumstances (which may be possible given where things have been going since Harris was elevated).

But in terms of tipping points, if Florida goes for Kamala Harris, in all likelihood they have already won MI/WI/PA/AZ/NV/GA/NC and the election. Given the centrality of those seven states and given the size and expense of both Florida, it's hard for a campaign, even one that has raised as much money as Harris has, to commit maximal resources to it without impacting states that are closer to the tipping point.

I can see scenarios where it would make sense to spend a little money or even dedicate a few visits to FL or TX, but they cannot take their eyes off the ball (which are the seven states)

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

They are chaos agents. They’ll move onto something else. 

That's true of some of them, but I think a lot of them are just dilettantes that are trying it on for size and basically just passing through. I think that's especially true of college age kids who have been freed to think for themselves for the first time, and they're just trying on different ideologies as they would new shoes. I am convinced the vast majority of them mean no harm, and some of the protesters probably couldn't articulate any real philosophy behind it. They just know tens of thousands are people in Gaza are being liquidated by IDF and that horrifies them, and really, I think it's hard to blame them.

[Motor City Sonics]

47 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I feel like the Trump campaign has some dirt on Shapiro and are upset Harris didn’t pick him. Why do they spend so much energy on a VP candidate she didn’t choose?

Yeah, that dirt is that he's Jewish.   

[RatkoVarda]

theory was that a Shapiro nomination gets Trump Michigan. Saturate Hamtramck with neg ads about Gaza; and Trump pulls out a squeaker.

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

theory was that a Shapiro nomination gets Trump Michigan. Saturate Hamtramck with neg ads about Gaza; and Trump pulls out a squeaker.

If that was the theory, it's a really terrible one; a shift in Hamtramck would be wiped out almost instantaneously by a 0.5% shift left in Oakland County (which it seems likely Oakland will shift left this cycle again)

Edited August 22, 2024 by mtutiger

[RatkoVarda]

I didn't say it was a good theory

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I didn't say it was a good theory

That's fair.... it's just been sort of amusing this entire election cycle how people cannot apply any sort of perspective to the overall demographics of Michigan, especially since the I/P conflict broke out.

For Trump, it's definitely all motivated reasoning / clinging to things to divide, no argument there.

[Tigerbomb13]

Of course this horrible person went there. 

[romad1]

10 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

That's fair.... it's just been sort of amusing this entire election cycle how people cannot apply any sort of perspective to the overall demographics of Michigan, especially since the I/P conflict broke out.

For Trump, it's definitely all motivated reasoning / clinging to things to divide, no argument there.

Is the right term "deterministic thinking?"  

Quote

“if x, then y.” It is the notion that if we do something (x), a particular outcome (y) is inevitable. 

Like it isn't even mitigated by tone, by other events.  Humanity doesn't play a part to the attempted alchemy of events. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RatkoVarda]

Good. Park giant video trucks all over NJ showing cops being beaten.

[mtutiger]

19 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I know that it's Ron F. sharing this and all, but JFC

[Motown Bombers]

I can't believe anybody in Trump's campaign would have said that is a good idea. 

[oblong]

They are admitting that "normal" people are lost to them so they are doubling down on the crazies and the weird and need to draw up their enthusiasm.  It's a direct appeal to the fascists among us.

It should be very easy to counterprogram that.  It's all on video.  And throw in the comments immediately after by Republicans.

 

[Hongbit]

32 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I know that it's Ron F. sharing this and all, but JFC

If you don't want to engage on things that involve them, feel free to ignore and move along next time. Rather than thread policing [/s]

[oblong]

 

[oblong]

Major celebrity, like T Swift or a Palestinian supporter.

 

[Hongbit]

Curious if it’s legal for a business to give out something of value to people that vote?

example: If you show me a “I Voted” sticker then you get $2 off a foot long at Subway on the day after the election.  

Edited August 22, 2024 by Hongbit

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, oblong said:

Major celebrity, like T Swift or a Palestinian supporter.

 

Guess it’s time to check that Taylor Swift flight tracker account and see if it is in Chicago 

[mtutiger]

19 minutes ago, oblong said:

Major celebrity, like T Swift or a Palestinian supporter.

 

George W Bush?

[romad1]

19 minutes ago, oblong said:

Major celebrity, like T Swift or a Palestinian supporter.

 

the swifties will lose their mind when also considering that T Swifts plane returned from the UK 13 hours ago

[romad1]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Guess it’s time to check that Taylor Swift flight tracker account and see if it is in Chicago 

according to the bluesky tracker version it landed in Nashville 21 hours ago

[mtutiger]

Don't look now, but Harris is pretty close to 2020 benchmarks with Hispanics in Arizona...

[oblong]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

George W Bush?

That would be cool.