oblong Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: Something to keep an eye on... The big prize for Trump is that he'll be off in PA, but he's probably still going to be on the ballot in some of the other states If his votes and Jr's votes are more than VPOTUS... wait for him, and the party, to claim that he should win the state. You know it will happen. They might even try to file it in court or as an objection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Just now, Mr.TaterSalad said: There has been a lot of empty seats at his rallies I have been noticing as of late. Now, that might not mean anything. But having empty seats in large arenas isn't usually a sign of the campaign with all the energy and momentum. That said, he increased his turnout from 2016 to 2020 and brought new people into the fold. So maybe rally attendance and enthusiasm matters not. I also notice they're doing smaller events.... just standing in front of cops in a strip mall or whatever. An old Nixon trick in one of his first campaigns, either the House or Senate, was he had a mole on the advance staff of his opponent. He'd book them in very large spaces so that it looked like nobody was there with the empty seats. 100 people in a 500 person room is worse than 75 in a 75 person room. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 (edited) I'm a big Simpsons fan and love relating things to the show, especially the early seasons of The Simpsons when it had smart, sophisticated humor. Trump is the Presidential version of Lionel Hutz Attorney at Law. There's an episode where Bart gets hit by a car and ends up in the hospital. Lionel Hutz shows up and promises the Simpson family the world in a lawsuit and delivers nothing in the end. During the episode Lisa asks Lionel Hutz if he is a shyster and Huts responds back, "How does a little girl like you know a big word like that." Edited August 27 by Mr.TaterSalad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: There has been a lot of empty seats at his rallies I have been noticing as of late. Now, that might not mean anything. But having empty seats in large arenas isn't usually a sign of the campaign with all the energy and momentum. That said, he increased his turnout from 2016 to 2020 and brought new people into the fold. So maybe rally attendance and enthusiasm matters not. He was drawing really huge crowds in 2020 though, especially given COVID going on. My own sense is that between the crowd size, tepid grassroots fundraising and just the overall muted signs of his support driving around (living in a relatively red area, albeit in a blue state), the energy isn't really where it has been in past cycles. Even just discussing with some more conservative folks in my life, I get a sense of exhaustion as well. It doesn't mean he cannot win, but I'm also not going to pretend to not see what is readily apparent either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 2 minutes ago, mtutiger said: He was drawing really huge crowds in 2020 though, especially given COVID going on. My own sense is that between the crowd size, tepid grassroots fundraising and just the overall muted signs of his support driving around (living in a relatively red area, albeit in a blue state), the energy isn't really where it has been in past cycles. Even just discussing with some more conservative folks in my life, I get a sense of exhaustion as well. It doesn't mean he cannot win, but I'm also not going to pretend to not see what is readily apparent either. I don't see quite the same pizzazz or energy that I saw in 2020 this year either. It doesn't mean he can't or won't drive up turn out again this year for Republicans. I just don't get the sense that enthusiasm is quite as high this time around. Hopefully it isn't and people stay home that voted for him in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Speaking of enthusiasm and momentum . . . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 8 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I don't see quite the same pizzazz or energy that I saw in 2020 this year either. It doesn't mean he can't or won't drive up turn out again this year for Republicans. I just don't get the sense that enthusiasm is quite as high this time around. Hopefully it isn't and people stay home that voted for him in 2020. Another theory too is that, because of COVID and because so many people were impacted / stuck inside during that period, raised the salience of politics a lot more in people's lives and drove insane turnout that is likely not to be replicated on either side in 2024. I would be shocked if either side turns out as much as they did in 2020, so setting aside persuasion (it does matter to a degree) and registering new voters, the ballgame comes down turning out / motivating as many 2020 voters as possible to get back out again in 2024. On that front, there's more work to be done, but I think that Harris is on the right track from what I can see 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 10 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Speaking of enthusiasm and momentum . . . this is where the rubber meets the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: this is where the rubber meets the road. If voter registration over the past month is any indicator of enthusiasm and electoral success, it all seems to be on the Democrats side. It seems to be women, women of color, young people, and young women of color really driving the registration boom. I highly doubt these people are registering to vote for Trump and the GOP. Their electorate is only getting older, though not persay whiter given the Hispanic vote they've pealed off. Can they make up the difference in new voter registration with enthusiasm or turnout of their own, sure, but adding way more new voters on the Democratic side certainly makes that task harder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Tom Bonier has a lot of good data points on his Twitter account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 We saw this kind of voter registration after Dobbs and it lead to Democrats blunting the red wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Just now, Mr.TaterSalad said: Tom Bonier has a lot of good data points on his Twitter account. I especially liked Ohio. Can the women flip the Buckeye state? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 what is the impact of JD Vance being removed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: We saw this kind of voter registration after Dobbs and it lead to Democrats blunting the red wave. The more I think about it, the more I think "We won't go back" is exactly the slogan to drive turnout for this election. Ever since the 60's when the civil rights legislation was codified, you could live in America and not bother to vote and make a pretty good assumption that other than maybe some tweaking around your marginal tax rate, your life wasn't going to change because of who was elected. Let the experts argue out policy, you didn't really care. (You would have been wrong because long term economic mismanagement by the GOP has effected everyone, but in ways that were too subtle and gradual to notice contemporaneously.) But Dobbs was a wake call for everyone, but especially the young, that in the US politics are not immune from going backward and that you do have a liberty interest that you need to get out and vote to protect. And thank heaven for JD Vance who is playing into that narrative better than any Dem could ever have hoped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 This seems full of vinegar Quote Yesterday the New York Times published an op-ed by Rich Lowry arguing that Donald Trump can beat Kamala Harris by attacking her character and calling her “weak.” Why did they publish this piece? Lowry’s essay isn’t aimed at Times readers. He is not explaining reality.1 His op-ed does not add any value for the NYT audience. The piece is little more than a memo to the Trump campaign. Lowry thinks he has an insight into how Trump could attack Harris, but because no one at the campaign cares what Rich has to say, he convinced the Times op-ed page to mule his ideas directly to Trump. Why would America’s paper of record consent to be used like this by a conservative sad-sack?2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: I especially liked Ohio. Can the women flip the Buckeye state? In a dream world Ohio is still the purple swing state it once was. They just haven't seen the rapid growth in their suburban areas (Cleveland/Akron, Cincinnati, Columbus) with college educated voters that places like Atlanta and Phoenix have been seeing. I think for the foreseeable future Ohio will be stuck in that gap of 5-7% away from Democrats being able to flip it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: In a dream world Ohio is still the purple swing state it once was. They just haven't seen the rapid growth in their suburban areas (Cleveland/Akron, Cincinnati, Columbus) with college educated voters that places like Atlanta and Phoenix have been seeing. I think for the foreseeable future Ohio will be stuck in that gap of 5-7% away from Democrats being able to flip it. One thing that is or at least the Dems need to put in play in Ohio besides women is Trump's tariff take. OH (and MN) = huge soybean farming state and in a tariff war with China soybeans are likely to be the 1st casualty. The farmers in OH may think culture is running amok, but they also know which side their soy sauce is spread on. Edited August 27 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 (edited) 2 hours ago, CMRivdogs said: All part of the plan for a new US Oligarchy Regressive tax policy is key to understanding one of the major drivers for the oligarchy's support of the Christian right. Regressive tax policy is morally justified under prosperity gospel because wealth is ratified by God. You poor schmucks are only paying the higher tax rates you deserve because you are too sinful to have gotten rich yourself so you have no grounds to dispute the tax blessedness of your betters. Edited August 27 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 On the ballot in WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Increasingly coming around on the idea that getting RFK Jr. to drop out was all about PA, which is one state where he was successful in getting off the ballot. And which the election hinges on more than any other Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: In a dream world Ohio is still the purple swing state it once was. They just haven't seen the rapid growth in their suburban areas (Cleveland/Akron, Cincinnati, Columbus) with college educated voters that places like Atlanta and Phoenix have been seeing. I think for the foreseeable future Ohio will be stuck in that gap of 5-7% away from Democrats being able to flip it. A lot will depend on rural areas too.... Dems will not win in many of these areas but trimming margins in these places matters a lot. Obviously he still lost by a lot, but Biden did manage to win back vote share in a lot of areas of the Upper Midwest, which made a difference, particularly in WI and PA. In general, I do think the Dem Party has come a long way in understanding that turning 75-25 counties into 70-30 or 65-35 can go a long way.... the votes all count the same regardless of where they are cast. With respect to Ohio, if they were to have any chance there, it would have to involve more of this.... Ohio is just tougher than much of the Midwest (particularly MI and WI) because so much of the southern part of the state is Appalachia adjacent, and much more hostile to Dems than even conservative parts of MI or WI are. Edited August 27 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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