2024 Presidential Election thread

[chasfh]

I feel really good about the turnout for Kamala and against Trump. That’s going to be at least close to a record. The two wild cards are how enthusiastic will be the turnout for Trump, and how effective the Kamala vote can be suppressed in places like Georgia and Florida. I don’t worry about that as much in Pennsylvania or the other battleground states.

[oblong]

The thing about supression is that's where the ground game comes in and from what I see Kamala has a tremendous ground game.  In 2020 we were still dealing with covid issues and all of that.  I can't help but think turnout on the D side will be very high based on what we see at the rallies.  

Our local democratic club has burned through 3 batches of signs. 

[Motor City Sonics]

17 minutes ago, oblong said:

The thing about supression is that's where the ground game comes in and from what I see Kamala has a tremendous ground game.  In 2020 we were still dealing with covid issues and all of that.  I can't help but think turnout on the D side will be very high based on what we see at the rallies.  

Our local democratic club has burned through 3 batches of signs. 

I still see more Trump signs on lawns, but I think folks might be like me -  I think some Trump supporters are so unstable that if I put a sign out in front of my house, my tires will get slashed or something like that.   It's a cult.  Cults do crazy things.  

[Motor City Sonics]

Dear Trump supporters.    Dear Leader has acquired some land in Guyana and the great thing is that it already has huts and a pavilion - built in the 70s.     You can live under Dear Leader's unquestioned rule as he gets on the mic several times a day and speaks (rambling incoherent) truths to you.   And if any reporters or Congresspeople come snooping around, we know how to deal with them.    Come on down and live in the perfect world of Trumptown.    There's plenty to drink too !

[romad1]

4 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I still see more Trump signs on lawns, but I think folks might be like me -  I think some Trump supporters are so unstable that if I put a sign out in front of my house, my tires will get slashed or something like that.   It's a cult.  Cults do crazy things.  

This is wisdom.  They are weird and they celebrate school shootings. 

[Motor City Sonics]

She ought to know.  She was shot in Guyana

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/congresswoman-jackie-speier-jonestown-survivor-trump-has-all-the-trappings-of-being-the-next-jim-jones/ar-BB1oFf6E

[Motor City Sonics]

The difference between Trump and Jim Jones is there was a time when Jim Jones actually did help people - especially the homeless - then he figured out he could grift people.       Trump was always a grifter and never did a goddamned thing for anyone else in his life. 

[romad1]

 

[Tigerbomb13]

32 minutes ago, oblong said:

The thing about supression is that's where the ground game comes in and from what I see Kamala has a tremendous ground game.  In 2020 we were still dealing with covid issues and all of that.  I can't help but think turnout on the D side will be very high based on what we see at the rallies.  

Our local democratic club has burned through 3 batches of signs. 

I ordered signs through the Harris campaign site and there was a delay due to such high demand. They finally came yesterday so we should start seeing a lot more signs in the coming week or two. 

[oblong]

16 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I still see more Trump signs on lawns, but I think folks might be like me -  I think some Trump supporters are so unstable that if I put a sign out in front of my house, my tires will get slashed or something like that.   It's a cult.  Cults do crazy things.  

Have you seen the house on Pelham, just N of Outer Dr with the big banner of Trump raising his fist after some glass cut his hear?

 

[romad1]

I'm very curious to see the next shoe drop in the Russian influence investigation.   

Nate Silver might be a direction to look. 

[romad1]

Chickens are coming home to roost

[mtutiger]

We're getting to a point in terms of the marginal utility of money where Kamala probably oughta throw a little bit at Texas and Florida, if for nothing else to try and help Allred and Marcusal-Powell in their Senate races... Particularly if Montana is shaky.

The top 7 come first, but at this level of fundraising, it isn't "either/or"

Edited September 6, 2024 by mtutiger

[romad1]

so, we think this related to the Russian influence story?

 

[mtutiger]

As always, laser focused on the important issues like *checks notes* defaming his accusers

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

We're getting to a point in terms of the marginal utility of money where Kamala probably oughta throw a little bit at Texas and Florida, if for nothing else to try and help Allred and Marcusal-Powell in their Senate races... Particularly if Montana is shaky.

The top 7 come first, but at this level of fundraising, it isn't "either/or"

Just to flesh this out a little more, because everyone thinks about 2016 and Hillary's mistakes in investing time and money expanding the map, I am as cognizant as anyone to the idea that her campaign cannot take their eye off of the generally accepted swing states (ie. PA/MI/WI/AZ/NV/GA/NC). Certainly don't think Kamala or Tim Walz need to be having many rallies or bus tours outside of these states.

But at some point, when you have 60 days left and $400 million in the bank (a little over $100 mil more than Trump's campaign), you are going to reach the point of diminishing returns really quickly if you only focus on these seven states.... and you cannot take this money with you, it needs to be spent and put towards something. Whether it's through contributions to Congressional/Senate CCs, state parties, and/or investing in targeted expansions of the map. 

The other part is that states along in the future takes time and money. HRC lost in 2016 while investing in GA and AZ, but money spent in these states no doubt had some impact with bringing them along in 2020 and building more infrastructure to compete in these places. Particularly with Texas, a state that has seen movement toward Dems in recent years but has no near-term history of voting for Dems, and a state that is massive and has expensive media markets, you cannot wait for change to happen organically.... it takes some long term investment.

Just think these things get framed as "either/or" way too much, particularly when more $$$ gives more latitude to an "all of the above" approach.

Edited September 6, 2024 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

Florida was only Trump +3 (roughly the same margin as Michigan). It has historically been a swing state the past couple of decades. It has been more of a swing state than Michigan, but suddenly it's basically Idaho, and Democrats just need to quit competing there. Campaign in Florida and make Trump have to defend it. You're going to be in Georgia anyways. The Democrats just give states away so easily. 

[romad1]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Florida was only Trump +3 (roughly the same margin as Michigan). It has historically been a swing state the past couple of decades. It has been more of a swing state than Michigan, but suddenly it's basically Idaho, and Democrats just need to quit competing there. Campaign in Florida and make Trump have to defend it. You're going to be in Georgia anyways. The Democrats just give states away so easily. 

the "drive down the rural margins" strategy seems like a good idea too.   If they can get rural African Americans to turn out in numbers they can win NC and Georgia outright. 

[Edman85]

10 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Florida was only Trump +3 (roughly the same margin as Michigan). It has historically been a swing state the past couple of decades. It has been more of a swing state than Michigan, but suddenly it's basically Idaho, and Democrats just need to quit competing there. Campaign in Florida and make Trump have to defend it. You're going to be in Georgia anyways. The Democrats just give states away so easily. 

I'm fine with nobody trying to compete here if the Tigers' World Series run isn't tarnished by excessive presidential advertising.

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, romad1 said:

the "drive down the rural margins" strategy seems like a good idea too.   If they can get rural African Americans to turn out in numbers they can win NC and Georgia outright. 

The Jacksonville media market extends into rural southern Georgia. You start with ads there, and you are hitting two swing states. I also think you can win back some of the Hispanics that went for Trump in Miami. You have abortion and weed on the ballot, a dem running in every single state house race, and an unpopular senator. Now is the time to make a play for Florida. Harris has a huge cash advantage over Trump. She also already has a large ground operation in Florida; she keeps expanding, which means she thinks she can win it. 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

The Jacksonville media market extends into rural southern Georgia. You start with ads there, and you are hitting two swing states. I also think you can win back some of the Hispanics that went for Trump in Miami. You have abortion and weed on the ballot, a dem running in every single state house race, and an unpopular senator. Now is the time to make a play for Florida. Harris has a huge cash advantage over Trump. She also already has a large ground operation in Florida; she keeps expanding, which means she thinks she can win it. 

I would add Tallahassee as well if for nothing else because of it's proximity to Rural GA / sizable black population in SW Georgia. Population-wise, North Florida is a drop in the bucket, but it's a good way to maybe test the waters in a way that isn't a frivolous use of money. 

Texas is a tougher case just because the big media markets are where the potential votes are for D's, and those places cost a lot of money. And relative to Florida where you can pass it off as an investment in a border market, it really doesn't border anything competitive. There's still long-term reward there with real investment.... 

Overall, it's something they should explore.... obviously job number 1 is to win the White House, but if Tester really is in trouble in Montana and if Scott/Cruz are only leading by low to mid single digits, it starts to become justifiable to make some strategic investments with the kind of resources they have.

Edited September 6, 2024 by mtutiger

[oblong]

I don't know what's real anymore but Nate Silver was trending on X and with all the bots and stuff.... but allegedly he's bought by Thiel so his forecasts are getting trashed. 

 

[mtutiger]

 

I'm ambivalent just because of how bad Liz's dad was as VP... but it's still a sentence I never would have expected to read 10 years ago

[Motown Bombers]

19 minutes ago, oblong said:

I don't know what's real anymore but Nate Silver was trending on X and with all the bots and stuff.... but allegedly he's bought by Thiel so his forecasts are getting trashed. 

 

Basically, Silver is unskewing polls. Even though his polls has Harris up, he believes she is going to fall back down, so he's skewing them to Trump. Basically, after all his talk about trusting the data, he isn't trusting the data. Places like Decision Desk HQ have Harris in the lead, and Cook has been moving a bunch of down ballot races towards Democrats. 

[Motown Bombers]

22 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

I'm ambivalent just because of how bad Liz's dad was as VP... but it's still a sentence I never would have expected to read 10 years ago

Has there ever been a former Vice President who endorsed the candidate of the opposite party?