2024 Presidential Election thread

[romad1]

9 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I could be wrong, but a **** Cheney endorsement is probably net neutral, but could be a small net negative. Suspect that Harris will not tout this at all.

Part and parcel of a rejection of the treason party.

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I could be wrong, but a **** Cheney endorsement is probably net neutral, but could be a small net negative. Suspect that Harris will not tout this at all.

I doubt it has any impact beyond one more thing they can put in a montage ad to run in a red market. But again, I think any 2016 Trump voters that he was going to lose he lost by 2018. Since then the people voting for Trump (2020) have all known exactly what they are voting for and chosen it anyway. It's not going to make any difference in terms of motivating D voters to register and show up, and that's where the battle will be won/lost. 

At 50,000 ft, every old line GOP leader that makes the irrevocable break is a small ray of hope for a reconstituted GOP in the future, but that's over the horizon somewhere - irrelevant to this election.

[oblong]

Cheney’s endorsement shows that today’s GOP is far removed from the party of Reagan and Bush. To those low information (not stupid) voters who are busy living their lives and not paying attention to details like us dorks, it presents another data point to enforce the idea that maybe both sides aren’t the same. A lot of people do think that.  They see references to multiple trials with Trump and these former republicans going against him… again it doesn’t take much to make a difference. 

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

This is far bigger than agreeing and disagreeing on where we stand on Issues A or B. Cheney sanctioned mass murder of people based on fabrications and lies. He sanctioned the brutal use of torture on other human beings like water boarding, using aggressive dogs towards people, and other methods. Ironically too, he's undemocratic like Trump is. Remember, Cheney tried to usurp the legislative branch of government and our system of checks and balances by pushing the Unitary Executive Theory while in the White House. 

OK, so, what's the action item here?

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

Cheney’s endorsement shows that today’s GOP is far removed from the party of Reagan and Bush. To those low information (not stupid) voters who are busy living their lives and not paying attention to details like us dorks, it presents another data point to enforce the idea that maybe both sides aren’t the same. A lot of people do think that.  They see references to multiple trials with Trump and these former republicans going against him… again it doesn’t take much to make a difference. 

To this point, I agree that the vast majority of eligible voters are simply not paying any attention to any of this as they pursue only those things that impact their own lives today, and I continue to be hopeful that as the election draws near, like in October, these people will starting to pay attention, look into the things we've been taking in every day for their first time, be horrified by what they didn't know before but now see, and will sprint to the polls at two in the morning on Election Day to make sure they secure their place in line for their opportunity to vote against that guy.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

To this point, I agree that the vast majority of eligible voters are simply not paying any attention to any of this as they pursue only those things that impact their own lives today, and I continue to be hopeful that as the election draws near, like in October, these people will starting to pay attention, look into the things we've been taking in every day for their first time, be horrified by what they didn't know before but now see, and will sprint to the polls at two in the morning on Election Day to make sure they secure their place in line for their opportunity to vote against that guy.

I hope you are right and I'd love to believe it, but a blowout record election turn-out for this country is 150 Million votes. While I agree there are indeed many millions who are not paying attention, I'm afraid they are just going to continue to not pay attention because half of American's just don't vote, and that's who that half are. Harris is bringing  a lot of new young voters and charged up women in, they are already paying attention and registering now. Best hope is that that is something the polling is largely missing because those kinds of model adjustments probably are not often done on the fly  - only after the cycle.

Edited September 7 by gehringer_2

[Mr.TaterSalad]

18 minutes ago, chasfh said:

OK, so, what's the action item here?

Nothing when it comes to the election. At least I hope. The Harris campaign hasn't yet actively promoted this, nor should they. I'm glad to see they aren't out there promoting it either. 

Ultimately, if she becomes President, she should offer up Bush, Cheney, and other affiliated individuals up to the The International Criminal Court in The Hague for a War Crimes tribunal. 

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, chasfh said:

OK, so, what's the action item here?

I think the answer is none. It doesn't change anything your are doing and you don't really even need to acknowledge it in particular other than making the general observation that Trump has lost support from people in both his own and previous GOP admins. If you are asked about Richard Cheney in particular you just say, "We have a lot of disagreements with him but if he has moved in our direction wrt Trump, that is one less."

Edited September 7 by gehringer_2

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

But again, I think any 2016 Trump voters that he was going to lose he lost by 2018. Since then the people voting for Trump (2020) have all known exactly what they are voting for and chosen it anyway. It's not going to make any difference in terms of motivating D voters to register and show up, and that's where the battle will be won/lost. 

This 💯. That cake is baked. Anyone that voted for Trump in 2016 but turned into a Never Trump and will vote for the Democratic candidate has already done so. I doubt there are very many people who voted Trump in 2016 and 2020 that will vote Harris this time or people that maybe left the top blank last time that will vote for Harris. Cheney or Bush's endorsements aren't winning you over a statistically impactful or meaningful number of Republican or ex-Republican voters imo.

[chasfh]

18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I hope you are right and I'd love to believe it, but a blowout record election turn-out for this country is 150 Million votes. While I agree there are indeed many millions who are not paying attention, I'm afraid they are just going to continue to not pay attention because half of American's just don't vote, and that's who that half are. Harris is bringing  a lot of new young voters and charged up women in, they are already paying attention and registering now. Best hope is that that is something the polling is largely missing because those kinds of model adjustments probably are not often done on the fly  - only after the cycle.

I predicted super high turnout for 2020 on the old board, and I nor anyone else didn't have to be Nostra****ingdamus to get that one right.

So I'm gonna go ahead and predict that this is going to be the greatest turnout for an election in American history, at least in numbers, if not in in percent of electorate, certainly higher than 2020.

[chasfh]

19 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Nothing when it comes to the election. At least I hope. The Harris campaign hasn't yet actively promoted this, nor should they. I'm glad to see they aren't out there promoting it either. 

Ultimately, if she becomes President, she should offer up Bush, Cheney, and other affiliated individuals up to the The International Criminal Court in The Hague for a War Crimes tribunal. 

Well, you and I both know that's not going to happen, and while I agree with you on the principle, if not on all the specific details, of Cheney's and that entire administration's war-criming, the 100% certainty that she would never do that is not going to factor into whether I root for her to win the election even a little bit.

In fact, ironically, I would think that if any of this year's candidates would offer up Bush and Cheney to the Hague, it would be Trump, not because he is horrified by their actions in the White House—since it's a safe bet that in reality he actually admires those actions—but only because he hates their ****ing guts to the core and would do just about anything to shove it straight up their asses sideways.

Edited September 7 by chasfh

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I predicted super high turnout for 2020 on the old board, and I nor anyone else didn't have to be Nostra****ingdamus to get that one right.

So I'm gonna go ahead and predict that this is going to be the greatest turnout for an election in American history, at least in numbers, if not in in percent of electorate, certainly higher than 2020.

The thing that amazes me is that I'm still seeing some writers who think high turnout will benefit Trump more. That just feels so counter-factual I can't buy it. On the D side you may be pulling traditionally under voted parts of the population into the voting process in minority women, Hispanics and young voters, plus the general 4 yr demographic shift.  Who could Trump possibly be pulling in who he didn't already have? What deep repository of White Males would suddenly be more energized about him than when he 1st hit the scene and why? The GenX'ers suddenly becoming more radically GOP? I don't think there is any reasonable answer to that question.

Edited September 7 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The thing that amazes me is that I'm still seeing some writers who think high turnout will benefit Trump more. That just feels so counter-factual I can't buy it. On the D side you may be pulling traditionally under voted parts of the population into the voting process in minority women, Hispanics and young voters, plus the general 4 yr demographic shift.  Who could Trump possibly be pulling in who he didn't already have? What deep repository of White Males would suddenly be more energized about him than when he 1st hit the scene and why? The GenX'ers suddenly becoming more radically GOP? I don't think there is any reasonable answer to that question.

I think that might be Trump's bid by going on every Russian-funded bro'ed-up podcast his Kremlin campaign plants can identify that will buy a second microphone he can use when he stops by. They believe using Trump in this way can persuade an army of incels to get off the ketamine long enough to march to the polls on Election Day to vote for him in numbers.

If I'm the Harris campaign, I might consider using the fact that he is showing up for these podcasts in the first place as a data point to scare the vote out of everyone else.

[Dan Gilmore]

Regarding the idea that Trump voter defection all happened back in 2018 or in 2020, I think J6 happening after that would add to the defections. And to the intensity of independent voters who might be tempted to side with him. Not everyone of them, of course, but enough I am fervently hoping.

[gehringer_2]

Speaking of the Gen X'ers. In the life cycle arc, they are at the age of maximum economic conservatism so in general would be moving toward the most anti-tax platforms. But here I think Trump is making a big mistake with his tariff talk, because that is basically a break all the china and re-arrange it proposal and thus is going to run counter the economic conservatism of his natural constituencies. They hate taxes but they are also most afraid of change that might upset their apple carts. Could be one reason the Ds are closing the gap on the 'Who do you trust on the economy' question.

[The Ronz]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Who could Trump possibly be pulling in who he didn't already have? 

Gen Z for starters.

All the Gen Z voters I know - including those voting for the first time - are voting for Trump.

The reason is the same as anyone who votes for Trump - he "allows" them to be openly racist.

As far as I'm concerned Trump is not only going to win but he is going to win by a lot.

Edited September 7 by The Ronz

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, The Ronz said:

Gen Z for starters.

All the Gen Z voters I know - including those voting for the first time - are voting for Trump.

The reason is the same as anyone who votes for Trump - he "allows" them to be openly racist.

As far as I'm concerned Trump is not only going to win but he is going to win by a lot.

You’re voting for Trump, aren’t you?

[The Ronz]

Nope.

But I do not know a single person who isn't.

[1984Echoes]

9 hours ago, oblong said:

Meanwhile in 2024….

i don’t see the point in bringing up something from 2003 as it relates to today unless it’s to somehow bring legitimacy to the idea that maybe his vote for Harris now is wrong.  Grow up. You are going to agree with people on issue A and disagree on issue B. That is how the world works.  

Side show.

Nothing but a sideshow at this point.

[1984Echoes]

12 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Mother Jones: Lie by Lie: A Timeline of How We Got Into Iraq

The irony of Haliburton Cheney speaking out against someone who lies to their supporters is quite rich. Haliburton Cheney literally lied all the time to get us into a war in Iraq so the company he was affiliated with could get no-bid contracts to work on the oilfields in Iraq. 

I hate Trump and want to see him defeated and sent to the dustbin of history. But I refuse to let history be whitewashed over and forget about what Haliburton Cheney and DubyaMD did to get us into the Iraq War and repercussions of their lies.

 

Or... to put it more bluntly:

You're a sideshow at this point.

[1984Echoes]

8 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

I could be wrong, but a **** Cheney endorsement is probably net neutral, but could be a small net negative. Suspect that Harris will not tout this at all.

 

I don't see how this could be "net neutral" or "net negative".

Dem's could give a rat's ass what **** Cheney says.

Right-leaning Indies and the few responsible Republicans left in America will think "Damn! Cheney? I guess it IS OK to vote for Harris this cycle. Hmmm... Maybe it IS important to preserve our Democracy after all...!"

I see no possibility whatsoever that this is "neutral" or "negative".

Why would you think this?

[1984Echoes]

5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

... a blowout record election turn-out for this country is 150 Million votes. ...

 

I would prefer to see that 90-60 Dems versus 80-70...

 

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, The Ronz said:

... All the Gen Z voters I know - ... Trump is not only going to win but he is going to win by a lot.

So...

You're projecting only your LOCAL knowledge, and LOCAL ONLY... onto the entire nation.

Much, much, much, too narrow-minded to be actually making a valid point.

Sorry but... wrong answer.

[Tiger337]

50 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

Nope.

But I do not know a single person who isn't.

Like I said before, you need some new friends.  😃

[mtutiger]

10 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

This is far bigger than agreeing and disagreeing on where we stand on Issues A or B. 

In Year of Our Lord 2024, there is nothing bigger than defeating Donald Trump. Nothing. At least if one believes he's a threat to our form of government and way of life.

**** Cheney, I don't like the guy. But if it creates a permission structure for a certain type of Republican to defeat Donald Trump, I don't care. No matter how small that number of voters is, just ****ing win.