2024 Presidential Election thread

[The Ronz]

The Democrats could easily take MI-10 but have no inclination to do so.

I know many people in MI-10 and they are extremely racist Trumpers.

So racist in fact that they split their ticket and voted against John James for the sole reason that he is black.

James won by less than 2,000 votes in 2020.

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

The Democrats could easily take MI-10 but have no inclination to do so.

I know many people in MI-10 and they are extremely racist Trumpers.

So racist in fact that they split their ticket and voted against John James for the sole reason that he is black.

James won by less than 2,000 votes in 2020.

I live in MI-10 and I know no one like that. My neighbors are Ukrainian and Muslim immigrants with a couple of black families. You seem to attract the worst people. 
 

Your math doesn’t work. Whitmer won the district, so that means more people voted for Whitmer and James than Tudor and Marlinga. 

Edited September 16, 2024 by Motown Bombers

[Motor City Sonics]

11 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

The Democrats could easily take MI-10 but have no inclination to do so.

I know many people in MI-10 and they are extremely racist Trumpers.

So racist in fact that they split their ticket and voted against John James for the sole reason that he is black.

James won by less than 2,000 votes in 2020.

You make Macomb county sound like Mississippi Burning.      We'll have to send Gene Hackman in........

[Motown Bombers]

So just looking at Eastpointe, the blackest and most Democratic city in Macomb County, Marlinga got 900 fewer votes than Whitmer and James got 300 more votes than Tudor. That’s almost the entire election right there. Marlinga got less support from black cities. In Shelby Township, the reddest and most MAGA city in the district, James got nearly 2,000 more votes than Tudor. Marlinga got over 2,000 fewer votes than Whitmer. There is no evidence a high amount of people didn’t vote for James because he’s black. He outperformed than Tudor. Start associating with better people. 

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

He’s very very bad at this, exhibit #8837722

Who’s Waltz?

[romad1]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Who’s Waltz?

 

[romad1]

The USSS guy at the podium in West Palm Beach, he wouldn't be a Haitian immigrant would he?

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

If they Republicans lose Texas and Florida, they lose, period.

[mtutiger]

The John James seat is gonna get a cash infusion

[Motown Bombers]

As it should. I said in 2022 MI-10 was winnable. Most people just did their Macomb County stereotype but the district does include a lot of the heavy MAGA area north of Hall Road. 

[romad1]

4 hours ago, romad1 said:

The USSS guy at the podium in West Palm Beach, he wouldn't be a Haitian immigrant would he?

nailed ethnicity but slobbered on hearing his role.  Irony or design?

[mtutiger]

Higher margins of error with the counties, but if Harris is winning both Erie and Northampton, she's winning PA

[romad1]

10 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Higher margins of error with the counties, but if Harris is winning both Erie and Northampton, she's winning PA

This is a big deal.  This polling shows that Harris has capitalized on Trump's terrible debate and her own strong performance.   

[mtutiger]

20 minutes ago, romad1 said:

This is a big deal.  This polling shows that Harris has capitalized on Trump's terrible debate and her own strong performance.   

Not downplaying the debate performance as a possible impact, but there was also a much larger flood of crap quality polling into the PA average over the past month that has impacted analysis of the state.

It's probably also not coincidental that PA has added significance over MI/WI for EC reasons as well. And that Trump seems to be pushing resources to the state at the expense of most of the other battleground states.

[mtutiger]

 

[romad1]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Not downplaying the debate performance as a possible impact, but there was also a much larger flood of crap quality polling into the PA average over the past month that has impacted analysis of the state.

It's probably also not coincidental that PA has added significance over MI/WI for EC reasons as well. And that Trump seems to be pushing resources to the state at the expense of most of the other battleground states.

Yeah a lot of bogus polls were telling us that a red wave was coming in 2022.  

[Motown Bombers]

 

[pfife]

How can we depend on Trump keeping the country safe if he cant even keep his country club safe?

[mtutiger]

30 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Yeah a lot of bogus polls were telling us that a red wave was coming in 2022.  

It's partially a repeat of this, but also the junk pollsters targeting PA much more than MI/WI is a function of how Trump's campaign sees the landscape IMO. If you look at the money, their campaign is ceding a lot of ground in MI/WI/AZ/NV and seems to be banking mostly on winning PA/GA and holding NC.

It's another inside straight strategy... But it's really risky and limits the paths to 270

[romad1]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's partially a repeat of this, but also the junk pollsters targeting PA much more than MI/WI is a function of how Trump's campaign sees the landscape IMO. If you look at the money, their campaign is ceding a lot of ground in MI/WI/AZ/NV and seems to be banking mostly on winning PA/GA and holding NC.

It's another inside straight strategy... But it's really risky and limits the paths to 270

there was a time when Biden had to do that inside straight strategy.  

[ewsieg]

56 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Yeah a lot of bogus polls were telling us that a red wave was coming in 2022.  

Not so much bogus, just wrong.  They finally learned to understand earlier Trump/GOP voters didn't want to say they were Trump voters and adjusted for that percentage they felt still weren't telling them.  What they didn't realize is by 2022, Trump voters were proud to tell pollsters they would be voting GOP and the overall drop in their numbers was related to people finally getting tired of him and the gop.

[romad1]

1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

Not so much bogus, just wrong.  They finally learned to understand earlier Trump/GOP voters didn't want to say they were Trump voters and adjusted for that percentage they felt still weren't telling them.  What they didn't realize is by 2022, Trump voters were proud to tell pollsters they would be voting GOP and the overall drop in their numbers was related to people finally getting tired of him and the gop.

While I agree some pollsters struggled to capture the Trump sine wave, the fact remains that many, many garbage polls were dumped to skew averages as part of a deliberate information operation strategy.  

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, romad1 said:

While I agree some pollsters struggled to capture the Trump sine wave, the fact remains that many, many garbage polls were dumped to skew averages as part of a deliberate information operation strategy.  

Steve Bannon literally said this was the plan. 

[mtutiger]

26 minutes ago, romad1 said:

there was a time when Biden had to do that inside straight strategy.  

If you are referring to the 2020 primary, his strategy was more chalk then people realize... The most sizable and important demo in the D Party are black voters (particularly women), and the first three contests did not have a lot of those voters in them.

His win in SC was practically a guarantee, and after that, the biggest risk was that Pete/Amy/Beto/etc. wouldn't get out. Once they did, it was pretty much over.

Edited September 17, 2024 by mtutiger

[romad1]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

If you are referring to the 2020 primary, his strategy was more chalk then people realize... The most sizable and important demo in the D Party are black voters (particularly women), and the first three contests did not have a lot of those voters in them.

His win in SC was practically a guarantee, and after that, the biggest risk was that Pete/Amy/Beto/etc. wouldn't get out. Once they did, it was pretty much over.

Nah, In this case I meant the 2024 general election.  He was losing his various paths and was going to concentrate on just the blue wall states because that was going to be his Little Round Top.