mtutiger Posted Tuesday at 01:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:29 PM (edited) 5 minutes ago, romad1 said: Nah, In this case I meant the 2024 general election. He was losing his various paths and was going to concentrate on just the blue wall states because that was going to be his Little Round Top. Oh, I misinterpreted... Yes, situation for Trump sort of resembles Biden before dropping out for sure. Not quite that bad, but could get there depending on how things go the rest of the way. What would make me nervous if I were them is that they could throw infinite money and resources at PA and, frankly, I'm not sure that it would even be the tipping point state (which is probably what they are trying to make happen). We assume it will be, but people assumed that in 2020 too - and it turned out to be WI instead. Edited Tuesday at 01:32 PM by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted Tuesday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:18 PM Very helpful 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted Tuesday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:21 PM 2 minutes ago, romad1 said: Very helpful Doesn't include reference to Charlottesville though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM The Trump campaign is doing none of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Doesn't mention this either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Netnerd Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM Bulwark doesn't mention 5th Avenue, either. Overwhelming how sustained Trump's violent theme is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM (edited) 1 hour ago, ewsieg said: Not so much bogus, just wrong. They finally learned to understand earlier Trump/GOP voters didn't want to say they were Trump voters and adjusted for that percentage they felt still weren't telling them. What they didn't realize is by 2022, Trump voters were proud to tell pollsters they would be voting GOP and the overall drop in their numbers was related to people finally getting tired of him and the gop. A few things: 1.) Pollsters obviously aren't broadcasting means and methods because they are trade secrets, but it has been reported many have adjusted from 2020 to try to capture any weaknesses missed. (As your post suggests) 2.) In 2020, we were in the midst of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic that had real world impacts in many ways, including in sampling as well as how each party undertook campaigning (ie. Dems were not canvassing in person) and what method people used to vote. Obviously could have impacted polls as these real world impacts are hard to model. 3.) Going off recollection here, but IIRC, Biden's margins were strong, but he was often polling at or around 50% in a lot of these states. IOW, polls were decent in finding Dem share, but had trouble finding Trump's share. Using the 49-46 result in the Suffolk PA poll as an example, there are far less "undecideds" and likely is closer to what a final outcome would be like than a lot of the polling 4 years ago would have shown Edited Tuesday at 02:54 PM by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Tuesday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:50 PM So Trump is having a rally in New York. He’s being out funded by Harris and has a narrow path to victory so of course he holds a rally in a state he will never win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted Tuesday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:34 PM Nate not a fan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted Tuesday at 03:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:48 PM (edited) 15 minutes ago, oblong said: Nate not a fan? Monmouth has a weird way of asking the questions about the two candidates that doesn't make it a true head to head. Change that was made after messing up the NJ Governors race in 2021. It's definitely a good poll for Harris, but their methodology makes it less useful and easier to avoid scrutiny. Edited Tuesday at 03:49 PM by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Netnerd Posted Tuesday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:52 PM Cynical me thinks... Trump doesn't really want to win, or at least doesn't care whether he wins. Losing allows him to remain a victim and to play to the MAGA need for victimhood. Losing allows him to use his victim status to leverage legislation and elections. He doesn't lose political power. Losing might not have much effect on his insulation from legal consequences. Losing means he can play as much golf as he wants. OTOH... Winning means he'd have to work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted Tuesday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:06 PM 32 minutes ago, oblong said: Nate not a fan? So, Peter Thiel's not a fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted Tuesday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:23 PM 31 minutes ago, Netnerd said: Cynical me thinks... Trump doesn't really want to win, or at least doesn't care whether he wins. Losing allows him to remain a victim and to play to the MAGA need for victimhood. Losing allows him to use his victim status to leverage legislation and elections. He doesn't lose political power. Losing might not have much effect on his insulation from legal consequences. Losing means he can play as much golf as he wants. OTOH... Winning means he'd have to work. Losing means he goes to prison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM Ohio sheriff says to ‘write down’ addresses of homes with Harris signs (msn.com) speaking of going to prison Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted Tuesday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:41 PM A whole long word salad of nonsensical projection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted Tuesday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:44 PM 20 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Losing means he goes to prison. bingo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted Tuesday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:48 PM (edited) 56 minutes ago, Netnerd said: Cynical me thinks... Trump doesn't really want to win, or at least doesn't care whether he wins. Losing allows him to remain a victim and to play to the MAGA need for victimhood. Losing allows him to use his victim status to leverage legislation and elections. He doesn't lose political power. Losing might not have much effect on his insulation from legal consequences. Losing means he can play as much golf as he wants. OTOH... Winning means he'd have to work. I think he wants to win and the risk if he doesn't is real. But this is his third time running, people know who he is. So he's running back the old playbook and it doesn't work like it used to. We always marvel at how many people still support him, but the flip side of that is that there are very few people who have made up their mind on him in the negative who are going to move off of their position. And that group is larger, upward of 50-55% of the electorate. Edited Tuesday at 04:49 PM by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted Tuesday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:51 PM 27 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Losing means he goes to prison. I'll believe he is going to prison when he is actually in prison. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted Tuesday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:02 PM (edited) 21 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I think he wants to win and the risk if he doesn't is real. But this is his third time running, people know who he is. So he's running back the old playbook and it doesn't work like it used to. We always marvel at how many people still support him, but the flip side of that is that there are very few people who have made up their mind on him in the negative who are going to move off of their position. And that group is larger, upward of 50-55% of the electorate. was listening to a pod cast with a dem pollster the other day (sorry I can't find the link!) and she broke things down in fine detail. The core support for Trump is two places - we know about the racists and misogynists, they aren't ever voting for Harris. But one group the Campaign has identified that is still recoverable to the dems that they have to target hard is Hispanic men. The pollsters work says all they care about is the economy, and they are sold on the idea that Trump, as a supposed successful businessman *must* be better on economic issues. If the Dems can break through to that group with a dose of economic reality, they would easily be over the top and the election would be over - but it's going to be hard because the Dems are not strong in the information universe that cohort lives in and their job is to find a way to be there. The other overarching issue for the campaign is presenting Harris as stronger than Trump. According to her data (and no surprise) a woman running against a man loses the presumption on being a strong enough personality for the job. Curiously though, Harris benefits because there is a general perception of black women being stronger than white women (I thought that was interesting but it does ring true - all the way back to Margaret Mitchell's Mammy and Hattie McDaniel's great performance in that role) Edited Tuesday at 05:10 PM by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted Tuesday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:04 PM JD Vance can blow it out his ass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM 3 hours ago, romad1 said: Very helpful There is a link to an article within this article which lists out 54 incidents of criminal cases in which violent acts or threats were linked, by the perpetrators themselves, to Trump’s statements. And this is only through 2020! I find it incredible that no one on the Democrats’ side is highlighting this exact thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted Tuesday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:25 PM (edited) 33 minutes ago, casimir said: I'll believe he is going to prison when he is actually in prison. He's not going to prison. Just forget all that. As much as we'd love to see that, I don't know that the kind of crimes he was convicted for should even warrant going to prison. I think prison needs to be reserved for more violent crimes. Now, he could end up there for other misdeeds, but doubtful. He's going to face house arrest and we don't know what that even means. He lives on a resort. Does he get full run of the resort? I mean - most people with ankle monitors, aren't even allowed to go outside for more than a couple of minutes - they can go outside to get something, they can go outside to retrieve a pet, but more than 2 minutes and that sensor is going off. But still - having to war an ankle monitor is humiliating. Being confined to a very specific part of the resort is frustrating. Being stuck inside, not allowed to golf is going to make him very angry. Being barred from social media would probably give him a stroke. But he's not going to prison. That is my prediction -- if he loses (still a big IF at this point) - House Arrest 2 years (Inside, Limited to a specific part of the premisis) - Probation for 10 years (he'll surely violate this) - Ankle Monitor. (how humiliating) - Possibly barred from social media (because he did use it to spread lies in this case). Hey, I was glad that Kwame went to prison - his non-violent crimes were much worse and affected more people. But 28 years was far too much for a non-violent offense. 10 years was about right. I think Prison is too much for Trump's current case But the January 6th case and the documents case - well - yeah, prison all day for those. Edited Tuesday at 05:29 PM by Motor City Sonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted Tuesday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:27 PM 3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: The Trump campaign is doing none of this. There will definitely be red hat protesters and subsequent violent incidents at some of these events, which will provide Trump ample opportunity to engage in DARVO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted Tuesday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:30 PM 1 hour ago, Netnerd said: Cynical me thinks... Trump doesn't really want to win, or at least doesn't care whether he wins. Losing allows him to remain a victim and to play to the MAGA need for victimhood. Losing allows him to use his victim status to leverage legislation and elections. He doesn't lose political power. Losing might not have much effect on his insulation from legal consequences. Losing means he can play as much golf as he wants. OTOH... Winning means he'd have to work. Counterpoint: Losing will send Trump directly into the justice system for the rest of his life, with results that are uncertain as of today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM One man’s fascist is an orange man’s patriot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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