2024 Presidential Election thread

[mtutiger]

In all seriousness, when you look at the actions (ie. Trump and his allies trying a last minute play to change Nebraska's EC allocation) and how the money is being allocated (ie. Ds flooding money into R districts in Iowa and WI-03), Trump appears to having real issues in the Midwest and Plains this cycle.

[Motown Bombers]

In light of Trump's new watch grift...

 

[Motown Bombers]

19 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

In all seriousness, when you look at the actions (ie. Trump and his allies trying a last minute play to change Nebraska's EC allocation) and how the money is being allocated (ie. Ds flooding money into R districts in Iowa and WI-03), Trump appears to having real issues in the Midwest and Plains this cycle.

I've been seeing the new Marlinga ads here in MI-10. Republicans are even pumping cash into the Nebraska senate race. Trump is a real drag.

[pfife]

Got a WP push alert that Slump is going to meet with Zelensky.  

RIP Logan Act.   We hardly knew thee.

[Edman85]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

Apparently the Vance dossier is being spread around Twitter and Musk is trying to stop it. It seems Musk name is in it as a funder of Vance long before Musk came out as a right wing troll. 

[Motown Bombers]

The Seltzer poll had Trump only up 4 in Iowa, Dems are spending in Iowa congressional districts, NE-2 looks like a lost cause for Trump, and Republicans have to pump money into the Nebraska senate race. Is Iowa in play? Obama won it twice. This isn't a state with a long history of being red like Kansas or Nebraska. 

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

In light of Trump's new watch grift...

 

Rubio was asked about that this week and he did answer but it was hard to understand him.  His mouth was full. 

[romad1]

This is heartening

 

[romad1]

and this is hilarious

 

[romad1]

Take the above with this in context

 

[romad1]

imagine being in this meeting with a known Putin asset. 

[Motown Bombers]

Florida is in play. 

[RatkoVarda]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Florida is in play. 

with Trump, abortion, and pot on the ballot - lots of people will be motivated to vote

[oblong]

If Florida goes blue, in a close manner, and there's an opportunity to muck it up.... would DeSantis be like "screw you... I told y'all it was bad news to nominate this guy and look what happened..."

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

There's been a couple of bad polls in recent days for Harris is Arizona. This one from the NYT/Siena and another one from USA Today/Suffolk. I wonder why Arizona, which went for Dems the last two election cycles, is seemingly slipping back to the right.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[mtutiger]

30 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I like my bacon extra crispy, personally 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

There's been a couple of bad polls in recent days for Harris is Arizona. This one from the NYT/Siena and another one from USA Today/Suffolk. I wonder why Arizona, which went for Dems the last two election cycles, is seemingly slipping back to the right.

A couple of thoughts (not necessarily correlated, but observations that may apply):

1. Katie Hobbs went into election night in 2022 seen as behind Kari Lake around 2 points, based specifically on polling. In the end, she did end up winning.
2. Sun Belt states present their own challenges for pollsters because they are diverse and sometimes can encounter issues with sampling minority voters (Georgia is another case of this - Biden 2020/Warnock 2022 (before the runoff) both overperformed polling IIRC)...
3. Another challenge is getting the turnout correct - using Georgia again because it's a little more straightforward an example (not as familiar as AZ), but if you see a poll that's only composed of ~26% black voters in that state, that likely isn't high enough; black voters since 2020 have generally always been at least 29% of turnout in that state, and 30% turnout is the magic number that D's like to hit to feel like they have a chance iirc
4. Immigration is Trump's overall best issue, and among the battleground states, there's no state where it's more salient than Arizona by virtue of where Arizona is located

Edited September 27, 2024 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

Speaking of the border…

 

 

[mtutiger]

Garrett is right, but I specifically think it's a good bellwether for Midwestern suburban areas... Milwaukee comes to mind specifically, there's still a room for Trump to fall in the WOW counties. And I don't think he can afford to lose much ground there.

[mtutiger]

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