2024 Presidential Election thread

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

basically they are all adjusting their data to get the results they are willing to believe. This is close to the exact opposite of real data driven statisics! So bottom line the polls are just just the best guess of the pollsters as compared to the best guess of anyone else. That a survey was taken is reduced to just for show.

There are just so many ways it could go wrong, not the least of which as Cohn describes in the second tweet, people misremember and tend to associate their vote with the winner / incumbent. Or also people saying they voted for a candidate and didn't even vote at all!

Really really glad I'm not in that line of work....

[romad1]

doesnt help with Thiel and Musk out there amplifying the worst and most biased results as true polls.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Leon Musk.... Well known Commonwealth-knower lol

Do they drive Teslas and those stupid pinewood derby trucks in PA? I don't remember seeing any when we were thru there a couple of weeks ago.

[CMRivdogs]

32 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

There's gotta be a billionaire offering him $$$ for his comedy club tryout

[oblong]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I think they are hiding him. He’s declined this summer. I legit believe that. 

[Hongbit]

54 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

There's gotta be a billionaire offering him $$$ for his comedy club tryout

Exactly.  There are some uber rich GOP donors in that desert.  He’s just there for the money

[Motown Bombers]

California is a massive state. He had more votes from California than any other state. He'll be able to find enough people for a large rally. He can then use that as propaganda. He draws large crowds even in Harris home state.

[Tigerbomb13]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

Do they drive Teslas and those stupid pinewood derby trucks in PA? I don't remember seeing any when we were thru there a couple of weeks ago.

I saw a cyber truck in the wild for the first time today. It’s even more hideous in person. Why would anyone want to be seen in one of those? It’s like a PT Cruiser for rich people, but much more cringe. 

[Motown Bombers]

30 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

I saw a cyber truck in the wild for the first time today. It’s even more hideous in person. Why would anyone want to be seen in one of those? It’s like a PT Cruiser for rich people, but much more cringe. 

I saw one too yesterday. It is every bit as ridiculous in person.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

Less than a month to go to the election and Trump is campaigning in states he won't win.

 

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Why?

Maybe it’s how they can identify boots on the ground that can help him in California once they turn everything upside down?

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Leon Musk.... Well known Commonwealth-knower lol

He might try to use his connections there and his money to hollow out a victory from the inside.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[MichiganCardinal]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[romad1]

The "Hacks on Tap" podcast a week ago suggested it was time for the Harris campaign to pivot from biography to attack.  I was walking past a telescreen in the cafeteria this morning and saw an ad that said flatly Trump means to be a dictator.   

Yeah, they pivoted. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[pfife]

This got push alert from Wapo.....   

What do they always say, America first?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/08/bob-woodward-new-book-war-trump-putin-biden/

[Motown Bombers]

Good to see Lansing and East Lansing lead the way. Mason was also a city Biden won. 

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

Now I've tried my best not to take the polls that seriously, but honestly, I've been failing at that. But when Rasmussen, a noted right wing/Republican pollster has Trump only up 2% in Florida, it may just really be that close.

Edited October 8, 2024 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Mr.TaterSalad]

And then the NYT/Siena says it's Trump +13 in Florida. Polling is just so wild and unpredictable. 

[Motown Bombers]

NYT has been putting out weird polls. The aggregate had Florida Trump +3. No way it is +13. 

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

NYT has been putting out weird polls. The aggregate had Florida Trump +3. No way it is +13. 

Meanwhile the same poll showed Harris increasing her lead nationally. The two things are contradictory. She can't be backsliding massively in FLA while increasing her lead elsewhere by that kind of divergence. Can't happen. Shouldn't pass anyone's smell test.