mtutiger Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: basically they are all adjusting their data to get the results they are willing to believe. This is close to the exact opposite of real data driven statisics! So bottom line the polls are just just the best guess of the pollsters as compared to the best guess of anyone else. That a survey was taken is reduced to just for show. There are just so many ways it could go wrong, not the least of which as Cohn describes in the second tweet, people misremember and tend to associate their vote with the winner / incumbent. Or also people saying they voted for a candidate and didn't even vote at all! Really really glad I'm not in that line of work.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 doesnt help with Thiel and Musk out there amplifying the worst and most biased results as true polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: Leon Musk.... Well known Commonwealth-knower lol Do they drive Teslas and those stupid pinewood derby trucks in PA? I don't remember seeing any when we were thru there a couple of weeks ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 32 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: There's gotta be a billionaire offering him $$$ for his comedy club tryout 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: I think they are hiding him. He’s declined this summer. I legit believe that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 54 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: There's gotta be a billionaire offering him $$$ for his comedy club tryout Exactly. There are some uber rich GOP donors in that desert. He’s just there for the money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 California is a massive state. He had more votes from California than any other state. He'll be able to find enough people for a large rally. He can then use that as propaganda. He draws large crowds even in Harris home state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said: Do they drive Teslas and those stupid pinewood derby trucks in PA? I don't remember seeing any when we were thru there a couple of weeks ago. I saw a cyber truck in the wild for the first time today. It’s even more hideous in person. Why would anyone want to be seen in one of those? It’s like a PT Cruiser for rich people, but much more cringe. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 30 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said: I saw a cyber truck in the wild for the first time today. It’s even more hideous in person. Why would anyone want to be seen in one of those? It’s like a PT Cruiser for rich people, but much more cringe. I saw one too yesterday. It is every bit as ridiculous in person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Less than a month to go to the election and Trump is campaigning in states he won't win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 hours ago, mtutiger said: Why? Maybe it’s how they can identify boots on the ground that can help him in California once they turn everything upside down? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 hours ago, mtutiger said: Leon Musk.... Well known Commonwealth-knower lol He might try to use his connections there and his money to hollow out a victory from the inside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The "Hacks on Tap" podcast a week ago suggested it was time for the Harris campaign to pivot from biography to attack. I was walking past a telescreen in the cafeteria this morning and saw an ad that said flatly Trump means to be a dictator. Yeah, they pivoted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 This got push alert from Wapo..... What do they always say, America first? https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/08/bob-woodward-new-book-war-trump-putin-biden/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Good to see Lansing and East Lansing lead the way. Mason was also a city Biden won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) Now I've tried my best not to take the polls that seriously, but honestly, I've been failing at that. But when Rasmussen, a noted right wing/Republican pollster has Trump only up 2% in Florida, it may just really be that close. Edited October 8 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 And then the NYT/Siena says it's Trump +13 in Florida. Polling is just so wild and unpredictable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 NYT has been putting out weird polls. The aggregate had Florida Trump +3. No way it is +13. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: NYT has been putting out weird polls. The aggregate had Florida Trump +3. No way it is +13. Meanwhile the same poll showed Harris increasing her lead nationally. The two things are contradictory. She can't be backsliding massively in FLA while increasing her lead elsewhere by that kind of divergence. Can't happen. Shouldn't pass anyone's smell test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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