2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Meanwhile the same poll showed Harris increasing her lead nationally. The two things are contradictory. She can't be backsliding massively in FLA while increasing her lead elsewhere by that kind of divergence. Can't happen. Shouldn't pass anyone's smell test.

It could be an outlier poll for sure. Could it also represent Trump surging with older voters and Latinos?

[Motown Bombers]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

It could be an outlier poll for sure. Could it also represent Trump surging with older voters and Latinos?

If that were the case, she should have seen similar in Texas. Florida didn’t move 10 points to the right from 2020. People act like it’s Idaho. 

[Motown Bombers]

[Motown Bombers]

This Florida poll seems funky. 

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[boilerfan]

22 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Why?

Does he own a golf course nearby?

[Kacie]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-propose-new-funds-at-home-senior-care-aiming-sandwich-generation-2024-10-08/

 

This is brilliant.   Caring for the aging and disabled is such a huge issue, but rarely discussed by politicians.  Not even just a plan, but how to pay for it.  

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

It could be an outlier poll for sure. Could it also represent Trump surging with older voters and Latinos?

In the full write up in NYT Cohn defends the result as possibly the result if an influx of more conservative voters into FL - lured by DeSantis' positioning of FLA as the place to be happy if you are a reactionary. Some of the comments on the article see a silver lining if that's true in that if those people left places like MI MN and WI (typical states where snowbird retirees exile themselves to FLA) than those states are swinging bluer!

[1776]

As a nation we’re screwed if something isn’t done to address this debt.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/budget-deficit-national-debt-2024-079d8d13?mod=mhp
 

Neither candidate even acknowledges the problem. What problem, right!

[Edman85]

20 minutes ago, 1776 said:

As a nation we’re screwed if something isn’t done to address this debt.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/budget-deficit-national-debt-2024-079d8d13?mod=mhp
 

Neither candidate even acknowledges the problem. What problem, right!

They're both making promises they won't be able to keep, particularly if both houses of congress stay in the 50/50 zone.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, Kacie said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-propose-new-funds-at-home-senior-care-aiming-sandwich-generation-2024-10-08/

 

This is brilliant.   Caring for the aging and disabled is such a huge issue, but rarely discussed by politicians.  Not even just a plan, but how to pay for it.  

For the last nine years prior to my parent death this year, this was my single biggest issue.  Now, I worry about what might happen to me in my old age.  I have taken good care of myself and also saved my money, but you never knw what can happen and elder healthcare can wipe out svings really fast.  Having Mdicare pay for at leat part of home healtcare would be huge.   

[Tiger337]

16 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

They're both making promises they won't be able to keep, particularly if both houses of congress stay in the 50/50 zone.

The problem is you can't become president unless you make a lot of promises and promising stuff costs big money (even if they are executed half ass as is usualy the case).  That is why the Libertarians always get 1% of the vote.  They promise not to do anything and people want stuff even if they insist that they don't.   

Edited October 8 by Tiger337

[Motown Bombers]

My whole adult life I've been told we're screwed if we don't address the debt. All that has happened is Republicans keep cutting taxes and driving the debt up.

[1776]

54 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

For the last nine years prior to my parent death this year, this was my single biggest issue.  Now, I worry about what might happen to me in my old age.  I have taken good care of myself and also saved my money, but you never knw what can happen and elder healthcare can wipe out svings really fast.  Having Mdicare pay for at leat part of home healtcare would be huge.   

Medical issues and the related costs, particularly in our latter years, can be devastating. It is scary. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[1776]

7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

My whole adult life I've been told we're screwed if we don't address the debt. All that has happened is Republicans keep cutting taxes and driving the debt up.

We as a nation will suffer the consequences. My point in bringing this up is that neither party will even broach the topic because of the hard choices that it would require. There have been a handful of congress people that are voicing urgency here but the top of the ticket should be a part of the game. 
The debt you refer to is a two party issue. There has to be a national conversation on this. Instead the two candidates, who should be leading the conversation here won’t touch it. They’re more interested in buying votes with more promises (spending). 
Unfortunately for most Americans, this 
Is the ultimate out of sight-out of mind situation. 
 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, 1776 said:

We as a nation will suffer the consequences. My point in bringing this up is that neither party will even broach the topic because of the hard choices that it would require. There have been a handful of congress people that are voicing urgency here but the top of the ticket should be a part of the game. 
The debt you refer to is a two party issue. There has to be a national conversation on this. Instead the two candidates, who should be leading the conversation here won’t touch it. They’re more interested in buying votes with more promises (spending). 
Unfortunately for most Americans, this 
Is the ultimate out of sight-out of mind situation. 
 

After Reagan made the debt an issue, Clinton ran budget surpluses and paid down the debt only for Bush to come in, cut taxes, increase the debt, and crash the economy but both sides. 

[1776]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

After Reagan made the debt an issue, Clinton ran budget surpluses and paid down the debt only for Bush to come in, cut taxes, increase the debt, and crash the economy but both sides. 

What does that mean in 2024? I would think it suggests that voters make a balanced budget an issue. With a month to go…*crickets*
 ———-

Source: Investopedia:

According to a study by the World Bank, countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 77% for a prolonged period experience significant slowdowns in economic growth. As of the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 121.57%. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has been above 77% since 2009, following the financial crisis that started in 2007.

———

MB,

The projections going forward show the debt-to-GDP ratio continues to escalate. This will be problematic for younger generations (that would be you sir). 
 

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, 1776 said:

What does that mean in 2024? I would think it suggests that voters make a balanced budget an issue. With a month to go…*crickets*
 ———-

Source: Investopedia:

According to a study by the World Bank, countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 77% for a prolonged period experience significant slowdowns in economic growth. As of the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 121.57%. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has been above 77% since 2009, following the financial crisis that started in 2007.

———

MB,

The projections going forward show the debt-to-GDP ratio continues to escalate. This will be problematic for younger generations (that would be you sir). 
 

Yeah I've been hearing that for decades. What it means for 2024 is that the Republicans trickle down economics of cutting taxes doesn't work. When Clinton raised taxes we got it under control but for some reason poor people want tax cuts for people much wealthier than they are. 

[Motown Bombers]

But I'm sure Liz Cheney has a good plan for the debt. She only voted for the Trump tax cuts that exploded the debt. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

They're both making promises they won't be able to keep, particularly if both houses of congress stay in the 50/50 zone.

two observations:

-regardless of whether it's likely that proposals end up enacted, it's still useful to know in which directions a candidates aspirations lie.

-many things that are too big a lift to institute in whole can be started in-part or pilot to find out what costs and logistics will be. ACA would never have been passed if RomneyCare in MA hadn't provided the small working model.

Communication in a campaign takes many forms and a lot gets said for the sake of their symbolism or attitude value.

[chasfh]

9 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Hopefully the elevated early return rate by the Democrats is more an indication of an increase in D voters overall, than it is an indication of the same number of D voters just getting in their same number of D ballots faster this time around.

 

Edited October 9 by chasfh

[1776]

11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

But I'm sure Liz Cheney has a good plan for the debt. She only voted for the Trump tax cuts that exploded the debt. 

That can’t be undone and that’s not my point, as you well know. 

[CMRivdogs]

Good read, the conservative case for Harris

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-the-right-gets-wrong-about-kamala-harris-liz-cheney?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

Quote

Do most Americans disagree with Harris on most things? Actually, polls suggest the opposite is true. Majorities agree with her on reproductive rights, gun restrictions, and support for Ukraine. On paid family leave and affordable child care, reducing health care costs, and banning price gouging on food and groceries. On raising taxes on wealthy people and corporations to pay for much of her agenda instead of adding trillions to the national debt (as economists say Trump would do with his tariff proposal). On her promise to sign the bipartisan border security bill that Trump tanked.

Is she weak and in over her head? Again, not even close. This is a woman who prosecuted transnational criminal gangs and, according to Slate’s Fred Kaplan, came up with the idea of sharing U.S. intelligence to convince Ukrainian leaders that Russia was about to invade—then traveled to Kyiv to tell President Volodmyr Zelensky.

Is she “synthetic”? That depends on whether you think the real Harris was the 2019 Harris, or the one we see today—defending constitutional norms, comfortable with the America’s global leadership role, supporting our allies, reaching across political lines at a moment that demands it, and perfectly capturing the moment, from Ukraine to reproductive rights, with the one-word slogan “freedom.”

Do Democratic presidents need a Republican Senate to keep them in line? The record of the last few years makes clear that they need only fellow Democrats. Seriously, with Democrats like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who needs outsiders to force compromise? Yes, those two are leaving the Senate this year, but the point remains: Democrats are so fractious within their giant tent that tough negotiations are the norm, whether they’re internal or with the GOP.

The contrast with Cheney and former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (a Bulwark contributor), both former members of the January 6th committee, is dramatic. Both are working to help Democratic Rep. Colin Allred of Texas defeat Sen. Ted Cruz, one of the congressional “objectors” to the 2020 election who tried to keep Trump in power after he lost. Cheney and Kinzinger obviously care more about character than which party controls the Senate.

In Ripon, Cheney did not paper over her conservative views—limited government, low taxes, a strong national defense, the primacy of family over government, the private sector as the growth engine of the economy. But neither did she insult Harris or dwell on their differences. She focused instead on the task at hand, urging everyone listening to her “to reject the depraved cruelty of Donald Trump” and help elect Harris.