2024 Presidential Election thread

[gehringer_2]

Campaign is over at our house, dropped off our ballots this afternoon. 

Have to give Harris and her team a lot of credit  - so far a pretty flawless campaign - just need to bring it down the home stretch.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

In the closing days of the election, Trump will have campaigned in California, Colorado and New York. 

 

Who's gonna pay for this? Because we know who's not gonna pay for it.

 

Edited October 10, 2024 by chasfh

[chasfh]

19 hours ago, Hongbit said:

He’s hoping to squeeze every last dollar out of this campaign grift.  The last big push before Election Day is just the lube he needs to get deeper into the pockets of that glorious Wall St. money that he desires so much.

As for the venue, that’s probably gratis between two buddies.  If anything, JD is paying Trump to show up.    

The scary part is these are more signs that he doesn’t really care about winning the vote and he’s got other plans for how to get into the White House.   He just needs a close enough finish to make whatever claims stick.   

I've been hypothesizing that even if Trump gets smoked by eight digits nationally, he can still claim fraud because the Democrat machine fixed the vote to look like a blowout, when everybody knows Trump wins every state if things are not very unfair.

[chasfh]

19 hours ago, pfife said:

One theory i read on bluesky was that he plans to steal election by throwing it to the House of Reps and so he needs swing house districts  

He can get a House vote only if no one gets at least 270.

[pfife]

32 minutes ago, chasfh said:

He can get a House vote only if no one gets at least 270.

Thats where the "failing" to certify comes in.  

[Tiger337]

The polls haven't looked great for Harris this week.  I know you can't tell anything from individual polls, but the aggregate seems to indicate that the post-debate momentum is gone and may be shifting back to Trump.  

Edited October 10, 2024 by Tiger337

[Motown Bombers]

The polls have been looking good for Harris. The Pennsylvania ones in particular. MAGA is flooding a lot of right wing polls like they did in 2022. 

[Motown Bombers]

Harris opened a campaign office in Indiana as well. 

[Tiger337]

20 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The polls have been looking good for Harris. The Pennsylvania ones in particular. MAGA is flooding a lot of right wing polls like they did in 2022. 

I knew this was coming...

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I knew this was coming...

And yet you still got sucked into the bad polling. 

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

And yet you still got sucked into the bad polling. 

I am not getting sucked into anything.   I am just not a Democratic party cheerleader like you.   I am aware of which polls lean Republican and some of these polls have been accurate in the past.  Overall, it's looking like a dead heat and that historically has been good news for Trump.  I am hoping that the pollsters have made the proper adjustments and that Trump no longer outperforms the polls, but I am prepared for he possibility that they have not.   

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I am not getting sucked into anything.   I am just not a Democratic party cheerleader like you.   I am aware of which polls lean Republican and some of these polls have been accurate in the past.  Overall, it's looking like a dead heat and that historically has been good news for Trump.  I am hoping that the pollsters have made the proper adjustments and that Trump no longer outperforms the polls, but I am prepared for he possibility that they have not.   

None of them have been accurate. Trafalgar got lucky in 2016 because they were off in the right direction. No non partisan poll in September showed Trump with a lead in Pennsylvania. Susquehanna, a quality Pennsylvania pollster, just showed a 9 point shift in a district Trump won. Let’s not forget Democrats have been outperforming polls ever since Dobbs and Trump underperformed in the primary. Oh wait, using actually elections makes me a cheerleader. I just need to piss my pants over polls we know are flawed like you. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Tigeraholic1]

52 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Harris opened a campaign office in Indiana as well. 

LOL this is like Trump working Cali, not gonna happen.

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, Tigeraholic1 said:

LOL this is like Trump working Cali, not gonna happen.

She isn’t campaigning in Indiana. The office is in Gary and that district can be competitive. It’s also close to SW Michigan. 

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

None of them have been accurate. Trafalgar got lucky in 2016 because they were off in the right direction. No non partisan poll in September showed Trump with a lead in Pennsylvania. Susquehanna, a quality Pennsylvania pollster, just showed a 9 point shift in a district Trump won. Let’s not forget Democrats have been outperforming polls ever since Dobbs and Trump underperformed in the primary. Oh wait, using actually elections makes me a cheerleader. I just need to piss my pants over polls we know are flawed like you. 

I'm not pissing in my pants.  As an aging white middle class male, the outcome of the election is not likely to affect me much either way other than having to watch half the males in the country jerk off to one of the dumbest people I've ever seen for the next four years.  I am also concerned for the rest of the population.  Harris is doing worse in the polls right now than Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.  That's a concern to me.  What happened in 2022 may or may not be related to now. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

The polls have been looking good for Harris. The Pennsylvania ones in particular. MAGA is flooding a lot of right wing polls like they did in 2022. 

Quinnipiac yesterday looked bad for Harris, as did the NYT/Siena poll.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

He can get a House vote only if no one gets at least 270.

Someone will, no third party is going to win a EC vote this cycle. 

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Quinnipiac yesterday looked bad for Harris, as did the NYT/Siena poll.

NYT has been releasing funky polls. She isn’t losing Florida by 13. Besides, that poll had her up 3 nationally. If there was that big of a shift in Florida, that means she’s doing better in swing states. I also question Quinnipiac having Pennsylvania to the left of Michigan and Wisconsin. 

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I'm not pissing in my pants.  As an aging white middle class male, the outcome of the election is not likely to affect me much either way other than having to watch half the males in the country jerk off to one of the dumbest people I've ever seen for the next four years.  I am also concerned for the rest of the population.  Harris is doing worse in the polls right now than Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.  That's a concern to me.  What happened in 2022 may or may not be related to now. 

Response rates to polling have been steadily collapsing even since 2016. Political polling is  becoming a house of cards of assumptions about your sample that are pretty much unverifiable until after the election is over. 

[Motown Bombers]

*DUCKS*

 

[gehringer_2]

42 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Let’s not forget Democrats have been outperforming polls ever since Dobbs and Trump underperformed in the primary. 

This is the only real data point and there are enough reasons it may be leading!

[Motown Bombers]

She’s now outpacing Biden in multiple districts in Pennsylvania. 

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Response rates to polling have been steadily collapsing even since 2016. Political polling is  becoming a house of cards of assumptions about your sample that are pretty much unverifiable until after the election is over. 

Yeah, polls are less reliable than the used to be, but I'd still rather see Harris doing better than Trump in polling.  I see this forum get very excited about good polls and then saying the polls are flawed or don't matter when it's bad news.