Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: This is the only real data point and there are enough reasons it may be leading! It’s like people forget Haley was getting a good chunk of votes over a month after she dropped out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Yeah, polls are less reliable than the used to be, but I'd still rather see Harris doing better than Trump in polling. I see this forum get very excited about good polls and then saying the polls are flawed or don't matter when it's bad news. But she is doing better than Trump in polls. She still leads in the aggregate and in the battlegrounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Just now, Motown Bombers said: But she is doing better than Trump in polls. She still leads in the aggregate and in the battlegrounds. What did the polls say on the eve of Trump’s 2016 win? Apparently not what Hillary had been expecting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 32 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: She isn’t campaigning in Indiana. The office is in Gary and that district can be competitive. It’s also close to SW Michigan. I wish Michigan would Annex Gary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 1 minute ago, 1776 said: What did the polls say on the eve of Trump’s 2016 win? Apparently not what Hillary had been expecting. I remember having a chat with a Democrat worker in our neighbor about a week or so before the election. She didn't sound very encouraging. Our subdivision had several older Eastern Europeans living in it. They were all going for Trump at the time. Not surprising since on my limited encounters with a few of them (non political) they were all jerks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 1 minute ago, 1776 said: What did the polls say on the eve of Trump’s 2016 win? Apparently not what Hillary had been expecting. The polls got Hillary’s numbers exactly right. There were more 3rd party voters and undecideds in 2016. They went massively for Trump likely on the news of the emails. He also barely won. Clinton won the popular vote and it came down to less than 100k votes across three states. In 2016 Trump was an unknown. He isn’t any more and elections from 2022 are more relevant than 8 years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 3 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said: I wish Michigan would Annex Gary. No, you can have it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 (edited) 16 minutes ago, 1776 said: What did the polls say on the eve of Trump’s 2016 win? Apparently not what Hillary had been expecting. The mistake in 2016 is most pollsters closed up shop too early because conventional wisdom was the electorate is frozen a month out. IRRC, the few late polls did show Trump closing. Clinton got a huge boost coming out of the 1st debate but lost a lot of ground in the subsequent two, plus Mueller's thumb on the scale late, were all driving movement away from Clinton. The E-MailGate was critical because Clinton had always generated high negatives, there were a lot of people looking for an excuse not to vote for her. In contrast, Trump's campaign performance by any honest assessment is if anything getting worse by the week, his response to the hurricane has been a huge unforced error, other current news cycle preoccupations like Woodward's book are all working against Trump, and Harris has run a campaign surprising free of mistakes - so far, and Harris' and Walz' public people skills are just better than Clinton's were. Harris has run at far less risk of shooting herself in the foot with off-putting comments in public appearances. Edited October 10 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Speaking of 2016, 538 had Clinton at 48.5, Trump at 44.9, and Johnson at 5. Clinton finished at 48.2 but Trump at 46.1 and Johnson at 3.2. Trump got enough of that Johnson vote combined with a small move to Stein that gave him a slim win in three states. This year there isn’t a 3rd party polling at 5%. That’s why the margins are slimmer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Speaking of 2016, 538 had Clinton at 48.5, Trump at 44.9, and Johnson at 5. Clinton finished at 48.2 but Trump at 46.1 and Johnson at 3.2. Trump got enough of that Johnson vote combined with a small move to Stein that gave him a slim win in three states. This year there isn’t a 3rd party polling at 5%. That’s why the margins are slimmer. to me the fundamental questions remain - who is voting for Trump that didn't vote for him in 2020, who is not voting for Harris that voted for Biden in 2020 - especially since Dobbs? Maybe there is some groundswell movement in the country I have completely missed, but I can't see answers to those questions that favor Trump. Edited October 10 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 I'll tell you another thing which is probably flying under the US media radar, which is non-maga Christians are starting to push back harder against the Christian Nationalist movement internally in a way that was not present 4 and certainly not 8 yrs ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: to me the fundamental questions remain - who is voting for Trump that didn't vote for him in 2020, who is not voting for Harris that voted for Biden in 2020 - especially since Dobbs? Maybe there is some groundswell movement in the country I have completely missed, but I can't see answers to those questions that favor Trump. The only ones I can think that may not vote Harris who voted Biden in 2020 are Muslims. The only state that could have an effect is Michigan but Michigan is the most left leaning of the swing states. There are a lot more Republicans this cycle saying they are voting for Harris than any cycle in memory. I also don’t the electoral advantage is as big as it had been in the past for Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 10 Author Share Posted October 10 49 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Time to send in ballots 2-8 now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 7 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: Can you imagine if she were shown on film shooting a perfect group with the glock Angie Dickinson style? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 She's bringing out the "Big Dogs". Is Obama next... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 11 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: She's bringing out the "Big Dogs". Is Obama next... Obama is already scheduled for a Pittsburgh rally. I like deploying Clinton in the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Actually, Obama is having a rally today, and he's just getting started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Meanwhile Trump's hiding from the mainstream press Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 18 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Obama is already scheduled for a Pittsburgh rally. I like deploying Clinton in the south. The talk at the convention was fine but I don’t see how having Bill Clinton out on the campaign trail moves the needle forward. Anyone that’s influenced by him at this point is already a strong Democrat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 And he's paying for it how? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 8 minutes ago, Hongbit said: The talk at the convention was fine but I don’t see how having Bill Clinton out on the campaign trail moves the needle forward. Anyone that’s influenced by him at this point is already a strong Democrat. Not at all. A lot of Boomers voted for Clinton in the 90’s who are now Republicans. He also has appeal to white southerners which is why he’s being deployed in Georgia and North Carolina. All hands on deck. Use him strategically which they are. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 (edited) I'm holding out for free steaks for every grill... I'll wager he'll never advocate interest free loans on tuitions...making the retroactive to 20 years Edited October 10 by CMRivdogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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