2024 Presidential Election thread

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

the doddering autocrat, the fawning wannabe dog murderer

loss of inappropriate impulse inhibition. It's been getting more obvious in his speech patterns and now it's bleeding into his physical states. You are watching the process of the frontal cortex disconnecting from its supervisory functions. Likely vascular dementia progressing.

[CMRivdogs]

12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Would be much more amusing if it weren't real life...

The clip I keep seeing is him swaying to Time to Say Goodbye. The song has become something like the second most popular song to play at funerals. Not exactly a way to stir up a crowd at a rally

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I’ve been thinking for weeks now about whether Kamala could sit down with Joe Rogan, and I came to the conclusion that it’s a humongous risk that could go completely upside down for her, so she would not do it. Three of the fairly likely outcomes include (1) she has an inadvertent screwup that makes her look bad, (2) he checkmates her on a point and she looks weak; (3) she gets into a scrape with him and she looks petty. In all three of these scenarios Rogan makes hay on it in the final weeks leading up to November 5, and that could motivate the part of his base that wouldn’t care about voting otherwise to sprint to the polls to vote for Trump.

Another likely outcome is that the interview falls through and Trump blasts her for chickening out.

The unlikely outcome is that Kamala has a good sitdown and gets Rogan to come over to her side, for which his subscribers would start abandoning him.

None of those scenarios get her votes from Rogan’s subscribers. They make up the core of Trump’s infantry.

The only upside I can see is that she wins the news cycle with Rogan, which might or might not end up as a push.

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Would be much more amusing if it weren't real life...

Aye - there's the rub. Your average low information GOP habituated voter is just going to be working from an assumption that a party wouldn't run a person that was becoming incompetent by the day, after all the Dems pulled Biden, isn't that proof there are sufficient firewalls? They have no real sense of the collapse of the GOP integrity and the complicity of the mass media's normalization of Trump.

And to some degree it's the nature of the beast. Dementias can be fairly narrow, are each different, and they are often easy to ignore/miss without spending longer periods of time than the US media is ever prepared to spend. When my mother started failing, she was so clever and her language faculty so good, that he could engage her doctors easily in a 10 or 15 minute encounter, but spend the day with her and the fact the she was 'looping' and that her ability to integrate short term memory was failing became clear.

[oblong]

I don't think Rogan is the tough guy he pretends to be.  She'd mop him up and he'd save. She's tough.  If she doesn't do it then it will be for other reasons.  

 

[oblong]

36 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Would be much more amusing if it weren't real life...

that reminds me of some uncomfortable moments in church as a kid.... 

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, oblong said:

I don't think Rogan is the tough guy he pretends to be.  She'd mop him up and he'd save. She's tough.  If she doesn't do it then it will be for other reasons.  

 

I'm not at all saying he would mop the floor with her. All it would take is one bad exchange, and she is not immune to that. The bar is super high for her. In fact, she's the only one with any bar at all.

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, oblong said:

that reminds me of some uncomfortable moments in church as a kid.... 

That's the advantage of Catholic Mass over evangelical services. The entire Mass has been honed to a very tight script, the homily being the only improv opportunity. The risk for Mass is not discomfort, it's boredom.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, chasfh said:

she's the only one with any bar at all.

Exactly - that is the issue. The other questions are how much of Rogan's audience is persuadable, or even votes? I'd want to answer those questions before bothering to play out the downside risk scenarios.

[CMRivdogs]

 

[CMRivdogs]

The entire segment was good. The last question....

 

[oblong]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That's the advantage of Catholic Mass over evangelical services. The entire Mass has been honed to a very tight script, the homily being the only improv opportunity. The risk for Mass is not discomfort, it's boredom.

yep.  There's a playbook.  In the 90's we did have a priest with, probably, some mental health issues, who would ramble and ramble and eventually he was sent away to the home.  At one point someone said "Father, you've been talking now for 45 minutes..."  And it wasn't a logical homily.  It was in the spirit of this thread.

[CMRivdogs]

I wonder if last night's Time To Say Goodbye performance had anything to do with it

 

[Motown Bombers]

In case any of you wanted to buy the knife. 

 

[ewsieg]

29 minutes ago, oblong said:

I don't think Rogan is the tough guy he pretends to be.  She'd mop him up and he'd save. She's tough.  If she doesn't do it then it will be for other reasons.  

 

Do you ever listen to Rogan?  He doesn't come across or even try to be a 'tough guy' on the podcast.  I would seriously be surprised if he was combative towards her.  He will force a topic back to the front if he feels it's being dodged though, but every interviewer should do that.  2 months ago I would have said her doing Rogan's show would be the best thing for her.  I don't think this media blitz has done anything to make me think that anymore.  I know she's not stupid, but she hasn't shown anything to indicate she's smart either.  If she goes on Rogan with the same playbook she's been using, I don't think it wins over anyone and long form interviews always have a risk to them.  I kind of feel like she's playing prevent defense right now and it scares me a bit, but it might be the best thing.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

In case any of you wanted to buy the knife. 

 

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I kind of feel like she's playing prevent defense right now and it scares me a bit, but it might be the best thing

it's sort of interesting - in the earlier days of live interviews, if an interviewer asked a question that the interviewee didn't want to answer, the normal response was to give a reason why they weren't going to address that question. Today, the SOP by virtually all candidates - not only Harris by any means, is just to ignore the question and talk about what they want to talk about. I won't say it doesn't seem off putting to me, but at this point I have to believe all this stuff is so thoroughly audience tested that they must believe that's the better course.

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I know she's not stupid, but she hasn't shown anything to indicate she's smart either

You have your alternative, then.

[Motown Bombers]

This Rogan interview would have nothing to do with his audience. It’s about applying pressure to Trump who refuses to do interviews with hostile media. 

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

This Rogan interview would have nothing to do with his audience. It’s about applying pressure to Trump who refuses to do interviews with hostile media. 

I understand that argument, but I'm not persuaded of its strength. I don't think the Trump voter cares if he sees Trump on MSNBC or even CNBC. That voter is perfectly content to get his Trump fix from the captive media RW media sphere. OTOH, I don't see Trump's managers allowing him to go onto neutral ground given his current state no matter what comparison Harris tries to establish. At this point the risks to him with the uncommitteds and GOP habit voters are worse to show himself live than to just stick with advertising.

Edited October 15, 2024 by gehringer_2

[CMRivdogs]

Read the entire thread on the Trump "Myth" (lies)

Edited October 15, 2024 by CMRivdogs

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I understand that argument, but I'm not persuaded of its strength. I don't think the Trump voter cares if he sees Trump on MSNBC or even CNBC. That voter is perfectly content to get his Trump fix from the captive media RW media sphere. OTOH, I don't see Trump's managers allowing him to go onto neutral ground given his current state no matter what comparison Harris tries to establish. At this point the risks to him with the uncommitteds and GOP habit voters are worse to show himself live than to just stick with advertising.

It’s not about the Trump voters. It’s about the jackasses in the middle who are “undecided”. Harris can bring them home by showing she’s willing to do the tough interviews. 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

Been screaming it into the void for years.

But when you add mental decline to the pre-existing deficiencies, the picture ends up so much more bleak

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I understand that argument, but I'm not persuaded of its strength. I don't think the Trump voter cares if he sees Trump on MSNBC or even CNBC. That voter is perfectly content to get his Trump fix from the captive media RW media sphere. OTOH, I don't see Trump's managers allowing him to go onto neutral ground given his current state no matter what comparison Harris tries to establish. At this point the risks to him with the uncommitteds and GOP habit voters are worse to show himself live than to just stick with advertising.

Speaking of CNBC

 

[mtutiger]

Going on Rogan is a lot of things, but "prevent defense" isn't the term that comes to mind for me.