2024 Presidential Election thread

[Mr.TaterSalad]

25 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The way he starts out an event with some kind of mental cohesion and then sort of deconstructs before one's eyes a few minutes later is getting pretty striking.

How much of that though is him starting out using his teleprompter and then straying from it as it goes on and just rambling or riffing?

[pfife]

Ive heard Cal Thomas's old ass on CSPAN many times now, and hes on currently and has already stated hes undecided on Trump (???) and has stated he agrees with some of VP Harris's critique of Trump.

He also mentioned a pollster who tends to poll religious folks and theyre finding a more significant number of them saying theyre not going to vote.

[Motown Bombers]

I’m glad to see Cuban on the campaign trail. He’s got real business cred unlike Musk and Trump. He’s been a big advocate for Harris and her economic policy. This will counter well Trump is a businessman. 

 

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Right at the 2:00 mark, after he mumbled, “Ashley Babbitt died, nobody died …”, one of the women in the crowd shot did a head-snapping double-take.

That head snap is the sound of a vote lost.

 

He's had a lot of bad moments in interviews lately, but in the context of this campaign (and the importance of the Hispanic vote within it), that Univision interview is probably the most damaging.

Obviously low expectations for impact as nothing ever seems to matter, but it was by no means a good thing for him.

[mtutiger]

 

[Motown Bombers]

How do Republicans whose brains aren’t pudding explain this? 

 

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

How do Republicans whose brains aren’t pudding explain this? 

 

since Trump said it it is true.  Motherly love for children is not as important as tariff protection for the aluminum industry

[CMRivdogs]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

How do Republicans whose brains aren’t pudding explain this? 

 

I hear him talking like this and the Association's Cherish comes to mind.

Tariff is the word I use to describe you.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, pfife said:

Ive heard Cal Thomas's old ass on CSPAN many times now, and hes on currently and has already stated hes undecided on Trump (???) and has stated he agrees with some of VP Harris's critique of Trump.

He also mentioned a pollster who tends to poll religious folks and theyre finding a more significant number of them saying theyre not going to vote.

Religious voters are a subset, but Rural Whites really feel like an overlooked group in this election.... so much attention given to other groups (Hispanics, Blacks, Suburban/Col Ed Whites), but while I think the assumption is Trump matches his 2020 run here, honestly IDK.

Dobbs looms large here too, not just because of how it might speak to secular rural whites, but also to the pollster's point, the fact that Trump's post-Dobbs positioning is at least marginally a wedge for his more religious supporters.

Edited Thursday at 02:32 PM by mtutiger

[oblong]

1 hour ago, pfife said:

Ive heard Cal Thomas's old ass on CSPAN many times now, and hes on currently and has already stated hes undecided on Trump (???) and has stated he agrees with some of VP Harris's critique of Trump.

He also mentioned a pollster who tends to poll religious folks and theyre finding a more significant number of them saying theyre not going to vote.

Wow, that dude is still alive?  Even before my conversion I turned that guy off as he was too religious for my liking.

But... what he said there is something.  You can't discount that and I think it's an area where pollsters could miss. If what he says is true then it has to be true in a lot of places.  Like mtu says.... it's the margins. 

 

[Edman85]

I heard my new favorite columnist was on CNN last night. The way she stuck to facts while being barraged by smug from O'Leary and that Jennings character. Oh, and Bunk is on this panel for some reason?

https://youtu.be/OwignVX4loI?feature=shared

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, oblong said:

Wow, that dude is still alive?  Even before my conversion I turned that guy off as he was too religious for my liking.

But... what he said there is something.  You can't discount that and I think it's an area where pollsters could miss. If what he says is true then it has to be true in a lot of places.  Like mtu says.... it's the margins. 

 

I would only add to my post as well, if we're talking about margins, is that you have to consider the percentage of the electorate that these groups might make up versus four years ago as well.

I'm not entirely sure what percentage of the electorate is made up of religious conservatives so IDK what that difference might be there, but in terms of rural whites (using them as a proxy here), they make up a smaller amount of the electorate with each passing cycle. What that means is that Trump has to juice more out of that group every time in order to keep up... or find new voters elsewhere in the electorate (which, not sure the degree of success, they clearly have been trying to do with Hispanics/Black Males)

[pfife]

18 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I heard my new favorite columnist was on CNN last night. The way she stuck to facts while being barraged by smug from O'Leary and that Jennings character. Oh, and Bunk is on this panel for some reason?

https://youtu.be/OwignVX4loI?feature=shared

That is an incredible video.   Assuming Rampell is your new fav?  She's an ass kicker for sure.

I've honestly never seen more ridiculous collection of strawmen and I've posted in this forum for almost 20 years

[pfife]

woah woah I thought you may have been talking about *that* Bunk but it really is Bunk!   LOL!

[pfife]

25 minutes ago, oblong said:

Wow, that dude is still alive?  Even before my conversion I turned that guy off as he was too religious for my liking.

But... what he said there is something.  You can't discount that and I think it's an area where pollsters could miss. If what he says is true then it has to be true in a lot of places.  Like mtu says.... it's the margins. 

 

he makes a lot of jokes about how old he is an how much work he's gotta put in at the gym to stay looking so young

There might be an overton's window thing going on here but he's actually one of the most reasonable Unified Reichers they have on that show these days

[MichiganCardinal]

As someone who more passively pays attention to these things, it sure feels like Harris has been running a mistake-free campaign since taking over the torch. The transition was seamless and she understands both her opponent and the battle field.

She is going far and wide to pickup as many votes as she can. The name of the game is turnout, but that goes both ways. Yes you need record Democratic turnout, and I think they’re well on their way. But also - if you can dishearten some number of vital rural voters in MI and PA who will never vote blue, but might not vote Trump? That’s just as well.

On the other side of things, Trump has probably 70,000,000 votes no matter what either he or Harris does. Shoot someone on 5th Avenue and all that. That’s an indicting systemic embarrassment on this country, but it is what it is. There’s no changing it. But it wasn’t enough in 2020, and Trump doesn’t seem particularly inclined to increase it. I honestly don’t think he cares. I’m sure he has people telling him “this is what you need to do to pickup votes”, but he’s a narcissistic old man who genuinely believes that he can’t lose. He doesn’t give a ****.

I could be wrong. But I was worried in 2016, cautiously optimistic in 2020, and am currently more confident than I was in either of those two elections. I think we are trending towards a Harris victory where she wins it walking away.

[MichiganCardinal]

As an aside, I mentioned that I voted absentee two weeks ago. It still hasn’t been marked as received, and given the ~state of affairs~ surrounding absentee ballots and nonsensical allegations of voter fraud, I thought it wise to call up my clerk’s office.

I live in a *very* conservative rural area in Monroe County, the kind where local officials run unopposed as Republicans. When I called, I wasn’t sure what to expect. But the clerk herself answered the phone and was the nicest public official I may have ever spoken to. She apologized for the delay and said she can see my ballot was sent but that they haven’t marked it in yet. Took my phone number and said she’d call either way by the end of the day and work with me to spoil it and send a new one if needed, or that they found it and marked it in.

Despite the national narrative and push by a certain side to encourage certain people to do certain illegal things (like overthrow a certain democratic election), I think the majority of local officials remain good people who are in it for the right reasons. I was encouraged by the phone call.

[LaceyLou]

8 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

As an aside, I mentioned that I voted absentee two weeks ago. It still hasn’t been marked as received, and given the ~state of affairs~ surrounding absentee ballots and nonsensical allegations of voter fraud, I thought it wise to call up my clerk’s office.

I live in a *very* conservative rural area in Monroe County, the kind where local officials run unopposed as Republicans. When I called, I wasn’t sure what to expect. But the clerk herself answered the phone and was the nicest public official I may have ever spoken to. She apologized for the delay and said she can see my ballot was sent but that they haven’t marked it in yet. Took my phone number and said she’d call either way by the end of the day and work with me to spoil it and send a new one if needed, or that they found it and marked it in.

Despite the national narrative and push by a certain side to encourage certain people to do certain illegal things (like overthrow a certain democratic election), I think the majority of local officials remain good people who are in it for the right reasons. I was encouraged by the phone call.

It would definitely be great to go to a place where people mostly want the same things, just disagree about getting there. As it is it's getting to the point where maintaining infrastructure that people depend on (directly or indirectly) feels like pulling teeth.

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

As someone who more passively pays attention to these things, it sure feels like Harris has been running a mistake-free campaign since taking over the torch. The transition was seamless and she understands both her opponent and the battle field.

She is going far and wide to pickup as many votes as she can. The name of the game is turnout, but that goes both ways. Yes you need record Democratic turnout, and I think they’re well on their way. But also - if you can dishearten some number of vital rural voters in MI and PA who will never vote blue, but might not vote Trump? That’s just as well.

On the other side of things, Trump has probably 70,000,000 votes no matter what either he or Harris does. Shoot someone on 5th Avenue and all that. That’s an indicting systemic embarrassment on this country, but it is what it is. There’s no changing it. But it wasn’t enough in 2020, and Trump doesn’t seem particularly inclined to increase it. I honestly don’t think he cares. I’m sure he has people telling him “this is what you need to do to pickup votes”, but he’s a narcissistic old man who genuinely believes that he can’t lose. He doesn’t give a ****.

I could be wrong. But I was worried in 2016, cautiously optimistic in 2020, and am currently more confident than I was in either of those two elections. I think we are trending towards a Harris victory where she wins it walking away.

This is a really good post.... whatever *this* is, it doesn't feel like 2016. And it doesn't feel like 2020 either, which in and of itself was a black swan event because of COVID.

There may be things here or there that I might pick nits with, but if she loses, it's not going to be about the campaign she ran. It's going to be on the American people, or at least those in the states that will decide the election, choosing Trump. 

Edited Thursday at 03:50 PM by mtutiger

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

After Vance and company pull the 25th amendment and remove DJT, they'll install Jr as the VP. Keeping the grift in the family

Honest question: do red hats love Coke Zero as much as they love Agent Orange?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

I hear him talking like this and the Association's Cherish comes to mind.

Tariff is the word I use to describe you.

"Cherish" was my favorite song at one time. I think I was five.

[CMRivdogs]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

"Cherish" was my favorite song at one time. I think I was five.

I was 12 about the time of my first serious crush.

[CMRivdogs]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Honest question: do red hats love Coke Zero as much as they love Agent Orange?

Not sure but I think it's the Coke Zero that keeps Trump in Depends

[romad1]

17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Honest question: do red hats love Coke Zero as much as they love Agent Orange?

We haven't seen such an obvious cocaine user since the final scene of Scarface. 

[Motown Bombers]