Motown Bombers Posted Friday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:02 PM (edited) 11 minutes ago, Edman85 said: The models that have Trump as a very slight favorite at the moment have partisan lean adjustments for polls an devalue low quality polls. Quinnipiac and Emerson College had Trump up in Wisconsin this week. Emerson had Trump up in Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac had Trump up 3.5 in Michigan. Quinnipiac had Trump up 6 in Georgia. I could keep going. It's not just right wing polls. My theory is the misinformation on hurricanes is gaining traction, which is a little ****ed up if so. Talk about cherry-picking. Quinnipiac had Harris up 3 in North Carolina so that would debunk the hurricane theory. The Georgia one used in R+7 sample and North Carolina D+3 sample. You really think there is a 10 point difference between Georgia and North Carolina? And that Georgia has moved farther to the right than in 2016? Emerson has been a right leaning poll. They were in 2022. The models continue to use junk polls like they did in 2022. Nate Silver even created an alter ego to condescend to Democrats and it the alter ego was more accurate than he was. Why in all these states are the down ballot Dems doing well? I believe they are weighting to not under estimate Trump. Edited Friday at 11:03 PM by Motown Bombers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Friday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:05 PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted Friday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:06 PM 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: Talk about cherry-picking. Quinnipiac had Harris up 3 in North Carolina so that would debunk the hurricane theory. The Georgia one used in R+7 sample and North Carolina D+3 sample. You really think there is a 10 point difference between Georgia and North Carolina? And that Georgia has moved farther to the right than in 2016? Emerson has been a right leaning poll. They were in 2022. The models continue to use junk polls like they did in 2022. Nate Silver even created an alter ego to condescend to Democrats and it the alter ego was more accurate than he was. Why in all these states are the down ballot Dems doing well? I believe they are weighting to not under estimate Trump. Well, I was cherry picking back, looking at two high quality pollsters though. Here's Silver's page for recent Wisconsin polls. This doesn't look like a "rest easy" situation. Noting that the right wing polls are filtered out. He actually ran a sim this week without those polls which showed better for Trump, showing that the partisan adjustment is doing its job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Friday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:16 PM 6 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Well, I was cherry picking back, looking at two high quality pollsters though. Here's Silver's page for recent Wisconsin polls. This doesn't look like a "rest easy" situation. Noting that the right wing polls are filtered out. He actually ran a sim this week without those polls which showed better for Trump, showing that the partisan adjustment is doing its job. I mean, I posted the Quinnipiac Georgia number like over a day ago so I’m not sure what you are cherry picking back. All those Wisconsin polls are right wing except Emerson which is just right leaning and Quinnipiac which doesn’t adjust the weight of their sample. Rasmussen literally colluded with the Trump campaign and Patriot Polling is two MAGA high schoolers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted Friday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:21 PM 3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I mean, I posted the Quinnipiac Georgia number like over a day ago so I’m not sure what you are cherry picking back. All those Wisconsin polls are right wing except Emerson which is just right leaning and Quinnipiac which doesn’t adjust the weight of their sample. Rasmussen literally colluded with the Trump campaign and Patriot Polling is two MAGA high schoolers. You realize if a right leaning poll is added to the mix they adjust, right? Like if they have Rasmussen +3R and Rasmussen comes in +5R, the model adjusts the input to +2R and reduces its overall weighting on top of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Friday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:27 PM (edited) On 10/17/2024 at 2:37 PM, Mr.TaterSalad said: I absolutely think that is a part of their strategy. They feel like they are tied or ahead in this race. The less people see of Trump the better in his strategists minds. They don't want the average voter and swing voter to be exposed to the ridiculous stuff he says and the demented fool he has slowly eroded into. So the Harris strategy should be to keep on talking about how dangerous and incompetent he is. He won't be able to resist saying something ridiculous in response. Edited Friday at 11:44 PM by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Friday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:31 PM 8 minutes ago, Edman85 said: You realize if a right leaning poll is added to the mix they adjust, right? Like if they have Rasmussen +3R and Rasmussen comes in +5R, the model adjusts the input to +2R and reduces its overall weighting on top of that. Junk polls are junk polls and they did this in 2022 and the models were off even with adjusting. Nate Silver just said well Democrats should just put out more junk polls. Steve Bannon even said this was the strategy before he went to prison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Friday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:34 PM Nate Silver runs Polymarket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Friday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:43 PM 2 hours ago, Edman85 said: I'm troubled by the polls the last week or two. Despite the cherry picked ones here telling another story. Based on the polls, Harris has lost the momentum she had previously. I am also a little concerned that she is behind where Clinton and Biden were at this stage. Some here seem confident that Republicans underperforming the mid-terms will carry over to Trump, but I am not at all convinced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Friday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:51 PM 6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Based on the polls, Harris has lost the momentum she had previously. I am also a little concerned that she is behind where Clinton and Biden were at this stage. Some here seem confident that Republicans underperforming the mid-terms will carry over to Trump, but I am not at all convinced. There's also the fact Trump underperformed the primaries, and polling methodologies have changed to not undercount Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Friday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:56 PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted Saturday at 12:04 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:04 AM 6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I'm not sure if I just hit the right live feed but appears the Mics have gone dead on Trump in Det Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted Saturday at 12:12 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:12 AM 27 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Based on the polls, Harris has lost the momentum she had previously. I am also a little concerned that she is behind where Clinton and Biden were at this stage. Some here seem confident that Republicans underperforming the mid-terms will carry over to Trump, but I am not at all convinced. Polls are only as good as the modeling done to make them... Especially in an environment of decreasing response rates and public pollsters fearful of, yet again, underestimating Trump a third time I don't know what is going to happen in this election. I know that 538 and Silver say this thing is basically 50/50, but would not be surprised it ended up a blowout in either direction. Embrace uncertainty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Saturday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:19 AM 5 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Polls are only as good as the modeling done to make them... Especially in an environment of decreasing response rates and public pollsters fearful of, yet again, underestimating Trump a third time I don't know what is going to happen in this election. I know that 538 and Silver say this thing is basically 50/50, but would not be surprised it ended up a blowout in either direction. Embrace uncertainty A blow out is possible, but I'd be very surprised by a blow out in either direction. I think the polls can predict a blow out. That is why we are already sure of the outcome in most states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted Saturday at 12:23 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:23 AM 1 minute ago, Tiger337 said: A blow out is possible, but I'd be very surprised by a blow out in either direction. I think the polls can predict a blow out. That is why we are already sure of the outcome in most states. Speaking more to EC when I say blowout, fwiw. A ~1-2 point miss in either direction across each of the seven states would result in a sweep of all seven states at this current moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted Saturday at 12:31 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:31 AM Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Saturday at 12:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:39 AM 12 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Speaking more to EC when I say blowout, fwiw. A ~1-2 point miss in either direction across each of the seven states would result in a sweep of all seven states at this current moment OK, I would agree with that, except I wouldn't consider losing narrowly in all the swing states to be a blow out. It would probably mean it was a tense race where we wait days to determine the winner. It would also lead to a lot of unrest regardless of the outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted Saturday at 12:46 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:46 AM (edited) 9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: OK, I would agree with that, except I wouldn't consider losing narrowly in all the swing states to be a blow out. It would probably mean it was a tense race where we wait days to determine the winner. It would also lead to a lot of unrest regardless of the outcome. Maybe not, honestly... If Trump or Harris end up winning NC, GA and MI, all of whom we should have a good idea night of, we will go to bed knowing. My bigger point is that the polls don't price in the idea that these states often just end going together one way or another together, not independently Edited Saturday at 12:48 AM by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Saturday at 01:14 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:14 AM Sharp response by Harris. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Saturday at 01:22 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:22 AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted Saturday at 01:34 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:34 AM 59 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Wow Oh, what a shame. btw, I think you could properly define his movements on stage as a slow lumbering. He looks exhausted, honestly. This “keep myself out of jail” tour is 4 years old, and it’s time for it to end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Saturday at 01:48 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:48 AM (edited) 26 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: More projection. Edited Saturday at 01:48 AM by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted Saturday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:50 AM Imagine if Harris' go home message was get your husband's fat ass off the couch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Saturday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:54 AM It wouldn't make sense because obese men are more likely to be Republicans. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted Saturday at 02:22 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:22 AM (edited) He's old, tired, and haggard. Bernie was old when I voted for him in 2020 and 2016, but I never saw Bernie falling asleep on the campaign trail. Edited Saturday at 02:23 AM by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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