2024 Presidential Election thread

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

He's old, tired, and haggard. Bernie was old when I voted for him in 2020 and 2016, but I never saw Bernie falling asleep on the campaign trail. 

Can you imagine the pharmaceuticals they are pumping this guy up with just to keep him going even as well as he is?

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I'll say this. If he wins, it's unequivocally not on Harris or her campaign, they have honestly gone above and beyond even my expectations given how the campaign came to be in the first place... It's on the voters. Enough people in the right places wanted this. 

It doesn't mean that that the Harris campaign doesn't have the responsibility of making the case between now and election day obviously, but at some point we need to stop blaming the candidates and start looking in the mirror. This is about as clear a choice as it gets just on basic competence 

Blame the voters all you want for not suddenly snapping out of their zeitgeist reverie en masse, but it really does come down to a combination of a poor educational system that values worker bees over critical thinkers, and a fragmented media environment that make delicious conspiracy theories so goddamned accessible. People used to have to seek out Bircher-type content—now it comes into people’s inbox practically unbidden, and not exactly unwelcome.

If you’re being honest and you want to blame the right thing here, you might just have to blame the whole idea of universal democracy in the first place, because this state of affairs is exactly what the conservative elites of the 18th Century warned against.

[chasfh]

Am I the only person here who doesn’t give a flying **** about polls? So many of them are so compromised that they tell us literally nothing about what to expect from election results.

[The Ronz]

I don't care about the polls but then again I think Trump is going to win handily.

The Republicans will win the House and Senate too.

[chasfh]

17 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

I don't care about the polls but then again I think Trump is going to win handily.

The Republicans will win the House and Senate too.

I guess at that point I'll get my gun and my single bullet, since I am not interested in landing in any MAGA death camp. 😉

[chasfh]

Weren't we posting this exact thing on the old board during his actual administration?

 

[Tiger337]

41 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Am I the only person here who doesn’t give a flying **** about polls? So many of them are so compromised that they tell us literally nothing about what to expect from election results.

If most of the polls are all moving in the same direction, they can tell you something about momentum.  Ttump had the momentum versus Biden.  When Harris became the candidate, she got the momentum.  Now, it seems to have shifted back to Trump. 

 

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If most of the polls are all moving in the same direction,

I will grant that if the same poll using the same methodology shows movement over time it's significant, but I'm a bit skeptical what we are seeing recently meets that standard.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If most of the polls are all moving in the same direction, they can tell you something about momentum.  Ttump had the momentum versus Biden.  When Harris became the candidate, she got the momentum.  Now, it seems to have shifted back to Trump. 

 

Hillary was up comfortably in all the final polls before that election. Biden was up eight points in the average of top polls before that election. What did these tell us about the election results?

I don’t think polls matter anymore, except as entertainment value, and perhaps as evidence in the court cases seeking to overturn the election. 

[Tiger337]

I think polls probably work better than a bunch of message board posters blissfully thinking that Harris will win with little to back it up.  They also work better than one poster who insists Trump will win because 100% of his friends love him.  

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Hillary was up comfortably in all the final polls before that election. Biden was up eight points in the average of top polls before that election. What did these tell us about the election results?

I don’t think polls matter anymore, except as entertainment value, and perhaps as evidence in the court cases seeking to overturn the election. 

The polls definitely seemed to move away from Clinton the last couple of weeks after the new info about the e-mails was revealed by the FBI.  

[pfife]

What about arnold palmers genetalia?

[Motown Bombers]

The polls aren't showing movement to Trump. All the non partisan independent polls show the race is still the same as it was before. Republicans have been flooding the zone with junk polls. There was a right wing poll of Michigan that showed Trump winning. The crosstabs had Harris actually winning the male vote, Trump winning the female vote by 8, and Harris only getting 54% of the black vote. It gets thrown into the average anyways. There have been about 70 of these junk polls in the last 30 days. They did this in 2022. Steve Bannon said this was the strategy. People were warned they were going to do it again, and Dems still wet themselves over these junk polls. 

Early voting has been favorable or Harris, fundraising has been favorable to Harris; She has a much better ground operation; Republicans are coming out of the woodwork to support Harris; and Republicans wouldn't be putting out all these polls if they were winning. Republican internals have not looked good. Elon Musk is paying people $1 million to vote for Trump. They are trying to create a narrative that Trump is winning and you guys are falling for it after they did the same thing in 2022. 

[Motown Bombers]

This flooding of right wing polls very likely cost Dems the senate in Wisconsin. They polled funding for Barnes because they believed he was going to lose.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

[gehringer_2]

What's curious is why the Dems are not releasing any. Obviously the Blue side has not stopped polling. I know they figure fundraising to hold up better if there is a requisite amount of panic out there, but it still seems to me that at some point you can over do that - you need a little good news too if you have it.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

The polls aren't showing movement to Trump. All the non partisan independent polls show the race is still the same as it was before. Republicans have been flooding the zone with junk polls. There was a right wing poll of Michigan that showed Trump winning. The crosstabs had Harris actually winning the male vote, Trump winning the female vote by 8, and Harris only getting 54% of the black vote. It gets thrown into the average anyways. There have been about 70 of these junk polls in the last 30 days. They did this in 2022. Steve Bannon said this was the strategy. People were warned they were going to do it again, and Dems still wet themselves over these junk polls. 

Early voting has been favorable or Harris, fundraising has been favorable to Harris; She has a much better ground operation; Republicans are coming out of the woodwork to support Harris; and Republicans wouldn't be putting out all these polls if they were winning. Republican internals have not looked good. Elon Musk is paying people $1 million to vote for Trump. They are trying to create a narrative that Trump is winning and you guys are falling for it after they did the same thing in 2022. 

I know how to distiguish betweem Republican polls like Rasmussen and Atlas and more unbiased polls. I think you may be you're falling for the rosy narrative being pushing by Democrats since all you keep posting about is how she is going win Florida and Ohio...Maybe that was pfife though, I don't remember because you guys are such good friends.    .😃  

Edited Sunday at 04:37 AM by Tiger337

[pfife]

Yeah no

I didnt say that **** at all 

Not a fan of hashtag election Twitter 

Edited Sunday at 01:07 PM by pfife

[Tigerbomb13]

 

[Motown Bombers]

9 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I know how to distiguish betweem Republican polls like Rasmussen and Atlas and more unbiased polls. I think you may be you're falling for the rosy narrative being pushing by Democrats since all you keep posting about is how she is going win Florida and Ohio...Maybe that was pfife though, I don't remember because you guys are such good friends.    .😃  

LOL rosy narrative being pushed by Democrats. The Democrats never push any rosy narrative. It's always doom and gloom. They ran Biden out over a debate. I don't think you do know how to distinguish the junk polls since there have been dozens of them. The quality polls are getting aged out in the 538 model and being replaced by these junk polls. This is exactly what they did in 2022. I called it out at the time, and people said I was falling for the rosy narrative then and would just say the fundamentals. Everyone was so quick to just ignore Dobbs and what happened in Kansas. When Dems deserted MI-10, I tried to tell anyone who would listen it was winnable. Dems lost by 0.5% with a candidate with no money. This wasn't a rosy narrative. It was all doom and gloom and bracing for the red wave that never happened. 

I've never said she was going to win Ohio. I've posted the occasional poll, including Trump's own internal, that showed he was only +4 in Ohio. If he is only +4 in Ohio, he isn't winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I also said that bodes well for Sherrod Brown, which it does. I never at any point said she was going to win Ohio. 

Florida was a Trump +3 state. It has historically for the past several decades, been a swing state. Trump's margin of victory was similar to Biden's in Michigan. I don't know when Florida became Idaho. Abortion is on the ballot; marijuana is on the ballot; Dems are running a candidate in every house district. Harris has a large field operation in Florida that she just expanded yet again this past week. The DNC has invested money in Florida. Polling has shown it in low single digits. I've said over and over it is in play. I never said she would win it. I think it's 50/50 right now, and true tossup. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, pfife said:

Yeah no

I didnt say that **** at all 

 

I know

[Tiger337]

42 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

LOL rosy narrative being pushed by Democrats. The Democrats never push any rosy narrative. It's always doom and gloom. They ran Biden out over a debate. I don't think you do know how to distinguish the junk polls since there have been dozens of them. The quality polls are getting aged out in the 538 model and being replaced by these junk polls. This is exactly what they did in 2022. I called it out at the time, and people said I was falling for the rosy narrative then and would just say the fundamentals. Everyone was so quick to just ignore Dobbs and what happened in Kansas. When Dems deserted MI-10, I tried to tell anyone who would listen it was winnable. Dems lost by 0.5% with a candidate with no money. This wasn't a rosy narrative. It was all doom and gloom and bracing for the red wave that never happened. 

I've never said she was going to win Ohio. I've posted the occasional poll, including Trump's own internal, that showed he was only +4 in Ohio. If he is only +4 in Ohio, he isn't winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I also said that bodes well for Sherrod Brown, which it does. I never at any point said she was going to win Ohio. 

Florida was a Trump +3 state. It has historically for the past several decades, been a swing state. Trump's margin of victory was similar to Biden's in Michigan. I don't know when Florida became Idaho. Abortion is on the ballot; marijuana is on the ballot; Dems are running a candidate in every house district. Harris has a large field operation in Florida that she just expanded yet again this past week. The DNC has invested money in Florida. Polling has shown it in low single digits. I've said over and over it is in play. I never said she would win it. I think it's 50/50 right now, and true tossup. 

I am not at all active in politics like you seem to be, but it's really easy to figure out which polls lean Republican.  

Yes, democrats tend to be doom and gloom but I get these sunshine sites popping up on my facebook and Twitter and you sound just like them now.  Most of the people in this forum including me predicted a Clinton victory in 2016.  However, I thought people were too confident in assuming a victory and guessing 350+ electoral votes even though the late polls were suggesting that Trump had a decent shot. I am not falling for that.  Harris  has a very good chance to win, but I am not really confident.    

[Motown Bombers]

Just a reminder that Clinton only lost Florida by 1.

 

[LaceyLou]

I'm getting the opposite of unicorns, puppies and rainbows via email, from various fundraising sites. I haven't donated because I have no idea which, if any of them, are legit-also don't want even more emails than I'm already getting. 

[Motown Bombers]

Democrats sending doom emails is nothing new. They do more to hurt themselves than help.