LaceyLou Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: Democrats sending doom emails is nothing new. They do more to hurt themselves than help. I agree. And yet.... they keep doing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted Sunday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:36 PM This is clearly a bribe and clearly illegal. He cannot be allowed to get away with his and actually buy votes with dollars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted Sunday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:37 PM 2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Democrats sending doom emails is nothing new. They do more to hurt themselves than help. You should probably contact them and let them know that's what they're doing. Try inquiries@democrats.org, that should probably get there. Or leave them a suggestion at https://democrats.org/contact-us/. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM 2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: This is clearly a bribe and clearly illegal. He cannot be allowed to get away with his and actually buy votes with dollars. Money is speech. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM (edited) 34 minutes ago, LaceyLou said: I'm getting the opposite of unicorns, puppies and rainbows via email, from various fundraising sites. I haven't donated because I have no idea which, if any of them, are legit-also don't want even more emails than I'm already getting. Act Blue is the general Dem fundraising site. Pelosi runs the Congressional campaign office. If you have a particular congressional race in mind, go straight to the candidate's website. Edited Sunday at 04:54 PM by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaceyLou Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM 28 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: This is clearly a bribe and clearly illegal. He cannot be allowed to get away with his and actually buy votes with dollars. And yet.... recent history tells us that he absolutely will get away with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted Sunday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:15 PM 34 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: This is clearly a bribe and clearly illegal. He cannot be allowed to get away with his and actually buy votes with dollars. meh - he buying signatures, not votes. If the Democratic voters of PA are on their game, they'll provide lots of signatures and scam the scammer. Sure it's a pain to be on one more mailing list, but winning Musk's money and then giving to the other side would be worth it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Sunday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:16 PM 39 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: This is clearly a bribe and clearly illegal. He cannot be allowed to get away with his and actually buy votes with dollars. Nothing will happen to him. He is testing to see how much they will accept the Great American Oligarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted Sunday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:05 PM 2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: Just a reminder that Clinton only lost Florida by 1. And then a **** load right wingers from blue states moved here in 2021-2022 to get away from COVID restrictions and Desantis increased his margin of victory from 0.4% in 2018 to 19% in 2022. And the standard caveats about using early voter party ID to extrapolate that you have routinely dismissed apply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM I also caution against using Party ID for anything in a closed primary state where party identification can be bourn out of pragmatism more than anything. I change mine every primary season just so I can vote in the most competitive elections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM 1 minute ago, Edman85 said: And then a **** load right wingers from blue states moved here in 2021-2022 to get away from COVID restrictions and Desantis increased his margin of victory from 0.4% in 2018 to 19% in 2022. And the standard caveats about using early voter party ID to extrapolate that you have routinely dismissed apply. You seem to dismiss the fact that Florida canceled the party registration of about 1 million Democrats, so those NPA are likely majority Democrats. Harris is investing a lot in Florida. She wouldn't be doing that if it wasn't competitive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Sunday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:10 PM Just now, Edman85 said: I also caution against using Party ID for anything in a closed primary state where party identification can be bourn out of pragmatism more than anything. I change mine every primary season just so I can vote in the most competitive elections. My model adjusts for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Sunday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:36 PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM (edited) 1 hour ago, Edman85 said: And then a **** load right wingers from blue states moved here in 2021-2022 to get away from COVID restrictions Not clear that many more people than normal went to FLA immediately post COVID. Population growth has been pretty steady. There was some variance around COVID - it appears COVID kept kept some people in place that would have moved and then did move when things got back to 'normal', but it would be hard to argue overall movement into FLA was out of the ordinary in more than a minor way compared to pre-covid levels. the number one state that people leave to go to FLA is apparently NY. That's probably true most years. The interesting question is whether the middle boomer retirees going to FLA now are any more or less red than the early and pre-boomer retirees already there. My experience as a middle boomer would be that our older sibs were more conservative than we were, but that's one anecdotal take. Also interesting that half a million fewer votes were cast in the governor's race in 22 compared to 18 and DeSantis pickup up another half million. Crist certainly underperformed. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/states/florida/population Edited Sunday at 07:56 PM by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted Sunday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:34 PM 57 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: HE’S SO RELATABLE HE’S JUST LIKE US!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM (edited) JD Vance should drive through and ask him how long he's been working there. Edited Sunday at 09:20 PM by Tiger337 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted Sunday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:03 PM I did a half marathon today and one of the signs said “run like JD Vance is chasing you” 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted Sunday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:24 PM Fully anecdotal. My dad lifelong GOP, lives in west Michigan among some MAGA dopes, says he thinks this will be a blowout for Harris. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted Sunday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:29 PM Is he doing Mad Libs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted Sunday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:16 PM (edited) I saw a clip of the customer driving by the drive through window. It was so obviously staged. Edited Sunday at 11:16 PM by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted Sunday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:49 PM When I read poll discussions among the experts it reminds me of theological debates among preachers and other kinds of clergy and researchers. They’re going on about something translated from a stone 3,000 years ago. Some have an agenda to pursue or a bias they are working from and others do not. But everyone is making some kind of subjective calculation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM (edited) 1 hour ago, oblong said: When I read poll discussions among the experts it reminds me of theological debates among preachers and other kinds of clergy and researchers. They’re going on about something translated from a stone 3,000 years ago. Some have an agenda to pursue or a bias they are working from and others do not. But everyone is making some kind of subjective calculation. Yup. Because there is currently no survey/sampling method available in the US that give a reasonable certainty of obtaining a random sample, pollsters have to make adjustments to their survey results to fit what they think they already 'know' about the population from past experience. However if there is change in the population with respect to those assumptions, the process of correlating the sample to the state of the population in the past guarantees that change actually seen will be assigned as sampling error and go undiagnosed. They can do a lot of massaging but in the end you can't completely correlate your way around this problem. In an environment were random sampling ranges from difficult to impossible, political polling is likely to work well as long as society is basically stable, but accuracy will be more a matter of luck if there are movements upsetting the established political alignments, which you only find out is true or not after the election. The working assumption since at least 2016 is that the distribution of political opinion across varies markers in the population is tightly fixed. If that remains true, the polls will be accurate - at least those taken by honest pollsters. But if you suspect old assumptions may be breaking down, you won't be surprised to see the polls miss things by more then their supposed margins of error. Edited yesterday at 01:33 AM by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted yesterday at 02:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:13 AM One thing I can say, in my lifetime, and probably never in the history of the republic, has an ex-president thrown himself into a presidential campaign the way Obama has for Harris. He waited to the end to do it, but no question he's all in now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted yesterday at 02:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:51 AM 36 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: One thing I can say, in my lifetime, and probably never in the history of the republic, has an ex-president thrown himself into a presidential campaign the way Obama has for Harris. He waited to the end to do it, but no question he's all in now. He is still a powerful speaker too. He hasn't lost much there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted yesterday at 05:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:25 AM 8 hours ago, romad1 said: Fully anecdotal. My dad lifelong GOP, lives in west Michigan among some MAGA dopes, says he thinks this will be a blowout for Harris. Is he voting for Harris? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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