2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

 

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

That was indeed good. I listened this morning.

 

Which brings me to this tangential point. The NYTimes Audio paywall has not seemed to hit Pocketcasts yet.

the only place I might go a little further than Ezra is in stressing harder that the continuing decay of his inhibition is very likely associated with an ongoing process of frontal lobe function loss.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

all you can say is that if this is true, the mismatch between their surveying and the elections poll surveys is nothing short of massive because if Trump losses 25% of Haley's vote I see no way the election is actually close.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

all you can say is that if this is true, the mismatch between their surveying and the elections poll surveys is nothing short of massive because if Trump losses 25% of Haley's vote I see no way the election is actually close.

I think pollsters are terrified of predicting a big Harris win, and I think there is a bit of herding going on. 

[Hongbit]

 

[smr-nj]

I have seen a LOT of Harris signs in my area this election season.  Some trump signs, but waaaay fewer than 4 years ago. (& hardly ever saw Biden signs 4years ago. 
 

This particular Harris sign message , though, is my favorite. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

I have seen a LOT of Harris signs in my area this election season.  Some trump signs, but waaaay fewer than 4 years ago. (& hardly ever saw Biden signs 4years ago. 
 

This particular Harris sign message , though, is my favorite. 

I noticed some Trump signs driving through the metro Detroit area this weekend.  I saw a lot of Harris signs everywhere too.  The confidence of the Harris signage was similar to the above.  

Feeling fairly confident based on body language of the two candidates and campaigns.  

 

[romad1]

Overheard Canadian kids in Windsor talking about Trump like a mental patient.  “You aren’t wrong fellas”

[Motown Bombers]

 

[HighOPS]

Probably not worth much because it's harder for Americans to see and bet than in past elections but Paddy Power had Harris almost sure to win the popular vote $50 wins $19 but Trump favored to win the election.

[HighOPS]

It is nice to take a week or two days away from US news in even year Octobers though. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I think pollsters are terrified of predicting a big Harris win, and I think there is a bit of herding going on. 

Why would they be terrified?  If they were confident in a Harris landslide, they would want to predict it so they could bask in the glory when they got it right.  

[Tiger337]

20 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I do remember that confidence in 2012, but Republicans always talk confidently about their chances.  

[Edman85]

Silver had Obama >90 % in 2012. I can't find his precise model and the polling input, but I can guarantee this year and 2012 aren't similar from a polling standpoint.

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Why would they be terrified?  If they were confident in a Harris landslide, they would want to predict it so they could bask in the glory when they got it right.  

I suppose in part because Trump being Trump, if he wins after a big poll miss they are afraid he'll find some way to target the pollsters. Or maybe, and I think this is more likely, the pollsters themselves are very uncertain of their data, so the best hedge is to keep adjusting the models to keep it near enough to even that a win will be within margin of error no matter which way it goes. 

Edited 1 hour ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

8 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Silver had Obama >90 % in 2012. I can't find his precise model and the polling input, but I can guarantee this year and 2012 aren't similar from a polling standpoint.

RCP had Obama at +0.7 in the polls and that was before the right started manipulating the averages with bogus polls. Frankly, the polling from legit pollsters was worse for Obama than Harris. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Motown Bombers

[oblong]

21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Why would they be terrified?  If they were confident in a Harris landslide, they would want to predict it so they could bask in the glory when they got it right.  

I can't square that either. What good does it to them to be "wrong" even if that was their intent for whatever reason, either to be overly cautious or b/c they were paid to say something different.  Is falling back on the margin of error enough of an incentive to not worry about.

If PAC goes to a polling firm with explicit instructions to convey a certain outcome, then why would the poll even bothering conducting it? Just make up the responses and don't bother contacting anybody.  If the election were not as close as the pollsters suggest then why would Harris be all over the swing states?

 

[Motown Bombers]

11 minutes ago, oblong said:

I can't square that either. What good does it to them to be "wrong" even if that was their intent for whatever reason, either to be overly cautious or b/c they were paid to say something different.  Is falling back on the margin of error enough of an incentive to not worry about.

If PAC goes to a polling firm with explicit instructions to convey a certain outcome, then why would the poll even bothering conducting it? Just make up the responses and don't bother contacting anybody.  If the election were not as close as the pollsters suggest then why would Harris be all over the swing states?

 

She’s going to Texas. Pollsters don’t want to be the one to underestimate Trump and are herding to the results of every other poll. I can’t see how down ballot Dems lead in every swing state, minus Georgia, and yet Trump could win them all. I would like to meet the Trump-Slotkin voter. 

[oblong]

25 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

She’s going to Texas. Pollsters don’t want to be the one to underestimate Trump and are herding to the results of every other poll. I can’t see how down ballot Dems lead in every swing state, minus Georgia, and yet Trump could win them all. I would like to meet the Trump-Slotkin voter. 

My gut tells me you are correct but that’s not based on any data. Just what I see in terms of enthusiasm and all that.  But I had those feelings in 2012 thinking Romney would win. I don’t trust myself.  At game 4 of the ALDS, I’m not making this up, my friend texted me in the 7th asking if I was there.  When I said yes he told me he thought they would do it. I replied “me too” and not a minute later Frye hit a 2 run HR. I don’t like it when I think something is going to turn out. I’m usually wrong. 

[mtutiger]

JHC