The Ronz Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 56 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I would like to meet the Trump-Slotkin voter. I knew many Trump-Slotkin voters. I say knew because they are all straight Republican ticket voters now. They want Trump's agenda carried out without question and have come to the understanding - after him running for the third time - that the Republicans need to have the House and Senate as well. What kind of person is this? I asked and here is their answer: Yes, we understand Trump may institute death camps. Yes, we - the Trump voters - may get "get caught up in it is well." The rationalization is that the "others" - blacks, gays, trans, foreigners - whomever the "outgroup" may be - will be put to death at a greater number. This is the thought process that the Trump voters I know use to justifying voting for Trump. It is a cult. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: Underestimating Trump for the third election cycle in a row would be an existential crisis for the industry, particularly as pollsters (as Nate Cohn has documented in various pieces, for instance) have gone to great lengths to try to fix whatever errors they think may or may not have been present. And particularly as response rates and getting representative samples are getting worse and worse. This isn't even getting into the the fact that there is less high quality state polling this year than in previous cycles (once again, well documented)... which stands as evidence on it's own as well. I don't know what will happen, we will have to see how it works out in a couple of weeks, maybe they are bang on.... but I'm not going to ignore the human psychology at play here. So, basically they don't know what's going to happen with enough certainty to declare a winner either way. It's not that they are terrified. They just don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 3 minutes ago, The Ronz said: I knew many Trump-Slotkin voters. I say knew because they are all straight Republican ticket voters now. They want Trump's agenda carried out without question and have come to the understanding - after him running for the third time - that the Republicans need to have the House and Senate as well. What kind of person is this? I asked and here is their answer: Yes, we understand Trump may institute death camps. Yes, we - the Trump voters - may get "get caught up in it is well." The rationalization is that the "others" - blacks, gays, trans, foreigners - whomever the "outgroup" may be - will be put to death at a greater number. This is the thought process that the Trump voters I know use to justifying voting for Trump. It is a cult. But that's not a Trump-Slotkin voter. That's Trump-Rogers if they feel he needs a Republican senate and are straight Republican voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, oblong said: What good does it to them to be "wrong" even if that was their intent for whatever reason, either to be overly cautious or b/c they were paid to say something different. Is falling back on the margin of error enough of an incentive to not worry about. It's hard to figure, but Tom Bonior has posted enough analysis showing that some pollsters are definitely putting their thumbs on the scale that it's hard to argue it isn't happening. I have a hard time seeing the 'why' as well. I think what is confusing is that we need to realize that at this point the two campaigns have opposite agendas for their polling and if you accept that, what we're seeing can at least be fit into a more rational framework. For Trump, the perception of strength, inevitability, validation of his alternate reality, is vital to preserve and that whole edifice requires constant reinforcement, so Trump is going to demand polls that show him leading regardless of whether it's true or not, and if you are willing to pay, you can get someone to cook up the results you want. OTOH, the Dems narrative for this election is as the underdog and turnout is the imperative. They have decided that getting pedal to the metal commitment is best served by making sure there is no tendency to get out in front of their skis. For them, if their internals are behind, they have no particular need to add to the gloom, and if they are ahead, they still don't feel too much need to take on the close race narrative coming from polls other than a few voices like Bonior. Edited October 22 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 From my neighborhood walk today. 1 Trump flag vs 1 Harris flag. 2 Trump signs (one goes with the Trump flag which technically violates HOA rules on political signs. And one Anti-Trump sign which is my favorite, it's been out for a while now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: So, basically they don't know what's going to happen with enough certainty to declare a winner either way. It's not that they are terrified. They just don't know. and if you don't know, 'tossup race' is your least controversial forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It's hard to figure, but Tom Bonior has posted enough analysis showing that some pollsters are definitely putting their thumbs on the scale that it's hard to argue it isn't happening. I have a hard time seeing the 'why' as well. I think what is confusing is that we need to realize that at this point the two campaigns have opposite agendas for their polling and if you accept that, what we're seeing can at least be fit into a more rational framework. For Trump, the perception of strength, inevitability, validation of his alternate reality, is vital to preserve and that whole edifice requires constant reinforcement, so Trump is going to demand polls that show him leading regardless of whether it's true or not, and if you are willing to pay, you can get someone to cook up the results you want. OTOH, the Dems narrative for this election is as the underdog and turnout is the imperative. They have decided that getting pedal to the metal commitment is best served by making sure there is no tendency to get out in front of their ski's. For them, if their internals are behind, they have no particular need to add to the gloom, and if they are ahead, they still don't feel too much need to take on the close race narrative coming from polls other than a few voices like Bonior. Those aren't real polls though. If that's what ALL the pollsters are doing, then it's all bull****. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: But that's not a Trump-Slotkin voter. That's Trump-Rogers if they feel he needs a Republican senate and are straight Republican voters. He's the one that lives around all the Nazis, right? Are the subdivisions in Macomb County all designed like swastikas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Those aren't real polls though. If that's what ALL the pollsters are doing, then it's all bull****. This reminds me of the book I'm currently reading "Nexus" (Yuval Harari). One of his primary premises is that we have to get over the fallacy that good information has any tendency to 'float to the top' or drive our bad as is commonly assumed, it won't and it doesn't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 (edited) 10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: and if you don't know, 'tossup race' is your least controversial forecast. This is exactly right... Obviously it was a campy conspiracy theory movie from the 1970s, but Capricorn One (with Hal Holbrook as the NASA Administrator who orders the moon landing to be faked and James Brolin, Sam Waterston and OJ Simpson as the astronauts) comes to mind. The one thing that isn't a conspiracy from that movie is that people who have made a career doing something who watch said industry face challenges or even possible oblivion will go to great lengths to protect their existence. This situation isn't that per se, but people will look out for their self interests. And not underestimating Trump a third time is a big thing in this case Edited October 22 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Just now, Motor City Sonics said: He's the one that lives around all the Nazis, right? Are the subdivisions in Macomb County all designed like swastikas? As a Macomb County resident, my city was Biden +10 and my neighborhood contains a mix of blacks, Muslims and Eastern European immigrants. The klan rallies he must go to have to be north of here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Those aren't real polls though. If that's what ALL the pollsters are doing, then it's all bull****. Those fake polls do get added to most of the aggregates though, and then circulated throughout social media. And in an environment where, again, there has been less high quality polling than ever, that matters a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 With Nevada trending toward Trump, a 270-268 Harris win is in play... Which means we are a faithless elector away from chaos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Nevada isn't trending to Trump. We go through this every two years with Nevada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: Nevada isn't trending to Trump. We go through this every two years with Nevada. Really it's all MOE stuff anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 I'm supposed to believe that Jackie Rosen has such a large lead that the Republicans pulled the plug on the senate race; Dems are so confident in the house races they pulled funding; but Trump is going to carry the state? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Nevada isn't trending to Trump. We go through this every two years with Nevada. Silver's polling average. There is certainly convergence. This is 2020 for comparison: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 2 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Silver's polling average. There is certainly convergence. This is 2020 for comparison: Once again, junk right wing polls. Fabrizio is literally a Mike Flynn outfit. Never underestimate the Culinary and the Harry Reid machine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 It's also possible Harris is trying to pick off Texas or Florida on a hail mary in case there is systematic rust belt polling error in Trump's favor for the third time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ronz Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: But that's not a Trump-Slotkin voter. That's Trump-Rogers if they feel he needs a Republican senate and are straight Republican voters. They were Trump-Slotkin voters in 2020. They are now - as you said - Trump-Rogers voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 5 minutes ago, Edman85 said: It's also possible Harris is trying to pick off Texas or Florida on a hail mary in case there is systematic rust belt polling error in Trump's favor for the third time. If that were the case, she would go to Florida where she has a pretty robust ground operation. Texas has changed a lot since 2020 and they may believe Allred has a very good shot at beating Cruz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Just now, The Ronz said: They were Trump-Slotkin voters in 2020. They are now - as you said - Trump-Rogers voters. What I mean is, who is the voter that is going to vote for Trump-Slotkin in 2024? R internals have her up 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 6 minutes ago, The Ronz said: They were Trump-Slotkin voters in 2020. They are now - as you said - Trump-Rogers voters. I guess I'm missing something. Slotkin wasn't on a state-wide ballot in 2020. This is an open seat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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