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2024 Presidential Election thread


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45 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Silver's polling average. There is certainly convergence.

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This is 2020 for comparison:

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Going back to the MOE point, everything is extremely tight across *all* 7 states. To the point where polling across all 7 at this point in time could have a historic level of accuracy and still result in either Kamala or Trump sweeping. (Either case is more probable than 270-268, even)

Just think the usefulness of all of these models begins to have issues when all of these states are so tight. And when the lack of quality polling is present such that we have

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16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Going back to the MOE point, everything is extremely tight across *all* 7 states. To the point where polling across all 7 at this point in time could have a historic level of accuracy and still result in either Kamala or Trump sweeping. (Either case is more probable than 270-268, even)

Just think the usefulness of all of these models begins to have issues when all of these states are so tight. And when the lack of quality polling is present such that we have

Agree, but i think that uncertainty is why they are showing 50/50

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3 hours ago, The Ronz said:

correct, but we never saw what her statewide numbers would have been against a GOP candidate. Even If there are people in her old district that  decided they like her and will vote for her and Trump that still doesn't tell us that much about why she should be that far ahead statewide. One Congressional district is only about 7% of the State.

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I've been wondering about the TX-15 thing for a while, particularly given that she's, at best, going to finish around 2020 Biden numbers in all likelihood with Hispanics.

Not the first time they've talked about this district, curious what they see in it.

Edited by mtutiger
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Texas is the one state I fear shenanigans if if looks like she will win it.  Abbot will send in the national guard and try to get them to seize ballots on election night.  There’s no way he will let it go blue. They will find some judges to let them do what they want. 

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2 minutes ago, oblong said:

Texas is the one state I fear shenanigans if if looks like she will win it.  Abbot will send in the national guard and try to get them to seize ballots on election night.  There’s no way he will let it go blue. They will find some judges to let them do what they want. 

Yep. For pre-election interference and disenfranchisement, I worry about Georgia. But that damage is largely done.

But actual straight faced **** you election theft? That screams Texas. Abbott will order election workers to stop counting in El Paso County (likely +300k for Harris), claiming without proof that there are tens of thousands of illegals voting there. Thus starts the extended legal battle and grass roots effort to delegitimize the whole thing.

On the bright side, if it’s close enough in Texas that they have to cheat, she probably won’t need Texas.

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26 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Yep. For pre-election interference and disenfranchisement, I worry about Georgia. But that damage is largely done.

The Georgia Supreme Court ruling this morning blocking the new rules from the State Election Board would suggest reduced risk of shenanigans

Edited by mtutiger
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