romad1 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 (edited) 29 minutes ago, chasfh said: The ultimate end goal of the work camps in Germany was to work the inmates to death, and then replace them on the fly with newly-captured inmates. You're young enough where they could probably get a few weeks or months out of you, but I'm too old to work anymore, so I'm gone in the first wave. Although you, personally, probably know too much so you might expire with me. I'd prefer not to go down this road. The idea that we are legitimately considering the death camps Trump has planned for us...yikes. I play a lot of casual war games and most of those simulate to some extent WWII. What they NEVER can simulate with any rationality is the effect of the Holocaust on the Nazi war effort because how could there be rules for a nation diverting its rail stocks and significant manpower to the purpose of slaughtering its own population. They also fail to simulate that there could even be . . . benefit to the overall war effort to having motivated workers who do not want to be starved and slaughtered. There is a reason the Allies swamped the Axis and for example the British were able to rapidly replenish their RAF units during the Battle of Britain...the entire island was on a maximum effort war footing. Maximum effort meant exactly that and people didn't even know about the Holocaust then. l also consider that many war gamers are cosplaying their autocratic fantasies about how Rommel or Guderian or (worse still) Sepp Dietrich could have pulled "it" off if Hitler left them to their own devices and they just don't want to think about the cost to the war effort of the German side of that monstrous wastage of resources and lives. Edited October 24 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 (edited) 3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: This is the opposite of 2016. In 2016, these congressional level polls around this time were red flags for Clinton. Now, they are red flags for Trump. well, you can postulate that what we see in a district poll is unfiltered, un-re-biased sampling. I've been reading Cohn's columns in the NYT right along and with every one he writes it becomes more clear that the uncertainty in the sample adjustments is so large that the polls really are almost worthless - the true margin of error is probably more like 10%. In fact he even had a chart showing that just the choice of the so called 'recall vote' treatment produced a 10% swing in the outcome in some of the samples he tested it against on. Some polls are going to get it right, and they will pat them selves hard on the back hard, but it will have been pure random chance Edited October 24 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 3 hours ago, romad1 said: i’m not over this No one should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 A bit old, but the data does show how difficult a lift MI is for DJT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 8 minutes ago, romad1 said: I'd prefer not to go down this road. The idea that we are legitimately considering the death camps Trump has planned for us...yikes. I play a lot of casual war games and most of those simulate to some extent WWII. What they NEVER can simulate with any rationality is the effect of the Holocaust on the Nazi war effort because how could there be rules for a nation diverting its rail stocks and significant manpower to the purpose of slaughtering its own population. They also fail to simulate that there could even be . . . benefit to the overall war effort to having motivated workers who do not want to be starved and slaughtered. There is a reason the Allies swamped the Axis and for example the British were able to rapidly replenish their RAF units during the Battle of Britain...the entire island was on a maximum effort war footing. Maximum effort meant exactly that and people didn't even know about the Holocaust then. l also consider that man war gamers are cosplaying their autocratic fantasies about how Rommel or Guderian or (worse still) Sepp Dietrich could have pulled "it" off if Hitler left them to their own devices and they just don't want to think about the cost to the war effort of the German side of that monstrous wastage of resources and lives. If Trump is going to praise Hitler, how is Trump not going to emulate him, and not take it all the way? Power over the lives and deaths of an entire nation of people is the ultimate power trip. It's exactly what Trump admires about Kim Jong Un! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 5 minutes ago, mtutiger said: A bit old, but the data does show how difficult a lift MI is for DJT Trump needs to ratchet up his attacks on Detroit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 I really wish we could go back to the MTS archives so I can see all the things I posted back in November 2016 about all the things I feared Trump might do as president, posts that were lambasted and dismissed as "Alarmist Non-sense", and compare them to what everyone else inside and outside MTF is saying today what they fear Trump will do, and see what my hit rate is. It's got to be over 50%. Maybe way over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 3 hours ago, CMRivdogs said: It’s simple, under M-A you’re screwed LOL - ain't it the truth! I understand all the downside efficiency risks in nationalizing health care but you only have to spend a year on the target end of Medicare Advantage 'outreach' (read: "advertising") and the service approval process to understand the money being wasted in insurance company overhead. Those dollars, if actually applied to people's health, would probably drive US life expectancy back to the top of the list. We spent some time in Australia a few years ago and they have a hybrid system and from what I could tell is seemed to work very well and was very easy to access. IDK, maybe it had its problems also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: I mean, internal Republican polling has Trump only +3 in Texas. Trump was only +5 in Texas in 2020. The state has been moving left for some time now. Meanwhile, polling in New York has Harris +20, and in 2020, Biden won California by 5 million votes. Dems can win Tx if they could ever get out the vote. They have the supporters, just not the voters. Odd, but it is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: I really wish we could go back to the MTS archives so I can see all the things I posted back in November 2016 about all the things I feared Trump might do as president, posts that were lambasted and dismissed as "Alarmist Non-sense", and compare them to what everyone else inside and outside MTF is saying today what they fear Trump will do, and see what my hit rate is. It's got to be over 50%. Maybe way over. I believed to my core that Romney was going to win in 2012 because of what I had been told by "credible" RW media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Apparently the Washington Post is not endorsing. WTF? I'll drop that rag if they don't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 6 minutes ago, chasfh said: I really wish we could go back to the MTS archives so I can see all the things I posted back in November 2016 about all the things I feared Trump might do as president, posts that were lambasted and dismissed as "Alarmist Non-sense", and compare them to what everyone else inside and outside MTF is saying today what they fear Trump will do, and see what my hit rate is. It's got to be over 50%. Maybe way over. People don't want to admit it (particularly in media), but resistance types have been right a lot over the past eight years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 2 hours ago, LaceyLou said: It could be that they are also trying to get out the vote for candidates for the House and Senate. Both candidates will have an easier time if at least one is controlled by their own party. Yup. GOP really needs to hold their NY Congressional seats seats to keep a majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Dems can win Tx if they could ever get out the vote. They have the supporters, just not the voters. Odd, but it is what it is. Turnout in the big blue counties has been record setting so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 18 minutes ago, mtutiger said: A bit old, but the data does show how difficult a lift MI is for DJT 2-3 weeks ago seems like a lifetime in politics now. If this were more recent data I might be able to feel a little bit better about it. I try not to be so pessimistic, but it's hard not to be. I do genuinely wonder if polls are undercounting Harris support this time around and have overcorrected to account for their mistakes from 2016 and 2020. I just don't know that I feel 100% confident in that idea. Well being up is certainly better than being down in a poll, using an older poll like this doesn't make me feel much confidence. 😞 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaceyLou Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 5 minutes ago, romad1 said: Apparently the Washington Post is not endorsing. WTF? I'll drop that rag if they don't. Earlier today I saw a report (is it weird from the WP?) that editors of the LA Times resigned after owners blocked their endorsement of Harris. Is it possible that Bezos is doing the same thing? I'm wondering if and how we can work to rebuild the 4th estate, consisting of media not owned by multi-billionaires and/or RW groups. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: 2-3 weeks ago seems like a lifetime in politics now. If this were more recent data I might be able to feel a little bit better about it. I try not to be so pessimistic, but it's hard not to be. I do genuinely wonder if polls are undercounting Harris support this time around and have overcorrected to account for their mistakes from 2016 and 2020. I just don't know that I feel 100% confident in that idea. Well being up is certainly better than being down in a poll, using an older poll like this doesn't make me feel much confidence. 😞 I share your concerns, but MSU is arguably the most credible pollster from a reputation standpoint to poll Michigan in quite a while. Also the guy who runs it (Matt Grossman) is pretty clear eyed and impartial. I do stand by what I said above though.... the political geography for Trump, even with the concerns about the Arab population in Michigan, really isn't that great. He lost the state by 150,000 votes last time and it's very likely that Oakland, Kent, Ottawa, etc. are going to shift left in this cycle. And with Detroit potentially *exceeding* 2020 turnout (very possible), it's very tough sledding. Edited October 24 by mtutiger 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 2 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I share your concerns, but MSU is arguably the most credible pollster from a reputation standpoint to poll Michigan in quite a while. Also the guy who runs it (Matt Grossman) is pretty clear eyed and impartial. I do stand by what I said above though.... the political geography for Trump, even with the concerns about the Arab population in Michigan, really isn't that great. He lost the state by 150,000 votes last time and it's very likely that Oakland, Kent, Ottawa, etc. are going to shift left in this cycle. And with Detroit potentially *exceeding* 2020 turnout (very possible), it's very tough sledding. I could also see smaller rural counties moving left like Grand Traverse, Emmet and Charlevoix. She may even cut into the margin in Livingston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 3 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said: Remember when people complained that fast food workers were under paid so they demanded raises? Personal note I do volunteer work at one of the areas top tourist employers. They've cut the number of paid employees in the customer service area. Put in ticket kiosks, promoted on line sales, etc. then expect us non paid people to fill in the cracks. We do get some nice perks (discounts). It's been a good place to volunteer otherwise but They're doing away with free parking for visitors next week (just in time for Christmas) guess who gets to take most of the **** from visitors about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 5 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I do stand by what I said above though.... the political geography for Trump, even with the concerns about the Arab population in Michigan, really isn't that great. He lost the state by 150,000 votes last time and it's very likely that Oakland, Kent, Ottawa, etc. are going to shift left in this cycle. And with Detroit potentially *exceeding* 2020 turnout (very possible), it's very tough sledding. Parts of Macomb and Downriver communities, where there are lots of non-college educated white voters, may continue to drift rightward though. Democrats can't become the party of only college educated people, we'll never win that way. We need a big tent with working class and non-college educated voters, folks with only some college or a HS degree. So there is a chance as Macomb and Downriver communities drift rightward that it negates or overcomes our advantage in places like Oakland and Kent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Parts of Macomb and Downriver communities, where there are lots of non-college educated white voters, may continue to drift rightward though. Democrats can't become the party of only college educated people, we'll never win that way. We need a big tent with working class and non-college educated voters, folks with only some college or a HS degree. So there is a chance as Macomb and Downriver communities drift rightward that it negates or overcomes our advantage in places like Oakland and Kent. Macomb will stay pretty static. Southern Macomb continues to see an influx of blacks and Eastern European immigrants. The Arabs in Sterling Heights don’t seem as obsessed over Palestine as Dearborn. North of Hall Road is Trump country and they aren’t poor working class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 11 minutes ago, LaceyLou said: Earlier today I saw a report (is it weird from the WP?) that editors of the LA Times resigned after owners blocked their endorsement of Harris. Is it possible that Bezos is doing the same thing? I'm wondering if and how we can work to rebuild the 4th estate, consisting of media not owned by multi-billionaires and/or RW groups. I'm putting my $$ on smaller non profit news organizations. Watch what your local PBS station is doing (or not doing). I've been surprised by organizations like AXIOS, especially with their small local newsrooms. There are a couple of small local on line publications who are attempting to take the place of newspapers who have been decimated or completely shuttered by corporate raiders. I don't know the future, they all may go the way of the do do or small market radio and newspapers. But one could hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I could also see smaller rural counties moving left like Grand Traverse, Emmet and Charlevoix. She may even cut into the margin in Livingston. There are a few things that make MI naturally tougher than PA/WI, but the one that gets slept on is just the amount of mid-sized cities the state has. Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Muskegon, Saginaw, Flint, Lansing. Particularly in WI, there just isn't the same sort of dichotomy. Obviously he can win, 2016 demonstrated that and close polling shouldn't make anyone complacent.... but even with the issues with the Arab community (people who know better have continually ignored the larger demographics of the state in pursuit of the story, frankly), this state is the toughest of the seven. It always has been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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