pfife Posted October 25 Author Share Posted October 25 3 hours ago, romad1 said: Apparently the Washington Post is not endorsing. WTF? I'll drop that rag if they don't. same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 The Mayor of OKC is voting for Harris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 The Nevada numbers being provided by Jon Rolston don't look good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 What the actual 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Is this real or some BS story? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 3 hours ago, chasfh said: Thank you for your service. I would bet people running for office are far more interested in the number of dollars being donated over the number of donors donating them. More money is always good, but more donors = more enthusiasm. There's a reason whenever they release their numbers they often mention how much came from small dollar donors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 4 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: Interesting zip code map of individual donors. Macomb County is blue all the way through Sterling Heights. Dearborn still remains blue. Even in some of the rurals not a large disparity in Trump donors. See how your neighborhood is giving to Harris and Trump - Washington Post The Upper Midwest (Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota) is surprisingly blue, even in some of the red areas and areas where Trump has excelled electorally since coming down the escalator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: The Nevada numbers being provided by Jon Rolston don't look good. Ralston's analysis is spot on - although I do imagine, as he suggests, that Clark/Washoe mail will catch up and Dems/Rs will end up close at the end of early voting. Just because of the rise of non-party voters in Nevada, if I had to guess, it'll come down to who wins that particular group in the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 7 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Ralston's analysis is spot on - although I do imagine, as he suggests, that Clark/Washoe mail will catch up and Dems/Rs will end up close at the end of early voting. Just because of the rise of non-party voters in Nevada, if I had to guess, it'll come down to who wins that particular group in the state. and everyone is still guessing. Early voting is too new and too much in flux in too many states to have established patterns, especially when the last presidential election took place in a once a century black swan setting. The whole polling/EV exercise this year continues to strike me as a bunch of otherwise smart guys trying to figure out a way to solve for N variables with N-1 equations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 (edited) The other piece of context that needs to be considered with early voting (and probably why, outside of Nevada and Ralston, it's dangerous to read too far into it unless you do this stuff for a living), is that turnout methods are changing; R's have embraced early voting methods more versus 2020 and 2022, which is resulting in people who previously voted *on* EDay to be captured in early voting this time around. Ralston's blog mentions it happening in NV, but it's also happening to varying degrees in the other states, particularly in PA, NC and GA (with white voters; GA doesn't have party registration but white voters are used as somewhat of a proxy for Rs) The result of this is that it changes the dynamic or expectations of why EDay is like.... and makes comparing what happened in 2020 or (to a lesser extent) 2022 more of a fools errand. Edited October 25 by mtutiger 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: and everyone is still guessing. Early voting is too new and too much in flux in too many states to have established patterns, especially when the last presidential election took place in a once a century black swan setting. The whole polling/EV exercise this year continues to strike me as a bunch of otherwise smart guys trying to figure out a way to solve for N variables with N-1 equations. It's a little more established in Nevada just because they've been voting my mail and early for so long, to be fair.... but the 2020 factor matters a lot. It was just a very different election that's hard to compare against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 (edited) The changes in registration patterns is another factor. Dems used to out register Repub but then voted in lower numbers. Now it's more chic for the college educated to claim independent status even though they becoming more reliably blueas voters, and since the college educated also turn out more reliably, that shifts turnout outcomes on the blue side. So all of these trends are in motion simultaneously in addition to the attitude (and availability to consider places beyond NV) changes in early voting. Edited October 25 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 8 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Is this real or some BS story? It's Krassenstein so probably BS. I really do wish there was a way to mute/block accounts in here I have muted/blocked on Twitter. Remember again. Blue checkmarks these days means they are paid for impressions not truth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 15 hours ago, romad1 said: Apparently the Washington Post is not endorsing. WTF? I'll drop that rag if they don't. I have always found Newspaper endorsements to be meaningless and self-important. Good on them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Yes, I thnk that Trump has probably sexually assaulted many women, but posters like Krassenstein are not believable and only weaken the case against Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 I'm good with the Newspaper representing and reporting to the Federal government's workforce and the millions of people who work with that leviathan having an opinion on what would be the best outcome in November for the health of the country. I'm not good with its owner thinking he play footsie with Russian oligarchs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 25 Author Share Posted October 25 (edited) If an editorial board cant make the obviously right judgment, why should I pay them for said judgment prowess? Edited October 25 by pfife 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 I wonder if the Washington Posts condones this sort of behavior. Trump says Jack Smith should be 'thrown out of the country' (thehill.com) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 25 Author Share Posted October 25 Ill sign up for RocketMoney to cancel that subscription STAT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 11 hours ago, mtutiger said: The Mayor of OKC is voting for Harris This is a good October surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 53 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: For what it's worth, the poll was 48-48, obviously not a great result for Harris. Although the overall picture of the electorate they paint (older, whiter versus 2020, lower turnout) has been pretty consistent throughout this cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 11 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: The Nevada numbers being provided by Jon Rolston don't look good. Not on the roller coaster, so, not paying attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: For what it's worth, the poll was 48-48, obviously not a great result for Harris. Although the overall picture of the electorate they paint (older, whiter versus 2020, lower turnout) has been pretty consistent throughout this cycle. The NYT has been putting out some funky polls this cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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