2024 Presidential Election thread

[mtutiger]

With low propensity "Barstool" types as well, it just demonstrates the weakness of Trump's position insofar that the groups that are commonly seen as places he's gaining (young men, non-white men) are among the lowest propensity voters in the first place. Whereas Harris is commonly seen to be gaining with some of the highest propensity voters (ie. white suburban women, college educated voters, maybe to a lesser extent white non college women)

I sometimes think that gets lost in how the demographics of this election are covered. Again, it doesn't mean he cannot win, but a lot has to go right when your strength goes through lower propensity voter types.

Edited Monday at 03:08 PM by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

For what it's worth, David Plouffe has suggested a couple of times that they aren't seeing a ton of intensity with low-propensity voters like this in their early vote data thus far.

How "low" is the propensity of a low propensity voter defined to be? Just presidential elections, 50% of presidential elections, less than that?

Do I recall correctly that in Michigan your registration lapses if you don't vote at least once every 4 yrs? Or has that changed?

[romad1]

Brownstein summarizes the exit poll at 5pm on election day that will tell him the election is going one way or another.  Is she winning women by more than Trump is winning men.  No [exit poll] issue really matters.  He also quotes a Mike Podohorize(sp?) who reviews Catalyst actual voter data and reports: 

• 91m separate individuals have voted against Trumpism in last 4 elections
• 83m separate individuals have voted for Trumpism in last 4 elections. 

He suggests that people do not want the Indiana National Guard knocking on doors in Chicago to root out immigrants and the degree to which she activates that fear will be key to winning. 

Edited Monday at 03:16 PM by romad1

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

How "low" is the propensity of a low propensity voter defined to be? Just presidential elections, 50% of presidential elections, less than that?

I honestly don't know.... but I suspect it's voters who only show up for a Presidential election or demos that generally don't turn out at high rates (ie. young voters, particularly males)

Edited Monday at 03:18 PM by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I don't think Bezos is scared of retaliation, I think he made a backroom deal for billions

Agree. I think Bezos was trying to play a double game. He spiked the endorsement, but then has allowed his writers to savage his decision in his paper. - in effect simply making a bunch of individual endorsements. His mistake will be believing that Trump will honor any deal he made over an endorsement, esp after the editorial staff all wrote to repudiate it so forcefully.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Very little of this early voting data looks good for Dems. This EV data from Elliott Morris seems to suggest Republicans will have a comfortable margin of victory.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Very little of this early voting data looks good for Dems. This EV data from Elliott Morris seems to suggest Republicans will have a comfortable margin of victory.

Two polls of people who already voted show Harris winning 60-40. This is a non COVID. People act like the Republican turnout on Election Day will be the same as 2020. 

[boilerfan]

On 10/25/2024 at 6:42 PM, 1776 said:

So that’s a crime? That’s just vulgarity and stupidity. 

And an admission of sexual assault.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Two polls of people who already voted show Harris winning 60-40. This is a non COVID. People act like the Republican turnout on Election Day will be the same as 2020. 

Morris is suggesting though that by raw vote numbers, leaving the polls aside, that more Rs have earlier voted AND there is still much more R vote outstanding. If that's true, how do Ds possibly overcome this? Even if non-party affiliates and independent swing voters break there way, Rs already have a lead and still have a cushion because of their voters who still haven't voted yet according to the early voting data provided.

[CMRivdogs]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Agree. I think Bezos was trying to play a double game. He spiked the endorsement, but then has allowed his writers to savage his decision in his paper. - in effect simply making a bunch of individual endorsements. His mistake will be believing that Trump will honor any deal he made over an endorsement, esp after the editorial staff all wrote to repudiate it so forcefully.

I tend to agree. The WP is a small percentage of his holdings. That's the reason I'm seeing some people poo-pooing the cancel the Post subscription movement. It hurts employees more than JB. 

Now if there is an anti-Amazon movement....

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Morris is suggesting though that by raw vote numbers, leaving the polls aside, that more Rs have earlier voted AND there is still much more R vote outstanding. If that's true, how do Ds possibly overcome this? Even if non-party affiliates and independent swing voters break there way, Rs already have a lead and still have a cushion because of their voters who still haven't voted yet according to the early voting data provided.

This, of course, assumes that everyone modeled as an R in early vote is a vote for Trump. (same applies in the other direction as well)

Edited Monday at 03:34 PM by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Morris is suggesting though that by raw vote numbers, leaving the polls aside, that more Rs have earlier voted AND there is still much more R vote outstanding. If that's true, how do Ds possibly overcome this? Even if non-party affiliates and independent swing voters break there way, Rs already have a lead and still have a cushion because of their voters who still haven't voted yet according to the early voting data provided.

No, he’s not suggesting that. More Democrats have voted so far in early voting. Republicans aren’t leading in early voting. He even says in the thread there are fewer votes left to activate as republicans have been converting Election Day votes to early votes. 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This, of course, assumes that everyone modeled as an R in early vote is a vote for Trump. (same applies in the other direction as well)

Yeah I can’t imagine the high female turnout in Michigan are republicans. I question his model on republican voters in Michigan. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

No, he’s not suggesting that. More Democrats have voted so far in early voting. Republicans aren’t leading in early voting. He even says in the thread there are fewer votes left to activate as republicans have been converting Election Day votes to early votes. 

From his thread he's saying most of the remaining swing state voters are modeled for Republicans.

So then, what can we say about the ~16m likely swing-state voters who haven't voted yet? Most of them are Republicans:

Partisan comp:
AZ: 41% are Rs, 29% D
GA: 35%R 41%D
MI: 42%R 44%D
NC: 33%R 29%D
PA: 50%R 39%D
WI: 50%R 28%D

And roughly ~60% of them will probably vote on E-Day

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Very little of this early voting data looks good for Dems. This EV data from Elliott Morris seems to suggest Republicans will have a comfortable margin of victory.

I don't think EV analysis is worth spit because a) in many states EV is too new a system to have settled into any predictable pattern B) Covid makes 2020 a black swan event that is not projectable C) The GOP's mandates to it voters on whether to EV or not have been all over the map.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Yeah I can’t imagine the high female turnout in Michigan are republicans. I question his model on republican voters in Michigan. 

I mean, they actually might be via their vote history. But in some of these states, particularly in PA but also MI/WI as well, you're going to get people who are registered (PA) or model (MI/WI) as Rs who will end up voting for Kamala Harris, and that number could be not-insignificant.

Like, if Harris ends up improving her margin in Waukesha County, she isn't necessarily doing it by turning out more people who model as Ds.... she's persuading people who model as Rs.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

From his thread he's saying most of the remaining swing state voters are modeled for Republicans.

So then, what can we say about the ~16m likely swing-state voters who haven't voted yet? Most of them are Republicans:

Partisan comp:
AZ: 41% are Rs, 29% D
GA: 35%R 41%D
MI: 42%R 44%D
NC: 33%R 29%D
PA: 50%R 39%D
WI: 50%R 28%D

And roughly ~60% of them will probably vote on E-Day

But Harris leads the early vote. She has a 350k firewall on Pennsylvania not including non party affiliated. Early vote in Michigan has women +14. No way Trump is ahead in early vote. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Yeah I can’t imagine the high female turnout in Michigan are republicans. I question his model on republican voters in Michigan. 

There are many white women who love Trump. Trump performed well with white women in the past. He won white women by 7 points in 2020 over Biden. There are many white women who may be pro choice, care about abortion, but are still voting for Trump.

[Tigerbomb13]

Signed up for the Harris/Walz rally in Ann Arbor - I can’t leave until after 4:00 though so I don’t think it’s likely I can get in. 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

I mean, they actually might be via their vote history. But in some of these states, particularly in PA but also MI/WI as well, you're going to get people who are registered (PA) or model (MI/WI) as Rs who will end up voting for Kamala Harris, and that number could be not-insignificant.

Like, if Harris ends up improving her margin in Waukesha County, she isn't necessarily doing it by turning out more people who model as Ds.... she's persuading people who model as Rs.

She has like a 350k vote lead in Pennsylvania based on registration. Just not sure how they are coming up with she is currently behind and all votes left are republican. At that rate Trump is winning states like Minnesota and Virginia. 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

There are many white women who love Trump. Trump performed well with white women in the past. He won white women by 7 points in 2020 over Biden. There are many white women who may be pro choice, care about abortion, but are still voting for Trump.

Polls have shown Harris drawing even or taking the lead with white women. Women have been turning out for democrats since Dobbs but are going to stop now. 

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think EV analysis is worth spit because a) in many states EV is too new a system to have settled into any predictable pattern B) Covid makes 2020 a black swan event that is not projectable C) The GOP's mandates to it voters on whether to EV or not have been all over the map.

I differ with what Ed has said in the past insofar that I don't think it's completely worthless information (obviously pretty important for the campaigns themselves), but it's pretty worthless for people like us for the most part.

[Motown Bombers]

Again, there have been two polls of people who already voted and Harris was up 60-40. If a lot of republicans are voting early, that means a good chunk of them are voting for Harris. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Polls have shown Harris drawing even or taking the lead with white women. Women have been turning out for democrats since Dobbs but are going to stop now. 

Polls have undercounted Trump every time he's been on the ballot. Trump won white women by +7 in 2020. And every election since Dobbs has been an off presidential election, where Trump is not on the ballot. Some of these voters are not Republicans, they are Trump fans. They aren't showing up for Tudor Dixon or Dr. Oz or Blake Master or whatever Republican it is that doesn't have the last name of Trump. Last time we had a Presidential election white women went to Trump. Many of those white women probably didn't show up in any of the midterms or special elections because they are for Trump, not your average Republican.

I want to be positive and optimistic, it's just very hard when I look at this data and look at how Trump has overperformed polling in both elections he's been apart of.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Again, there have been two polls of people who already voted and Harris was up 60-40. If a lot of republicans are voting early, that means a good chunk of them are voting for Harris. 

And again, polling has undercounted Trump's support both times he's run for office.