2024 Presidential Election thread

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Morris is suggesting though that by raw vote numbers, leaving the polls aside, that more Rs have earlier vote

I'm not sure that's what he is saying. His 1st chart is % of ABEV compared to 2020. But the %'s do not reflect the actual vote numbers because Dems voted ABEV in massively higher numbers than Repubs. I don't think there is any sound logic that gets you from the fact that more Repubs are ABEV this cycle to the conclusion that GOP turnout will be higher overall. that's possible but nothing more than a guess. It's just a easy to speculate that every single Repub ABEV is a subtraction from their ED turnout. I don't think there is any significant predictive value in the past on this stuff for reasons I've stated above. Nobody knows.

Edited Monday at 03:57 PM by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

And again, polling has undercounted Trump's support both times he's run for office.

These are polls of people who already voted. There’s no projecting who is going to turn out or not. There’s no undecided voter. 

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

And again, polling has undercounted Trump's support both times he's run for office.

I don't know what will happen in eight days, but statistically speaking, you need more than an N=2 for something to be chiseled into stone.

Edited Monday at 03:56 PM by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

 

[Motown Bombers]

Buckle up because MAGA is releasing a ton of polls today. That’s how you know they are losing and that rally in New York was a disaster. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

These are polls of people who already voted. There’s no projecting who is going to turn out or not. There’s no undecided voter. 

Unless they are oversampling Ds in the poll.

[chasfh]

56 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

For what it's worth, David Plouffe has suggested a couple of times that they aren't seeing a ton of intensity with low-propensity voters like this in their early vote data thus far.

Flip side, David Plouffe is a partisan hack blowing sunshine up Dem voters’ butts. 

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I mean, they actually might be via their vote history. But in some of these states, particularly in PA but also MI/WI as well, you're going to get people who are registered (PA) or model (MI/WI) as Rs who will end up voting for Kamala Harris, and that number could be not-insignificant.

Like, if Harris ends up improving her margin in Waukesha County, she isn't necessarily doing it by turning out more people who model as Ds.... she's persuading people who model as Rs.

The other one that people seem to have forgotten is that a large number - certainly many hundred thousand, Dems registered R or took a Repub ballot to vote against Trump in primaries this cycle.  There is no corresponding symmetry going the other way, and in the swing states that is another skewing factor when you are looking at EV by party registration.

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Unless they are oversampling Ds in the poll.

What if they aren't?

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Flip side, David Plouffe is a partisan hack blowing sunshine up Dem voters’ butts. 

I hope not since he’s the senior advisor to Harris campaign. 

[Motown Bombers]

It’s probably just a coincidence that a bunch of right wing polls are coming out in Texas after Harris big rally there showing Trump ahead. After not putting out a lot of Texas polling, they suddenly have a keen interest in Texas. 

[romad1]

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

What if they aren't?

Then that is great news for Team Democracy and might bode well for us on election night.

[Motown Bombers]

I doubt they over sampled to the tune of giving Harris a 2 to 1 lead. The margin of error was 3%. 

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Then that is great news for Team Democracy and might bode well for us on election night.

There is plenty to be worried about, and it's not impossible that he's underestimated again. But that isn't a guarantee either and it shouldn't be taken on faith, especially with an N of 2.

Edited Monday at 04:12 PM by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

We also ignore the fact he underperformed in the primary. Haley was still getting 15-20% of the vote a month after she dropped out. 

[CMRivdogs]

Trumpub's keep yapping about deporting violent illegal aliens. Why don't we deport violent US citizens as well. Start with the 1/6/2021 convicted rioters

 

[The Ronz]

41 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

There are many white women who love Trump. Trump performed well with white women in the past. He won white women by 7 points in 2020 over Biden. There are many white women who may be pro choice, care about abortion, but are still voting for Trump.

No sh*t.

I've been telling everyone this for a while now.

The young white women - let's say under age 30 - are all voting for Trump.

The white women I know who are voting for the first time - let's say ages 18 - 20 - are fanatical  for Trump.

[Hongbit]

IYKYK - I really hope this isn’t a precursor for next Tuesday.  
 

 

[The Ronz]

Funny you mention that game.

Every Trumper I know watched it.

[Hongbit]

2 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

Funny you mention that game.

Every Trumper I know watched it.

They use the word Resident in place of Trumper in Howell.

[Motown Bombers]

12 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

No sh*t.

I've been telling everyone this for a while now.

The young white women - let's say under age 30 - are all voting for Trump.

The white women I know who are voting for the first time - let's say ages 18 - 20 - are fanatical  for Trump.

Like we've been saying for a while, you need to find better people to associate with. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Here are my big worries and some of my big hopes. I could be right, somewhat right, somewhat wrong, or completely wrong about any of these as could we all. Who knows what will happen.

Worries . . .

1. Polls are yet again underestimating the total turnout and overall support for Donald Trump. They've underestimated him in the past two elections his run in and may well be doing it a third time.

2. The electorate is being divided into college educated people vs. non-college educated people. While Republicans are losing ground with voters with a college degree, we are losing ground with voters with no college degree or college education period. I worry that are losses in non-college educated voters or voters with only some college are outpacing their losses with people with a college degree or some college.

3. White women went for Trump +7 last time in 2020. I worry that even with abortion on the ballot, white women, even if they themselves are pro choice, will still choose to vote Trump over Harris. They've been a reliable Trump voting block when he's run before.

4. Democrats are losing ground with young men and Trump/Republicans are gaining ground with them. While it appears more young women are going to turn out and vote than young men, they were still a very important part of the Biden coalition in 2020 and I fear we can't afford much, if any, slippage with these voters.

5. Hispanic voters, in particular, Hispanic men, seem to be trending away from Democrats and Harris. Another demographic I worry we can't afford any slippage with.

6. People are overestimating just how many Haley voters or moderate Republicans or disaffected Republicans are going to crossover for Harris. I worry this is being grossly overstated. Sure, you can anecdotally find these voters, maybe even a decent number of them to start an organization like Republican Voters Against Trump. But I sorta fella like all the juice has been squeezed out of that orange and there simply aren't enough crossover disaffected Republicans to make an impact on the election results.

7. Arab-American and Muslim-American voters in Michigan sitting it out, voting third party for Jill Stein, or voting for Trump. Many of them may be mad about the situation in the Middle East or shifting Republican because they are more culturally conservative and aligned with them.

8. Swing and independent voters simply don't see how unhinged Trump and his campaign surrogates have become. All of us are terminally online and monitor the news cycle and what's going on in the world 24/7. Many swing and independent voters consume a few minutes worth of news each week and each month. So while we look at the MSG rally and all the horrible, repugnant things said there, will your average voter even see it? Do they consume enough news or see this kind of news in social media algorithms to be aware of the chaos and depravity that's unfolding? I worry they have fond memories of the Trump economy and won't see or care about this news and will simply vote for Trump.

Hopeful . . .

1. Young women and black women are going to turn out in large numbers and boost the Democrats. I do feel like there is a noticeable enthusiasm among white women under 40 and black women of all ages to go and vote for Harris. Many are angry, fed up, and ready to vote.

2. Trump is running a bad campaign. This year's campaign from Trump is unlike his 2016 and 2020. He is off message all the time. He is ranting and raving all the time. He is more racist, more xenophobic, more sexist, more Islamophobic, more anti-Semitic, and more unhinged than ever before. His poor messaging and lack of a coherent argument will hurt his campaign efforts. He's also outsourced his door knocking and ground game efforts to an inexperienced person in Elon Musk. So I feel better knowing that someone whose never run a political campaign, field program, or coordinated a get out the vote effort is operating Trump's voter engagement efforts on the ground. I also feel better that they are using paid canvassers to do it as opposed to just regular, enthusiastic volunteers.

3. Harris has, for the most part, run an effective campaign. She seems to have solid messaging towards voters and various subgroups of voters. She also has stayed on message herself as a candidate and has delivered that message right to the different subgroups she has needed too. She also seemingly has the stronger door knocking operation on the ground. Her campaign has activated individual volunteers, union organizations, and has paid canvassers to top it all off.

4. Independents and swing voters will break our way in the closing weeks of the campaign. I do feel this does have a good chance to happen. That our closing message is better and Trump is more unhinged than ever. I feel good about the polling showcasing that Harris polls better on the question of "who fights for people like me more". That those voters, many of whom may not be tried and true Democrats, will be propelled towards Harris. Thus, that will improve her vote margins and overall vote totals with independent and swing voters.

5. I'm wrong about all or a good portion of the things I'm worried about.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

With low propensity "Barstool" types as well,

Ronz's immediate circle notwithstanding () my read is that these are the people who Trump could have had but are probably being turned off by a lot of Trumps current rhetoric and condition. Librul is still a dirty word to them, they don't hold any personal animus toward POC but still believe they get the short end of the stick from elites because of DEI. They are part of the GOP's natural economic grievance constituency, many are vets, they believe themselves to be stand-up guys, the guys that shake hands at the end of the hockey game,  and I think these are the people that Trump is starting to lose with the overt racism, the enemies talk, and the general deterioration in his psyche. The won't vote for Harris, but they can't deny in the hearts that Trump is a creep. They will find themselves busy enough on election day that they will just let it pass.

Edited Monday at 04:48 PM by gehringer_2

[LaceyLou]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

There are many white women who love Trump. Trump performed well with white women in the past. He won white women by 7 points in 2020 over Biden. There are many white women who may be pro choice, care about abortion, but are still voting for Trump.

This makes me think of some of the pro-Taliban women I saw interviewed years ago. I wonder if they realized then what their fate was going to be once they got their wish? 

It's similar to the story of the trees voting for the axe, which had to be one of them because its handle was made from wood.

ETA: second story doesn't appear to fit... maybe Stockholm syndrome instead? I still think there's truth to the quote.

Edited Monday at 04:46 PM by LaceyLou