2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

What I find interesting is that polling in red states where not a lot of polling is done, such as Nebraska and Alaska, shows Harris doing well. District level and local polling in swing states show Harris doing well. Down ballot races in swing states show Democrats doing well. These were all red flags in 2016. We are supposed to believe now that she is overperforming everywhere except the top line swing states?

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

This makes me think of some of the pro-Taliban women I saw interviewed years ago. I wonder if they realized then what their fate was going to be once they got their wish? 

 

[LaceyLou]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Ronz's immediate circle notwithstanding () my read is that these are the people who Trump could have had but are probably being turned off by a lot of Trumps current rhetoric and condition. Librul is still a dirty word to them, they don't hold any personal animus toward POC but still believe they get the short end of the stick from elites because of DEI. They are part of the GOP's natural economic grievance constituency, many are vets, they believe themselves to be stand-up guys, the guys that shake hands at the end of the hockey game,  and I think these are the people that Trump is starting to lose with the overt racism, the enemies talk, and the general deterioration in his psyche. The won't vote for Harris, but they will find themselves busy enough of election day that they will just let it pass.

In recent decades, the GOP has been successful in convincing men that Democrats are anti-masculinity, if not outright hostile to men (particularly white men). Perhaps if Democrats start circling back to the mantra of the 90s often attributed to women at the time, "it's the economy, stupid," they can find ways to remind men that a lot of their traditional staples (labor, education, etc) are also beneficial to men.

[romad1]

per this focus group...the Harris hesitant voters are breaking for her. 

 

Possibly manipulative but that is not normally how Sarah Longwell rolls. 

[mtutiger]

I'm not going to respond to every single point that Tater made (he made some good ones), but with respect to Republican defections, I do think these people are real. I don't know what the percentage looks like, but they could be determinative in some states.

[mtutiger]

James Carville's demographic to watch... College white men

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

I'm not going to respond to every single point that Tater made (he made some good ones), but with respect to Republican defections, I do think these people are real. I don't know what the percentage looks like, but they could be determinative in some states.

Defections may be a bridge too far, but I can definitely see non-voting. I think if you sow doubt, then "let the rest of them make the decision" is a more likely response than "you changed my mind." Non-voting is only half as effective but it still breaks the same way.

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

James Carville's demographic to watch... College white men

I’m also guessing these college educated white men in models of states like Michigan are treated as republicans. 

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Defections may be a bridge too far, but I can definitely see non-voting. I think if you sow doubt, then "let the rest of them make the decision" is a more likely response than "you changed my mind." Non-voting is only half as effective but it still breaks the same way.

There will be some of those too.

Again, I don't think it's a ton of people, but enough in a close race for sure.

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Arab-American and Muslim-American voters in Michigan sitting it out, voting third party for Jill Stein, or voting for Trump. Many of them may be mad about the situation in the Middle East or shifting Republican because they are more culturally conservative and aligned with them.

Islam is at least if not more homophobic and patriarchal than RW Christianity. I would easily believe that much of Arab opposition to Dems which is couched in terms of Gaza if really culturally based, because it's a lot more PC to be pro Gaza than anti-gay (etc). To be anti-Dem over Gaza doesn't even make any sense since Trump is way more firmiy in Bibi's pocket than Harris.

Edited October 28, 2024 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

Islam is at least if not more homophobic and patriarchal than RW Christianity. I would easily believe that much of Arab opposition to Dems which is couched in terms of Gaza if really culturally based, because it's a lot more PC to be pro Gaza than anti-gay. To be anti-Dem over Gaza doesn't even make any sense since Trump is way more firmiy in Bibi's pocket than Harris.

Have said it before, but it cannot go ignored the fact that Whitmer (while winning the state by 11 points in 2022) did close to 20 points worse with this demo than Biden did in 2020.

[CMRivdogs]

Judging from my interaction with Islamic cab drivers at DTW 10 plus years ago, I'd say they would break for Trump. Some of the most homophobic, women demeaning people I've ever dealt with.

[antrat]

There was a truck driver I knew that said Obama was going to declare himself dictator and refuse to leave office. This was when Obama was in office.

I guess I don't have to tell you that he is a Trumper now.

The irony.

[CMRivdogs]

 

[CMRivdogs]

And so it begins...

 

[LaceyLou]

It's a little unsettling to me that there are women who believe they should be told who to vote for by their husbands (or fathers, for that matter). 

 

[CMRivdogs]

1 minute ago, LaceyLou said:

It's a little unsettling to me that there are women who believe they should be told who to vote for by their husbands (or fathers, for that matter). 

 

I agree, if feels so 1960ish. But don't forget how long it took for suffrage in this country. And as recent as the mid to late 70s there were occupations who were very reluctant or restricted the # of women hired

[LaceyLou]

3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I agree, if feels so 1960ish. But don't forget how long it took for suffrage in this country. And as recent as the mid to late 70s there were occupations who were very reluctant or restricted the # of women hired

Agreed. I feel as though a lot of women don't realize how recently things that they now take for granted (getting a credit card on her own comes to mind) would have been denied them.

[CMRivdogs]

And he wants us to anoint him for a second  term as Complainer in Chief. 
 

I hope he totally pisses of Rupert...

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I hope not since he’s the senior advisor to Harris campaign. 

That makes it even more likely he’s blowing sunshine up our asses. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[LaceyLou]

Yup, until this I'd only seen footage of (a single) Muslim endorsing and speaking for Drumpf.

[Crazy Cat Gentleman]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

And so it begins...

 

only 3 ballots destroyed in Portland because we apparently put fire suppressants in the boxes. more like hundreds in Clark County (WA).

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2024/10/a-second-ballot-box-fire-this-time-in-clark-county-destroys-hundreds-of-ballots.html?outputType=amp

[1776]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

And so it begins...

 

With the U.S. presidential election a week away, another brokerage is letting people bet on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win. Crazy stuff.

If things weren’t crazy enough already, throw this in the mix. I’m sure no one would ever do anything under handed to profit from the outcome. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

And so it begins...

 

So much for paper ballots are more secure. 😏