2024 Presidential Election thread

[Tiger337]

25 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Is this adjusted for party idenification or any demographics?  The results are not useful without adjustments. 

[Edman85]

I went googling for other nerds pushing back on the "statistical tie" and came across a left leaning website explaining it well.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/18/2271324/-The-Great-Statistical-Tie-Fallacy

Edited October 29, 2024 by Edman85

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Within the margin of error is not a statistical tie. This needs to be a Bart Simpson Chalkboard meme.

That’s really not the point. Hawley is going to win. It’s another red state poll that shows Dems overachieving. 

[gehringer_2]

23 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Is this adjusted for party idenification or any demographics?  The results are not useful without adjustments. 

We might yet find out the results are not useful with adjustments......

[gehringer_2]

43 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I went googling for other nerds pushing back on the "statistical tie" and came across a left leaning website explaining it well.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/18/2271324/-The-Great-Statistical-Tie-Fallacy

This is all good with the exception that poll aggregation has lost much/all of its theoretical statistic power due to the manipulation of polling that is currently widespread. 

But the whole idea of MOE as a real boundary is a misunderstanding driven by the need for common media to short hand scientific/mathematically complexity. There is no actual boundary on the result, as explained in the KOS article, the MOE is simply the distance around the result that includes some total percentage of the likely outcomes. Change the chosen percentage, the MOE changes with it. It's only a meaningful measure to a particular total probability. Push the total included probability to 100.00..%, MOE goes to infinity.

And of course as I have vehemently protested all thread, once you add adjustment factors to re-bias your sample, as all nationwide polls are now doing, the MOE's given are pure fantasy because none of the pollsters know the true error introduced by their adjustment formulae.

Edited October 29, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

 

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

Where is Sandusky incarcerated? Send him there.

Wikipedia tells me near Waynesburg. Close enough

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[romad1]

30 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I think I concur on the 2012 comparisons.  

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Are these national exit polling numbers from all 50 states or just Texas? I assume they are all national numbers. And if they are national numbers and not localized to any one swing state, can we make much of a determination off that? If Trump is losing badly in California at a higher than expected average, but ahead in Georgia or Arizona, could the higher averages in one state be skewing these numbers. I'm such a glass half empty person.

[Tiger337]

50 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

We might yet find out the results are not useful with adjustments......

Sure, but they are certainly useless without them.  Of course Harris is winning big in early voing.  Republicans like to vote on election day.  

[oblong]

When my wife told her mom she was surprised she didn’t vote early, mother in law said “I want to make sure my vote counts” 

[Motown Bombers]

11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Sure, but they are certainly useless without them.  Of course Harris is winning big in early voing.  Republicans like to vote on election day.  

More Republicans are voting early than in 2020. Fewer Democrats are voting early and will vote later. This isn’t 2020. 

[Edman85]

This from Rampell's latest column... I'm just gonna let it stew for a bit. That's where we are.

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

More Republicans are voting early than in 2020. Fewer Democrats are voting early and will vote later. This isn’t 2020. 

Yes, but what is the gap?  The point is you listed polls where Harris is ip by 20 points and there is no way she is leading by that much.  I can't tell whether those are good results without seeing context.  

[Motown Bombers]

23 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Are these national exit polling numbers from all 50 states or just Texas? I assume they are all national numbers. And if they are national numbers and not localized to any one swing state, can we make much of a determination off that? If Trump is losing badly in California at a higher than expected average, but ahead in Georgia or Arizona, could the higher averages in one state be skewing these numbers. I'm such a glass half empty person.

It’s national. It includes red states too. If Harris is winning 60-40 nationally, she would be winning in a landslide. There’s also individual polls like in Arizona showing her ahead despite the Republican advantage in returned ballots. 

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

This from Rampell's latest column... I'm just gonna let it stew for a bit. That's where we are.

 

Same story as Italian caring more about the Trains running on time than Mussolini being a creep. People lack imagination about how fast a society can fall when you start caring more about transitory concerns than about process. Argentina, Hungary and Venezuela are pretty good examples but American don't pay much attention to overseas news/history.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Yes, but what is the gap?  The point is you listed polls where Harris is ip by 20 points and there is no way she is leading by that much.  I can't tell whether those are good results without seeing context.  

We are seeing one of two things: a) the dems are flooding the market with bad data designed to counter the GOP bad data, or b)results are filtering in that says the national polling models have been wrong.

Take your choice until Tues night when you can  cash in or lose your money!  😱

Edited October 29, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

This is from that large CES poll that was shared earlier. These are the swing state numbers. Those Georgia and Arizona numbers don't look that strong for Harris.

[romad1]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

Same story as Italian caring more about the Trains running on time than Mussolini being a creep. People lack imagination about how fast a society can fall when you start caring more about transitory concerns than about process. Argentina, Hungary and Venezuela are pretty good examples but American don't pay much attention to overseas news/history.

The Rule of Law is the foundation for a stable and successful country, economy, everything.  Without it we are nothing.  Strongman rule leads to disaster quickly.  I had some riff about it being like love in Corintheans but it was too hard to wedge "rule of law" into that stanza.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[romad1]

 

juxtapose this with this

 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I had some riff about it being like love in Corintheans but it was too hard to wedge "rule of law" into that stanza.

There is the countervailing view that no government is good enough for bad people and any government works for good ones. But that requires making cultural judgments that are taboo, not to mention that cultures do change, often as a result of government policy/action.

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

There is the countervailing view that no government is good enough for bad people and any government works for good ones. But that requires making cultural judgments that are taboo, not to mention that cultures do change, often as a result of government policy/action.

You work to create the best conditions you can.  Create the foundation for lifting as many boats as possible. You can't have bad government in the United States because bad government exists in Afghanistan or Russia.