2024 Presidential Election thread

[mtutiger]

33 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

 

This is from that large CES poll that was shared earlier. These are the swing state numbers. Those Georgia and Arizona numbers don't look that strong for Harris.

Unless my math is wrong, that would add up to a Harris EC win.

[Edman85]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Unless my math is wrong, that would add up to a Harris EC win.

Assuming all 270 of her electors are faithful and she gets NE-2, yes.

[mtutiger]

Just now, Edman85 said:

Assuming all 270 of her electors are faithful and she gets NE-2, yes.

CES shows her getting 276, not 270

[Edman85]

Just now, mtutiger said:

CES shows her getting 276, not 270

Whoops, missed Nevada.

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Unless my math is wrong, that would add up to a Harris EC win.

As is usual, I can see the election being half a loaf. Trump will lose but it will close enough that he won't go away and the GOP will remain in his thrall. So hopefully the courts have the cajones to put him in jail, or he shuffles off this mortal coil before 2028.

Edited October 29, 2024 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

32 minutes ago, romad1 said:

You work to create the best conditions you can.  Create the foundation for lifting as many boats as possible. You can't have bad government in the United States because bad government exists in Afghanistan or Russia.

 Well said here

 

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

As is usual, I can see the election being half a loaf. Trump will lose but it will close enough that he won't go away and the GOP will remain in his thrall. So hopefully he shuffles off this mortal coil before 2028.

I would take a narrow win at this point just for this alone - maybe with him off this mortal coil or too old / incapacitated, maybe it gives both parties an opportunity to regroup and move our politics beyond his BS.

If he wins, there'll be none of that.

[mtutiger]

CES's estimates are based off their demographic crosstabs - they had Trump gaining more with black voters and Harris gaining more with white voters than is likely to happen.

I particularly doubt the Georgia numbers.... I'd be surprised if the spread is that high.

[Edman85]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/10/29/poll-close-times/

Good summary of close times within. If it's close at all, we likely won't know Tuesday night.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

We are seeing one of two things: a) the dems are flooding the market with bad data designed to counter the GOP bad data, or b)results are filtering in that says the national polling models have been wrong.

Take your choice until Tues night when you can  cash in or lose your money!  😱

(c) the national polling models are correct and it's going to be a really close election with no clear winner.

(d) the national models are wrong in the same way they were in 2016 and 2020 and Trump is going to win.  

At any rate, MTB flooding the forum with sunshine results for the Democrats does not increase my confidence in Harris winning.  

My default predicton is that Harrs will win a close race bcause Americans can't be that dumb, but they've disappointed me before!

[Mr.TaterSalad]

33 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Unless my math is wrong, that would add up to a Harris EC win.

No it's right, but I'd like to have more of a cushion (no pun) than that incase a state, like Pennsylvania, doesn't break our way.  

[Tiger337]

What CES is saying is exactly what I'm hoping for.  

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

(c) the national polling models are correct and it's going to be a really close election with no clear winner.

(d) the national models are wrong in the same way they were in 2016 and 2020 and Trump is going to win.  

At any rate, MTB flooding the forum with sunshine results for the Democrats does not increase my confidence in Harris winning.  

My default predicton is that Harrs will win a close race bcause Americans can't be that dumb, but they've disappointed me before!

This is largely how I feel as well. I think she'll win by a hair with the blue wall states and maybe one other. I think the popular vote will be tighter as well.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Tiger337]

17 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/10/29/poll-close-times/

Good summary of close times within. If it's close at all, we likely won't know Tuesday night.

I am expecting a **** show as bad as 2020.  

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

(d) the national models are wrong in the same way they were in 2016 and 2020 and Trump is going to win.  

Isn't there an (e) option that involves pollsters overcorrecting?

I honestly don't know what is going on, but I do think that people are too dismissive of the idea that pollsters are trying things to increase accuracy from previous elections and that we ultimately won't know whether it works or not until after this thing happens.

Edited October 29, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

What CES is saying is exactly what I'm hoping for.  

I think it will be close too... my only real hot take is that she has more upside in Georgia than the polls are showing.

[Motown Bombers]

I think the republican vote for Harris is being underestimated. Her campaign put in a lot of work to convert those voters and get them to the polls. 

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Isn't there an (e) option that involves pollsters overcorrecting?

I honestly don't know what is going on, but I do think that people are too dismissive of the idea that pollsters are trying things to increase accuracy from previous elections and that we ultimately won't know whether it works or not until after this thing happens.

Yes, that is an option, but I thought that was one of Gehringer's choices.  I may have misread it.  

[LaceyLou]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Perhaps one reason Drumpf and company wanted people to vote early. 

[mtutiger]

The fact that this wasn't 9-0 is ridiculous 

[Motown Bombers]

I’m surprised the dissenting opinion wasn’t Thomas or Alito. 

[oblong]

Gorsuch is an odd duck.  He’d vote to seal his own death if he found some obscure writing somewhere in a libertarian journal to support it. 

[Motor City Sonics]

Well I did my part today.     

[oblong]

I don’t think anybody knows anything with regard to EV numbers.  There’s very little precedent to justify assumptions being made.