2024 Presidential Election thread

[oblong]

Just now, Motor City Sonics said:

Well I did my part today.     

I did too. Was there around 2

[mtutiger]

Yiiiikes

Edited October 29, 2024 by mtutiger

[Edman85]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Yiiiikes

This is scary.

[mtutiger]

Trump/Harris margin practically even vs. 2020 in this NEPA (red trending) district... Probably wins the state if this is what it ends up looking like

Edited October 29, 2024 by mtutiger

[LaceyLou]

15 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Yiiiikes

I saw clips of DJT saying all of the things that RKJ would be heading. Very scary indeed. 

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

My default predicton is that Harrs will win a close race bcause Americans can't be that dumb, but they've disappointed me before!

That is the question. I think the one service the MSM is doing this cycle is that while they may still be sane-washing Trump in term of his personal presentation, they are calling out the overt racism of his campaign in a big way, and while that certainly does consolidate his support in a narrow segment of his base, I do still believe that even if there are millions of Americans who complain about DEI, or are sometimes not 'woke' enough to see the institutional forms of racism that still exist around them, they still personally reject the characterization of themselves as racist people, and so I do believe the coverage in this cycle is going to peel of good number of traditional 'mainstream' GOP voters away from Trump because of that.

If I am wrong and this doesn't happen, then we will share in the disappoint in our fellow citizens.

Edited October 29, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Mr.TaterSalad]

9 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Trump/Harris margin practically even vs. 2020 in this NEPA (red trending) district... Probably wins the state if this is what it ends up looking like

Harris or Trump wins the state if this 8th Congressional District looks like this? I presume you mean Harris wins PA and not Trump?

[mtutiger]

12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Trump/Harris margin practically even vs. 2020 in this NEPA (red trending) district... Probably wins the state if this is what it ends up looking like

Just thinking aloud (PA is probably the swing state I know the most about outside of MI due to family reasons)... there's evidence (in district polling) that she's could improve in the Lehigh Valley (ie. Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton area) and in South Central PA (ie. Harrisburg Area). Suburban Philly and Pitt likely trend left as well. 

If all true, Scranton/Wilkes Barre is one of the best places to make up ground if you are losing raw votes elsewhere. If you aren't making up ground there, there aren't a lot of areas left; you have to make it up either in "The T" (ie. Alabama in the Middle), NW Corner (ie. Erie area) or via Urban PA (ie. Inner Core Philly/Pittsburgh, either collapse in turnout or an epochal shift in vote behavior).

Not saying any of those things cannot happen or that the district level polling is 100% correct, but it's something to think about, and partly why PA tends to get lumped in with MI as being one of Harris' more favorable states at the moment.

Edited October 29, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

Just now, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Harris or Trump wins the state if this 8th Congressional District looks like this? I presume you mean Harris wins PA and not Trump?

Correct, explained in subsequent post.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Correct, explained in subsequent post.

Do you know what kind of numbers Biden pulled in this district last time?

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Do you know what kind of numbers Biden pulled in this district last time?

Biden lost the district (in it's current form) by 2.8.

[Motown Bombers]

I'd be curious to see where the Republican votes have come from in Pennsylvania and if they are Haley areas. I suspect the early voting Republicans are going to be the ones more likely to vote for Harris. 

[Tiger337]

26 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

This is scary.

My organization often works directly with and gets grants from a few of those agencies, so we are very worried about that.   

[mtutiger]

Was Biden +7.1 in 2020.

Hmmm

[Motown Bombers]

I feel like the high turnout would favor Harris.

 

[Tiger337]

High turn out is probably the most positive predictor for Harris.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Was Biden +7.1 in 2020.

Hmmm

that's an impressive trend for Harris over 90 days. Something special about MN  - maybe that Walz is on the ticket? Or is there reason to expect that trend holds anywhere else?

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

that's an impressive trend for Harris over 90 days. Something special about MN  - maybe that Walz is on the ticket? Or is there reason to expect that trend holds anywhere else?

I think it's just Dems coming home. She's right at Biden's number in Minnesota. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motor City Sonics]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

I did too. Was there around 2

I was there at 10am.   They told me I picked a good day because there were long lines Saturday, Sunday and Monday 

[Dan Gilmore]

My son is on the very crowded ellipse.

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I feel like the high turnout would favor Harris.

 

What if that is the Barstool Bros? Trump turns a lot of people out that sit out midterms.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

What if that is the Barstool Bros? Trump turns a lot of people out that sit out midterms.

But it's a million more than the election that Biden won and that Trump was in. It wasn't a midterm. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Tigermojo]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

"Oh my God, that's unbelievable." - Donald Trump