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2024 Presidential Election thread


pfife

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1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

My default predicton is that Harrs will win a close race bcause Americans can't be that dumb, but they've disappointed me before!

That is the question. I think the one service the MSM is doing this cycle is that while they may still be sane-washing Trump in term of his personal presentation, they are calling out the overt racism of his campaign in a big way, and while that certainly does consolidate his support in a narrow segment of his base, I do still believe that even if there are millions of Americans who complain about DEI, or are sometimes not 'woke' enough to see the institutional forms of racism that still exist around them, they still personally reject the characterization of themselves as racist people, and so I do believe the coverage in this cycle is going to peel of good number of traditional 'mainstream' GOP voters away from Trump because of that.

If I am wrong and this doesn't happen, then we will share in the disappoint in our fellow citizens.

Edited by gehringer_2
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12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Trump/Harris margin practically even vs. 2020 in this NEPA (red trending) district... Probably wins the state if this is what it ends up looking like

Just thinking aloud (PA is probably the swing state I know the most about outside of MI due to family reasons)... there's evidence (in district polling) that she's could improve in the Lehigh Valley (ie. Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton area) and in South Central PA (ie. Harrisburg Area). Suburban Philly and Pitt likely trend left as well. 

If all true, Scranton/Wilkes Barre is one of the best places to make up ground if you are losing raw votes elsewhere. If you aren't making up ground there, there aren't a lot of areas left; you have to make it up either in "The T" (ie. Alabama in the Middle), NW Corner (ie. Erie area) or via Urban PA (ie. Inner Core Philly/Pittsburgh, either collapse in turnout or an epochal shift in vote behavior).

Not saying any of those things cannot happen or that the district level polling is 100% correct, but it's something to think about, and partly why PA tends to get lumped in with MI as being one of Harris' more favorable states at the moment.

Edited by mtutiger
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