2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

 

[MichiganCardinal]

22 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

In Michigan at least, a voter can spoil an unreceived absentee ballot (but not an Early Vote) up until 4pm the Monday before Election Day.

So if there are num nuts like this in Michigan who have already mailed it their ballot, but it has not been received, it's not too late to call their clerk, sign a paper, spoil it, and get a new ballot (or vote in person). Of course, if they early voted, or if their vote has been received and counted, it's locked in stone.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

 

Considering Arnold's history (and how he came to this country and how he landed in the GOP), I found this really powerful.

[CMRivdogs]

4 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

In Michigan at least, a voter can spoil an unreceived absentee ballot (but not an Early Vote) up until 4pm the Monday before Election Day.

So if there are num nuts like this in Michigan who have already mailed it their ballot, but it has not been received, it's not too late to call their clerk, sign a paper, spoil it, and get a new ballot (or vote in person). Of course, if they early voted, or if their vote has been received and counted, it's locked in stone.

During the 2020 Primary season the candidate I voted for dropped out just before the election. I voted in person at the registar’s office. I was allowed to revote. It may have been the circumstance or the rules have changed since then

[romad1]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Considering Arnold's history (and how he came to this country and how he landed in the GOP), I found this really powerful.

and who and what his father was.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

[mtutiger]

Three polls now today (Noble, YouGov - National, Marquette - Wisconsin) showing Harris with leads despite electorates that are very Republican leaning (R +3, R+3 and R+5 respectively).

That really stands out.... She's getting leads in individual polls even with heavy R samples.

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Three polls now today (Noble, YouGov - National, Marquette - Wisconsin) showing Harris with leads despite electorates that are very Republican leaning (R +3, R+3 and R+5 respectively).

That really stands out.... She's getting leads in individual polls even with heavy R samples.

Polling of people who have already voted show Harris with a big lead despite in some instances Republicans voting early at a higher rate than 2020. The Harris campaign has invested in moving these moderate republicans. I’ve never seen so many politicians support the candidate of the opposite party. I do think we are going to see more crossover than we’ve seen in recent memory. 

[Motor City Sonics]

All the polls.   So burnt out. 

It has me worried and having trouble sleeping

But I keep going back to a few things

Do you think a lot of Biden voters have switched to Trump?   I really really doubt it

Do you think a decent amount of Trump voters are switching to Harris?   Yes, I do.  

And the youth vote.   There was a big ground swell of younger people getting into this game when Kamala became the nominee.   Do you think they've suddenly abandoned her?   I highly doubt that.      The youth vote was alienated when it was two old men - now that it's a more youthful candidate (and female) I think those voters are more energized.   I know Kamala isn't "young" by she feels young compared to the last 2 election cycles and that youthful appeal is what propelled Obama into office. 

Lee is right that America has disappointed us in the past, but I can't get past this youthquake that happened when Harris became the nominee.   Younger voters are not polled well.   They certainly weren't in 2022 when they led the way in preventing a red wave and turning it into a red trickle down your driveway when you wash your car.   Biden's midterm when so many still contested his victory and when the economy hadn't recovered yet from Covid, it should have been a massive red wave - which is what many polls said.  

 

 

 

Oh, and Biden insulting Trump's racist supporters in that rally?   That's not even a trickle, in fact, I think it's more likely people would appreciate the fact that someone on the Democratic side said it, because it was the right thing to say.  Those people are the floating garbage.  

It just fits their pattern.  Any city, place, island with a high population of darker skinned people is going to be referred to as bad.   It's the racism, stupid.  

Edited October 30, 2024 by Motor City Sonics

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Do you think a lot of Biden voters have switched to Trump?   I really really doubt it

Maybe. Anecdotally, I know three people who were previously Bernie Sanders "progressives" who are now all in for Trump. And it's not about all Biden voters switching to Trump. It's about them staying home or voting third party for Jill Stein or Cornell West. I think there are also people who are frustrated over inflation and the border who may have switched back as well. Even if inflation has been coming down for sometime, many voters still feel prices are high on this because they expect deflation, where prices go back to where they were before. Here in Michigan we have the obvious problem with Arab-American and Muslim voters angry over the war in Gaza where we could lose previous Biden support.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Maybe. Anecdotally, I know three people who were previously Bernie Sanders "progressives" who are now all in for Trump. And it's not about all Biden voters switching to Trump. It's about them staying home or voting third party for Jill Stein or Cornell West. I think there are also people who are frustrated over inflation and the border who may have switched back as well. Even if inflation has been coming down for sometime, many voters still feel prices are high on this because they expect deflation, where prices go back to where they were before. Here in Michigan we have the obvious problem with Arab-American and Muslim voters angry over the war in Gaza where we could lose previous Biden support.

LOL next to Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders is the worst thing to happen to democracy. Those dip**** leftists were never voting for a democrat. He turned a whole generation of young white men against America. 

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Here in Michigan we have the obvious problem with Arab-American and Muslim voters angry over the war in Gaza where we could lose previous Biden support.

To be fair, the fact that Gretchen Whitmer did 20 points worse with this group despite winning the state by 11 suggests other reasons could be a factor as well

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, mtutiger said:

To be fair, the fact that Gretchen Whitmer did 20 points worse with this group despite winning the state by 11 suggests other reasons could be a factor as well

Yeah like their homophobia. Those anti trans ads only worked on Arabs and Muslims. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

LOL next to Donald Trump, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan the worst thing to happen to democracy. Those dip**** leftists were never voting for a democrat. He turned a whole generation of young white men against America. 

I saw your typo so I fixed it. Thanks to Bubba's deregulation with the Telecommunications Act of 1996, we ended up with the rise of right wing hate media and talk radio. The problems of Trump started waaaaay before he came onto the political scene. From Reagan to Bubba to Newt Gingrich, the era of deregulation has ruined this country and driven the politics of it.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Mr.TaterSalad

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Yeah like their homophobia. Those anti trans ads only worked on Arabs and Muslims. 

Dobbs is a factor too....

People don't want to engage on this, but the discussion around these voters is more nuanced than what we generally get. Mostly because a) it's inconvenient and b) national media outlets don't understand the demographics of Michigan at all.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I saw your typo so I fixed it. Thanks to Bubba's deregulation with the Telecommunications Act of 1996, we ended up with the rise of right wing hate media and talk radio. The problems of Trump started waaaaay before he came onto the political scene. From Reagan to Bubba to Newt Gingrich, the era of deregulation has ruined this country and driven the politics of it.

Joe Biden voted for the same act. Bernie Bros couldn’t vote for Hillary. This is what they wanted but where is the revolution Susan Sarandon promised?

[Mr.TaterSalad]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

To be fair, the fact that Gretchen Whitmer did 20 points worse with this group despite winning the state by 11 suggests other reasons could be a factor as well

Sure, but Whitmer still won overall with Arab-American and Muslim voters. That is looking less likely this time. I don't doubt that social issues cost us some votes due to many Muslims conservative religious views. But when abortion was on the ballot in Michigan, Whitmer still won overall with Arab-Americans and Muslims.

[Motown Bombers]

Biden’s margin in 2020 was well more than the entire population of Dearborn. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Joe Biden voted for the same act. Bernie Bros couldn’t vote for Hillary. This is what they wanted but where is the revolution Susan Sarandon promised?

Ronald Reagan did far more damage to our Democratic institutions than Sanders. As did Clinton's deregulation, Telecommunications Act and otherwise. The 1996 Telecommunications Act is particularly egregious though because it allowed local broadcast media, radio especially, to be coopted  and monopolized by big media companies that support conservative view points. Right wing radio and TV media exploded thanks to companies like Clear Channel, Cumulus, New Corp, and Sinclair. These companies were able to buy up thousands of radio and TV stations across the country and bring on dozens of right wing, conservative syndicated talk show hosts after the 1996 Telecommunications Act went through.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Sure, but Whitmer still won overall with Arab-American and Muslim voters. That is looking less likely this time. I don't doubt that social issues cost us some votes due to many Muslims conservative religious views. But when abortion was on the ballot in Michigan, Whitmer still won overall with Arab-Americans and Muslims.

Whitmer would have still won without Wayne County. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Biden’s margin in 2020 was well more than the entire population of Dearborn. 

It would still be nice to have their votes in the Harris coalition though. We need all the votes we can get.

[romad1]

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Ronald Reagan did far more damage to our Democratic institutions than Sanders. As did Clinton's deregulation, Telecommunications Act and otherwise. The 1996 Telecommunications Act is particularly egregious though because it allowed local broadcast media, radio especially, to be coopted  and monopolized by big media companies that support conservative view points. Right wing radio and TV media exploded thanks to companies like Clear Channel, Cumulus, New Corp, and Sinclair. These companies were able to buy up thousands of radio and TV stations across the country and bring on dozens of right wing, conservative syndicated talk show hosts after the 1996 Telecommunications Act went through.

I don’t give a **** about what happened 30 years ago. Bernie Sanders turned a bunch of young white men against Hillary which put us where we are today. You can keep doing this word salad of legislation from the 90’s but that’s where we are because you and other lefties pushed ****ing Jill Stein. 

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Sure, but Whitmer still won overall with Arab-American and Muslim voters. That is looking less likely this time. I don't doubt that social issues cost us some votes due to many Muslims conservative religious views. But when abortion was on the ballot in Michigan, Whitmer still won overall with Arab-Americans and Muslims.

Sure, but my point is that a lot of these losses (to the extent that they further materialize) are already baked into the landscape. And again, this is a group of voters that, in totality, is significantly less than Biden's margin in 2020. A couple of point shift to the left in Oakland County, or a couple of more points of turnout in Detroit (which is a hydrogen bomb of D votes) would single-handedly wipe out those losses and thensome.

All of this is to say that if Harris loses Michigan, it isn't going to be because of Arab voters... it will be because she lost ground in other, larger parts of the electorate that make up the state. It doesn't mean that this group isn't important, every vote matters, but context matters as well.

Edited October 30, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

Wow