2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

So, why does she have a higher approval rating than Trump even in right wing polls, but she is losing the presidential polls conducted by the same right wing polling orgs?  My guess is that people like her more than Trump, but don't think she would be a good President.   

It seems like you are just cherry picking every poll where she looks good and ignoring all he polls where Trump looks good.  

Because the right wing polls only purpose is to show Trump leading, and they are junk. I don't even care what the right wing polls show as her approval rating, but even they can't get Trump a higher approval rating. The quality independent polls have her ahead in approval rating as well. Literally none of the right wing polls have Trump with a higher approval. 

You're literally just guessing and accusing me of cherry picking. That's rich. 

[mtutiger]

 

21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

But she's not the President.  People might think she is fineas VP, but not ready to be President.  

I am not trying to be negative.  I don't know who's going to win.  I just think there are numerous reasons why people wouldn't want to vote for her, superficial or otherwise.  

 

Couldn't you say the same of her opponent?

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

So, why does she have a higher approval rating than Trump even in right wing polls, but she is losing the presidential polls conducted by the same right wing polling orgs?  My guess is that people like her more than Trump, but don't think she would be a good President.   

Probably right... although if I were putting money on it, I'd want the candidate who has a 10 point favorability advantage over the other. Objectively.

[Motown Bombers]

I don't think anybody answering a poll a week before the election about whether they approve of Kamala Harris is answering it about her role as Vice President and not on what President she will be. People are asked the same question of Trump and he has no office. 

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

Couldn't you say the same of her opponent?

Yes, and we've talked about that for 9 years.  

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, LaceyLou said:

I've been disappointed by white women voters before, especially my fellow Gen Xers. 

The Post-Dobbs landscape is a real difference.... 

[Tiger337]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think anybody answering a poll a week before the election about whether they approve of Kamala Harris is answering it about her role as Vice President and not on what President she will be. People are asked the same question of Trump and he has no office. 

They why is she wining those polls (even the right wing polls you said) but losing the Presidential polls?  

[LaceyLou]

I think many of us are preparing for the worst, tbh. 

The scenario of Harris wins popular vote, but not the electoral vote is feeling way too possible. 

 

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

They why is she wining those polls (even the right wing polls you said) but losing the Presidential polls?  

Because they are junk and Trump is hated so much, they can't even manipulate a better approval rating. Their only purpose is to skew averages. They did this in 2022. Steve Bannon said it was the plan. 

[mtutiger]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Yes, and we've talked about that for 9 years.  

It doesn't make it any less noteworthy or relevant.

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

They why is she wining those polls (even the right wing polls you said) but losing the Presidential polls?  

She's not losing all the polls...

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

I think many of us are preparing for the worst, tbh. 

The scenario of Harris wins popular vote, but not the electoral vote is feeling way too possible. 

 

It's very possible.... I don't know if she's in 50/50 odds at this point.

I just believe that being relentlessly negative all the time does way more harm than good.

Edited 1 hour ago by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

One of the top pollsters, and she is at 50% in all three states.

[LaceyLou]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The Post-Dobbs landscape is a real difference.... 

I hope you're right. I want my nieces to have just as many opportunities as my nephews. 

And for me it's not the only issue. What I've seen of his other proposals makes me think it would be a disaster economically, too. 

Is it true he and his campaign, are billions in debt right now? 

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

She's not losing all the polls...

She's winning the quality independent polls.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, LaceyLou said:

I hope you're right. I want my nieces to have just as many opportunities as my nephews. 

And for me it's not the only issue. What I've seen of his other proposals makes me think it would be a disaster economically, too. 

Is it true he and his campaign, are billions in debt right now? 

It's natural to want to compare this campaign to 2020 and 2016, but Dobbs (which is underplayed a lot when discussing politics) is a big differentiator... anyone who claims to know how big or little of a difference that makes in this election is lying. We need to see it.

As far as his campaign is concerned, he's run a terrible campaign and Harris, given what she was left with, has made the most of her opportunities. And he's raised far less money than Harris (and Biden), suggesting there's a real difference in enthusiasm this time. If he wins, it's mostly going to be on an anti-incumbency environment versus anything he's proactively doing to win.... his campaign is that bad.

[LaceyLou]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's very possible.... I don't know if she's in 50/50 odds at this point.

I just believe that being relentlessly negative all the time does way more harm than good.

I'm from New England, I can't help it. 😉

I'm actually fine, most of the time-as long as I stay off of twitter and all of its Russian bots spewing out trash. And I almost never go there. Twitter was cool, X not so much.

[Motown Bombers]

I like how Joe Biden got Trump to put his name on a garbage truck and have all their supporters wear garbage. 

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

She's not losing all the polls...

MTB says she is winning the approval rating polls, even the right wing polls where she is losing in the election poll. Why is that?  

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

She's winning the quality independent polls.

She's winning some and she's losing some.... it's a close ****ing race.

I swear, the way it gets discussed, you'd be hard pressed not to think that it was already over....

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

She's winning some and she's losing some.... it's a close ****ing race.

I swear, the way it gets discussed, you'd be hard pressed not to think that it was already over....

I haven't seen many that had Trump. I think Fox had Trump up but actually losing the electoral college. 

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

MTB says she is winning the approval rating polls, even the right wing polls where she is losing in the election poll. Why is that?  

Probably previous familiarity given that he was President before.

That doesn't mean that he's guaranteed to win either... if anything, someone in his position should be running away this thing right now. And yet he isn't.

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

She's winning some and she's losing some.... it's a close ****ing race.

I swear, the way it gets discussed, you'd be hard pressed not to think that it was already over....

I agree.  There is nothing to suggest that it's over either way.  I will not be surprised with either one winning.    

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

MTB says she is winning the approval rating polls, even the right wing polls where she is losing in the election poll. Why is that?  

Because they are junk. One of the polls is literally run by Michael Flynn. 

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I agree.  There is nothing to suggest that it's over either way.  I will not be surprised with either one winning.    

I'd rather be her, but it's going to be close.... she's just running a better campaign, and some of the Congressional level data suggests she's stronger than what is getting picked up in state/national polling.

And as far as the polls are concerned, given the stakes, I think they are trying really hard not to underestimate Trump a third time. You see it in the samples they are putting out (ie. most polls seem to be assuming a very Republican electorate)