2024 Presidential Election thread

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Because they are junk. One of the polls is literally run by Michael Flynn. 

Then that means the approval polls are junk too.  

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Then that means the approval polls are junk too.  

Yes, her approval by those right wing polls is junk. You subtract those out and use the independent ones, and her approval rating only gets better over Trump. 

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'd rather be her, but it's going to be close.... she's just running a better campaign, and some of the Congressional level data suggests she's stronger than what is getting picked up in state/national polling.

And as far as the polls are concerned, given the stakes, I think they are trying really hard not to underestimate Trump a third time. You see it in the samples they are putting out (ie. most polls seem to be assuming a very Republican electorate)

I think she is running a good campaign.  She has sounded better than I expected.  She seems to have grown since the days she was failing in primaries.  The problem is that Trump ALWAYS sounds like a moron to me and yet he's still here.  

Edited November 1, 2024 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

You see it in the samples they are putting out (ie. most polls seem to be assuming a very Republican electorate)

This. Some analysis I've  - for instance someone (not Bonior) dove into the tabs of a 3 poll series from Quinipiac (not normally considered hacks) and found the actual difference in their reported results, which showed Trump gaining in the three successive surveys, was ALL in the sample weighting. 

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

This. Some analysis I've  - for instance someone (not Bonior) dove into the tabs of a 3 poll series from Quinipiac (not normally considered hacks) and found the actual difference in their reported results, which showed Trump gaining in the three successive surveys, was ALL in the sample weighting. 

The Marquette Law poll of Wisconsin that had her up 50-49 (from Wednesday this week) was enlightening for me.... She managed that with an R+5 sample.

They all approach polling and subsequent weighting differently, but one gets the sense that they all agree on not underestimating Trump going forward 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

 

[pfife]

A caller to cspan just said he changed from Democrat to Republican in September because all politicians have diarrhea of the mouth

[Edman85]

Something is fishy with the AtlasIntel polls. The frequency and sample size. I'm surprised Silver weights them so heavily.

[romad1]

Literally calling for Liz Cheney's death by firing squad should have been a decisive moment.   We have to break this movement.   To quote Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln:  "the moment is NOW!"

[Motown Bombers]

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

So, I think you are doing fine work here MTB.   I'm convinced by a couple things i've seen in the final week that the aggregate will be a good night for Harris (and America and Democracy).  

We should be worried still that Trump's team are using polls-as-propaganda because the gunstrokers and lightly-educated will see them as reason for another Jan 6 or whatever other escalation of their fascist program they organize.

One good thing is that many of these people were put in prison over the last 4 years and they lost a core of organizers but Mike Flynn and his brother are still free.  Steve Bannon just got out of prison and probably was organizing while in jail.   I hope the counter-planning has been as robust.  I think perhaps it has.  

[pfife]

16 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Literally calling for Liz Cheney's death by firing squad should have been a decisive moment.   We have to break this movement.   To quote Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln:  "the moment is NOW!"

He was talking about the automobile industry 

[Edman85]

8 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Behind a paywall so not sure how good these tapes are. 

It's Michael Wolff, so while I believe there's definitely Epstein ties out there, Wolff doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to veracity.

[romad1]

My dreams for an immediate post election/post inaugural period for Harris: 

• Trump sentenced
• Peaceful transfer of office from Biden to Harris with a joyful ceremony
• Putin/Zelensky peace deal that allows Ukraine into EU and some sort of less-than-awesome status quo agreement on the borders
• Some sort of agreement on territorial integrity of Taiwan that encourages China opening up and relaxing their hike toward Stalinist isolation
• Brexit reversed and the UK reintegrated into the EU (not Harris' job obviously but probably best for the West).

But all that requires that item 2 occur.

[romad1]

8 minutes ago, romad1 said:

So, I think you are doing fine work here MTB.   I'm convinced by a couple things i've seen in the final week that the aggregate will be a good night for Harris (and America and Democracy).  

We should be worried still that Trump's team are using polls-as-propaganda because the gunstrokers and lightly-educated will see them as reason for another Jan 6 or whatever other escalation of their fascist program they organize.

One good thing is that many of these people were put in prison over the last 4 years and they lost a core of organizers but Mike Flynn and his brother are still free.  Steve Bannon just got out of prison and probably was organizing while in jail.   I hope the counter-planning has been as robust.  I think perhaps it has.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ar-AA1thPtt

Quote

Michael Flynn Predicts Potential ‘Violence’ If Election Results Aren’t Known Immediately

 

[mtutiger]

Bernie Porn has spoken 

[romad1]

27 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

It's Michael Wolff, so while I believe there's definitely Epstein ties out there, Wolff doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to veracity.

I'm not even going to bother with the Tom Hardy Mad Max "that's bait" meme on anything involving Wolff.

[Motown Bombers]

I’m actually curious to see the Seltzer poll. I know Harris likely isn’t winning Iowa, but it could be telling if Harris made any gains. 

[romad1]

included for humorous "leroy jenkins" content from the early early internet days

 

[romad1]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

I’m actually curious to see the Seltzer poll. I know Harris likely isn’t winning Iowa, but it could be telling if Harris made any gains. 

Yeah, that would be interesting.

[LaceyLou]

39 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It still puzzles me that anybody would trust Drumpf on the economy. With all his bankruptcies, failed business ventures, and current campaign debt in the billions? His track record sucks. So if people are thinking twice I'm happy.

And while I don't think it would be possible to accomplish quickly, Elon's plan to slash 3 trillion from the government spending (all while spending millions and possibly billions to deport 'undesirables') would have a disastrous effect. It sounds similar to policies of the Hoover administration and we all know how that worked. 

I think people would shocked to know just how many Americans lived in abject poverty before safety nets and worker safety rules came to be-unfortunately it's still unacceptable how many Americans are hungry and unfortunately it can get worse. Even if the economy eventually stabilizes there's a good chunk of people who will never recover.

How many of us have jobs that are financed in part by government programs? How many of us depend on roads, water, energy, transportation, and other infrastructure that's funded by government? 

How many businesses have been subsidized? OK, so they'll be exempt from cuts, but still. Elon, can we have those billions you accepted for SpaceX back? 

(Sorry to drag you into this via replying to your post, MTB, you just happened to have something that highlights what I believe should be a strength for Harris)

[LaceyLou]

38 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

It's Michael Wolff, so while I believe there's definitely Epstein ties out there, Wolff doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to veracity.

That, and we've seen multiple times that his supporters don't seem to care what he does. In order to beat him, we have to get enough people to vote for Harris to outnumber them. I do think a lot has been done to do that. Will it be enough? I don't know.

[pfife]

If wolff dropped an audio tape, isnt the real question the authenticity of the audio, not the authenticity of wolff?

[Edman85]

3 minutes ago, pfife said:

If wolff dropped an audio tape, isnt the real question the authenticity of the audio, not the authenticity of wolff?

Both? Wolff has shown himself to be a poor filter.

[gehringer_2]

8 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Then that means the approval polls are junk too.  

Possibly - or maybe in a simple approval survey they aren't superimposing their estimates of who is likely or registered to vote, etc?

But it still comes down to the fact that when you don't have a sampling methodology that can give you a sample you believe is closer to random than a 5% bias,  you don't have a very good sampling methodology.

Edited November 1, 2024 by gehringer_2