2024 Presidential Election thread

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Because they are junk. One of the polls is literally run by Michael Flynn. 

Then that means the approval polls are junk too.  

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Then that means the approval polls are junk too.  

Yes, her approval by those right wing polls is junk. You subtract those out and use the independent ones, and her approval rating only gets better over Trump. 

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'd rather be her, but it's going to be close.... she's just running a better campaign, and some of the Congressional level data suggests she's stronger than what is getting picked up in state/national polling.

And as far as the polls are concerned, given the stakes, I think they are trying really hard not to underestimate Trump a third time. You see it in the samples they are putting out (ie. most polls seem to be assuming a very Republican electorate)

I think she is running a good campaign.  She has sounded better than I expected.  She seems to have grown since the days she was failing in primaries.  The problem is that Trump ALWAYS sounds like a moron to me and yet he's still here.  

Edited 2 hours ago by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

You see it in the samples they are putting out (ie. most polls seem to be assuming a very Republican electorate)

This. Some analysis I've  - for instance someone (not Bonior) dove into the tabs of a 3 poll series from Quinipiac (not normally considered hacks) and found the actual difference in their reported results, which showed Trump gaining in the three successive surveys, was ALL in the sample weighting. 

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

This. Some analysis I've  - for instance someone (not Bonior) dove into the tabs of a 3 poll series from Quinipiac (not normally considered hacks) and found the actual difference in their reported results, which showed Trump gaining in the three successive surveys, was ALL in the sample weighting. 

The Marquette Law poll of Wisconsin that had her up 50-49 (from Wednesday this week) was enlightening for me.... She managed that with an R+5 sample.

They all approach polling and subsequent weighting differently, but one gets the sense that they all agree on not underestimating Trump going forward 

[Mr.TaterSalad]