2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

I can’t get over the guy concerned about inflation wants to vote for the guy promising to raise the price on most goods by 20% or more. 

[Hongbit]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Total employment in the US is something like 160million people so to try to measure it down the 200K level is actually an amazing feat of accuracy. But we have people here immediately jumping to conspiracy assumptions when the measurement  misses by about 0.1% of the total. You don't even get the gas you buy at the pump measured closer than 0.5%

It really isn’t too much to ask for a better system for a piece of data so important that it caused major market moves every time it’s released.  This isn’t pump 5 at a Mobil station. 

Look at this chart.  The consistency of massive misses on the initial release is staggering.  How can you honestly refer to this an amazing feat of accuracy?  

[Motor City Sonics]

9 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Thanks. I hope we can some day get back to a normal country that does not hate each other. 

Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich started all of this.    I don't see any common sense people taking control of the Republican party any time soon.    I think John Kasich was trying a few years ago.    The more pragmatic issue-oriented types have been pushed aside for these extremists and conspiracy theorists and yes RACISTS.    The extremists on the left are kind of kept on the fringes.    It's at the point where most Democrats just roll their eyes and let folks like Tlaib talk themselves tired.     Yes, I believe in some conspiracies.  I'll never buy the JFK assassination story.     Most of my conspiracy beliefs are sports related (David Stern rigged the Patrick Ewing draft,  the Refs were told to pick up the flag against the Cowboys,  Game 6 of the 2002 WCF was rigged for the Lakers).  But those sports are businesses, those are entertainment and they can run their show any way they want.  I'm the sucker for believing it was legit.   

[Sports_Freak]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

I can’t get over the guy concerned about inflation wants to vote for the guy promising to raise the price on most goods by 20% or more. 

He's lying about everything he'll do. Between tarriffs and deporting millions of people, he would totally destroy the economy, as well as quickly bankrupt social security. Millions of immigrants pay into SS but aren't eligible to collect it. Remove them and the only way to keep paying benefits it to raise the SS tax. Or just stop paying benefits and let millions of seniors starve out on the streets. Remember...Donald Trump bankrupt casinos!

[Motor City Sonics]

double post. sorry

Edited 2 hours ago by Motor City Sonics

[oblong]

23 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

So if you saw me at Tigers game would you punch me in the face? I would buy you a beer, hope you like IPA's.

I wouldn’t make up you buy me an IPA there, too expensive. We can indulge in a $5 MGD.  I’ve been getting those lately at games. Satisfied my thirst and saves me about $8.  

[MichiganCardinal]

The nature of text message campaigns is obscene and needs to be regulated, but these are the ones that are really getting under my skin. This is clearly a Trump group posing as a Harris group to rile up the progressives and get them to flip or stay home. It’s false advertising. I’ve gotten three just like it in the two days.

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by MichiganCardinal

[Tigermojo]

35 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

So everyone that votes for Trump is a racist natzi? Seriously, there will be millions that do, what happens when it is a peaceful transistion of power to Harris. Will society accept it and move on? Will the left look at at RW folks as less than americans? I want nothing but peace and prosperity for all americans, I am not sure we will ever get back to that.

No but they are being fooled by a racist Nazi just like the people of Germany were fooled and they still deeply regret it to this day, as they should. Trump wants to be a gangster like Putin or better yet, a deity like Kim Jong Un. Would you want to live in a country like Russia or North Korea? The only reason you're still in a free country now is because there were people in the government who stood up to him and stopped him from doing whatever he wanted as President.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

It really isn’t too much to ask for a better system for a piece of data so important that it caused major market moves every time it’s released.  This isn’t pump 5 at a Mobil station. 

Look at this chart.  The consistency of massive misses on the initial release is staggering.  How can you honestly refer to this an amazing feat of accuracy?  

If it doesn't make sense to you that it's really really hard to be accurate with small changes in huge numbers and the order magnitude issues associated with that there is nothing else I can tell you. The fact that a number is important has zero to do with whether it easy to get! 

And this really goes directly back to why a guy like Trump is do damn dangerous. You rag on BLS now when it's full of career civil servants with civil service protection against the political whims of the party in power. After Trump does away with Civil Service protection and make the whole executive bureaucracy subject to his every mood,  you think you will ever be able to trust a government number at all? Get a grip.

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Who controls interests rates? 2.5% Mortgage jumped to 6.5% in four years. What business can I blame that on? 

The Fed...

And Trump's promise to micromanage the Federal Reserve is one of the many alarming things he is pushing.

[Tiger337]

Just now, Edman85 said:

The Fed...

And Trump's promise to micromanage the Federal Reserve is one of the many alarming things he is pushing.

There is no doubt he would manipulate it to support Wall Street.  

[Tigeraholic1]

1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

The Fed...

And Trump's promise to micromanage the Federal Reserve is one of the many alarming things he is pushing.

Right, my comment was directed at gov't not party.

[Sports_Freak]

3 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich started all of this.    I don't see any common sense people taking control of the Republican party any time soon.    I think John Kasich was trying a few years ago.    The more pragmatic issue-oriented types have been pushed aside for these extremists and conspiracy theorists and yes RACISTS.    The extremists on the left are kind of kept on the fringes.    It's at the point where most Democrats just roll their eyes and let folks like Tlaib talk themselves tired.     Yes, I believe in some conspiracies.  I'll never buy the JFK assassination story.     Most of my conspiracy beliefs are sports related (David Stern rigged the Patrick Ewing draft,  the Refs were told to pick up the flag against the Cowboys,  Game 6 of the 2002 WCF was rigged for the Lakers).  But those sports are businesses, those are entertainment and they can run their show any way they want.  I'm the sucker for believing it was legit.   

Many people blame Ronald Reagan for the elimination of the Fairness Doctrine that paved the way for Fox News and allowed the media to lie to people;

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fairness-Doctrine

[Motown Bombers]

People want to entrust the economy in the hands of a guy who inherited 400 million, filed 6 bankruptcies, and failed at every business he ever owned. 

[LaceyLou]

1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said:

Many people blame Ronald Reagan for the elimination of the Fairness Doctrine that paved the way for Fox News and allowed the media to lie to people;

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fairness-Doctrine

Yes, people may be more connected but they're also more likely to find themselves consuming news that only focuses on partisan talking points. And lies are spread faster and further. 

[Edman85]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

There is no doubt he would manipulate it to support Wall Street. himself.

 

[LaceyLou]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

People want to entrust the economy in the hands of a guy who inherited 400 million, filed 6 bankruptcies, and failed at every business he ever owned. 

I've been trying to get people to make me understand why they believe this guy is the 'business guy' for the past 10 years, and not one person has given me an answer. 

 

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

 

Correct, through Wall Street!

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Many people blame Ronald Reagan for the elimination of the Fairness Doctrine that paved the way for Fox News and allowed the media to lie to people;

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fairness-Doctrine

The loss of the fairness doctrine was also driven in part by technology. The FCC didn't believe it had any authority to regulate cable TV so they never tried (nothing went over any public airway), so since the fairness doctrine didn't apply to cable, the broadcasters demanded Congress either extend the FCC's mandate there or give them an level playing field. The former never happened and the GOP's pre-disposition was to deregulate anyway.

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Hongbit]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

If it doesn't make sense to you that it's really really hard to be accurate with small changes in huge numbers and the order magnitude issues associated with that there is nothing else I can tell you. The fact that a number is important has zero to do with whether it easy to get! 

And this really goes directly back to why a guy like Trump is do damn dangerous. You rag on BLS now when it's full of career civil servants with civil service protection against the political whims of the party in power. After Trump does away with Civil Service protection and make the whole executive bureaucracy subject to his every mode,  you think you will ever be able to trust a government number at all? Get a grip.

So because it’s a hard thing to do, it’s ok to purposely put out essential data that is often off by 25 - 50%.    That’s ridiculous.    

This has zero to do with Trump for me.  It’s typical Washington bs that’s been going on for decades.    Trump will be gone on Wednesday but these BLS issues will continue as long as people don’t challenge how they collect data.    

BTW, why are you all worked up? Definitely surprised by the tone of your reply.  That got abrasive for no real reason.  Ending with get a grip. Really?  

 

 

[LaceyLou]

20 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The nature of text message campaigns is obscene and needs to be regulated, but these are the ones that are really getting under my skin. This is clearly a Trump group posing as a Harris group to rile up the progressives and get them to flip or stay home. It’s false advertising. I’ve gotten three just like it in the two days.

 

 

Evidently Elon is also allowing fake Harris ads on twitter that are intentionally misleading and thus intended to sway people against her. Scary part is I can see why people think they're real.

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

So because it’s a hard thing to do, it’s ok to purposely put out essential data that is often off by 25 - 50%.    That’s ridiculous.    

This has zero to do with Trump for me.  It’s typical Washington bs that’s been going on for decades.    Trump will be gone on Wednesday but these BLS issues will continue as long as people don’t challenge how they collect data.    

BTW, why are you all worked up? Definitely surprised by the tone of your reply.  That got abrasive for no real reason.  Ending with get a grip. Really?  
 

cool as a cucumber here. Just used "get a grip" as an ordinary awareness idiom. "wake up and smell the coffee" if you find that more neutral.

Edited 1 hour ago by gehringer_2

[romad1]

27 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

No but they are being fooled by a racist Nazi just like the people of Germany were fooled and they still deeply regret it to this day, as they should. Trump wants to be a gangster like Putin or better yet, a deity like Kim Jong Un. Would you want to live in a country like Russia or North Korea? The only reason you're still in a free country now is because there were people in the government who stood up to him and stopped him from doing whatever he wanted as President.

Willing to embrace a fascist.  That’s pretty dumb or craven or fascist. 

[Hongbit]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

cool as a cucumber here. "get a grip" is just an ordinary awareness idiom. "wake up and smell the coffee" if you find that more neutral.

I always took Get a grip to be more abrasive than an ordinary awareness idiom but so be it.  

I think your take is ridiculously wrong and you think that I can’t be helped so maybe that’s where we have to agree to disagree.    

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

cool as a cucumber here. Just used "get a grip" as an ordinary awareness idiom. "wake up and smell the coffee" if you find that more neutral.

but this does take me right back to the issue I do get hot about, which is the need for this society to re-establish the demand for honesty and truth in public discourse. How do we expect to hold a civil servant to a standard of honesty if we elect a frickin' president for whom lying is second nature only to breathing? Democracy cannot function when public falsehood become normative - simply can't. It's really a bigger issue than the arguments about fascism because fascism is just the outcome of the acceptance of public falsehood. It the lagging indicator, not the leader.

Edited 1 hour ago by gehringer_2