2024 Presidential Election thread

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I always took Get a grip to be more abrasive than an ordinary awareness idiom but so be it.  

I think your take is ridiculously wrong and you think that I can’t be helped so maybe that’s where we have to agree to disagree.    

Do a little research into the work BLS does an how they do it. Everyone always assumes stuff they aren't being asked to is easy for those other people doing it.

Look at your prime case here. 250K was revised down to 225K. Either number was a lot more than was expected and either would have generated the same media narrative on its release. To make a reasonable argument of bad faith the revised number should have at least been below 150K, That would have been a fudge that would have affected the media play - not the 25K from 250 to 225. (which is a fricken 0.01% error!). Heck, if BLS was a bad faith actor they wouldn't revise numbers at all in an effort to try and make them better.

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

[Hongbit]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Do a little research into the work BLS does an how they do it. Everyone always assumes stuff they aren't being asked to is easy for those other people doing it.

Look at your prime case here. 250K was revised down to 225K. Either number was a lot more than was expected and would not have changed the media narrative on its release. To make a reasonable argument of bad faith the revised number should have at least been below 100K.

I’ve done more research than you can imagine on this subject and their many surveys and methods they use to collect and report data. This is not the first time I’ve posted about my issues with BLS data.  

The first and easiest change they should make is to not release jobs data on the first Friday of every month.  It’s not enough time to gather accurate numbers. They should push back to 7 or 10 days to get a better initial results pool.

[romad1]

of this i have no doubt. Jared will still find a way to profit off foreign investors.

But,

https://x.com/therickwilson/status/1852454439287677167?s=46&t=76Y1aNflZsD8yrwQrvLC2g

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

The first and easiest change they should make is to not release jobs data on the first Friday of every month.  It’s not enough time to gather accurate numbers. They should push back to 7 or 10 days to get a better initial results pool.

That's a fair critique but a lot different from alleging they are cooking the books.

There are a lot of places where 'flash data' is presented because there are customers for the 1st look. But this is a place where your complaint probably goes to the political appointee level at Labor that has given BLS its mandates when to report. 

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Thanks. I hope we can some day get back to a normal country that does not hate each other. 

The fastest way to get there is to dump Trump. 

[Motown Bombers]

Bill Clinton will be in Orlando where they have a lot of Puerto Ricans. That isn’t by accident. 

 

[romad1]

My son is flying from Detroit to Orlando in a bit and said he saw Trump and Walz’ planes next to each others in tarmac. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Kacie said:

Um...hmmmm, er...uh...yep!  Pretty much. I do hope you're correct about the peaceful transfer to Harris, but I won't hold my breath.  Chances are it's the Trump people who won't get over it and move on.   I may forgive some of the Trump voters that I know,  but I'll never forget. Ever.  What's the saying, when people show you who they are, believe them?  

I don’t think there would fail to be a peaceful transition from Biden to Harris since the killer is not in the house this time. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Bill Clinton will be in Orlando where they have a lot of Puerto Ricans. That isn’t by accident. 

 

After the reams of discussion about how ossified US politics have become, It would certainly be bracing to find out that campaigns can still actually matter!

[Sports_Freak]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

The ONLY time you see Trump laugh is when he's laughing AT somebody.

[chasfh]

59 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The nature of text message campaigns is obscene and needs to be regulated, but these are the ones that are really getting under my skin. This is clearly a Trump group posing as a Harris group to rile up the progressives and get them to flip or stay home. It’s false advertising. I’ve gotten three just like it in the two days.

 

 

I must be doing something right because I have gotten exactly zero texts from candidates pleading for money. 

[LaceyLou]

14 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I haven't seen much coverage of FEMA response to Helene from up here. Could it be that they're seeing help on the ground that those outside of NC are not?

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think there would fail to be a peaceful transition from Biden to Harris since the killer is not in the house this time. 

Peaceful internally and peaceful on the street might be two different things.

If Trump loses and we get cornered rat syndrome with him believing he can't stay out of jail, I don't think it's a particular stretch to believe he would try to incite civil unrest. He's already done it once. Huge difference in that LEO will be ready for it but that doesn't guarantee it might not get damn noisy.

OTOH, maybe we can use it to our advantage. Tell the a few of the really deep red states in the Rockies that are most disconcerted that if don't want to accept the result that we're good if they secede. Make a free airfare to Cheyenne offer for any Trumper that wants to join them.  Make them happy and solves the Senate and electoral college imbalance issues for the rest of us. 45 stars was decent looking flag in 1896.....

Edited 1 hour ago by gehringer_2

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

For a good part of my lifetime, a 6.5% mortgage would have been considered a  good deal, and most boomers probably paid at least that on average over the lifetime of their mortgages. The 15 yrs of very low rates sort of masked the fact that without abnormally low mortgage costs,  housing prices were rising out of reach of too many people. So the issue for housing costs in the US is less mortgage cost than the price of housing. This is a multifaceted problem that has grown up slowly over the years and it touches on zoning, building codes,  transportation policy, urban policy etc. It took a long time to develop and is going to take a while to unwind. To their credit, the Dems are at least talking like they realize housing costs are being driven by shortage, but it's going to take a lot more than down payment subsidies to fix it.

I had to go back to find this post because I have a question. Harris has been talking about building affordable housing because of a housing shortage. Assume she does this and builds many such houses, wouldn't that make my house value to decrease? It seems like it sure would, house prices are high because of limited inventory. 

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Many people blame Ronald Reagan for the elimination of the Fairness Doctrine that paved the way for Fox News and allowed the media to lie to people;

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fairness-Doctrine

Not a fan of Reagan, but it was Limbaugh who created this vitriol.   He started us down this path,  Gingrich with his "Contract ON America" amped it up (and then got out of the way) and reality TV and the horrible behavior of the people on it inspired the type of behavior we see now.  

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Correct. "Low rate lock in" is absolutely freezing the resale market. But for decades we were building 2M+ new units of new housing every year - which was considered sort of the equilibrium requirement. That has fallen way off in the last decade or two. So sure - given the lack of new housing the stiffness in the used market just makes things worse.

Besides it really won't matter if Trump is elected since he has vowed to deport all those who built those new homes built in 2018-2022. Where are they going to find new labor willing to work for lower wages?
 

We probably had about 250 new homes built in our subdivisions (multiple because of different price levels and types). They are clearing land for another 1000 or so, along with adding a new lane to the interstate (one each way) along with an additional intersection.

Somebody must be supplying demand or these would be off the drawing board by now. I realize a significant number are retirees moving south, several Florida and South Carolina "halfbacks" and a number of folks from NOVA who find it easier to take the train or commute on the couple of days a week they need to be in the office. Prices aren't rising as fast as they did 2020-2022 my our house is still worth considerably more than what we paid.

 

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I had to go back to find this post because I have a question. Harris has been talking about building affordable housing because of a housing shortage. Assume she does this and builds many such houses, wouldn't that make my house value to decrease? It seems like it sure would, house prices are high because of limited inventory. 

So the rest of us take one for the team? 

The argument would be that currently there are externalities adding to building costs which have uncoupled housing prices from direct construction cost, which if removed, would increase market driven construction. The market says the the proper balance of factors creating the value of your house should neither be driven down by the government overbuilding housing sold at below cost nor driven up by government created bottlenecks (regulations or whatever) creating an artificial shortage. But for sure, if you hold an artificially inflated asset of any kind you are always at risk of it coming back to earth whether it be your house, a bitcoin, or an Nvidia share.......😉

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Besides it really won't matter if Trump is elected since he has vowed to deport all those who built those new homes built in 2018-2022. Where are they going to find new labor willing to work for lower wages?

Bingo. Not to mention that without immigration, the US population would probably start falling, which would likely make real estate of just about any kind except water front a bad long term investment.

[LaceyLou]

Even waterfront may not be a solid choice. Erosion is a big issue, and some waterfront areas are already being abandoned by insurance companies (due to both erosion and big hits from recent weather events).

[CMRivdogs]

Quick switch from housing cost to health care. Personal note, I was diagnosed with ILD (Interstitial Lung Disease) about three years ago. Was told eventually I would probably require a transplant. The doctor also prescribed a drug that run over $15,000 a month without insurance. With Medicare and additional insurance it still was running nearly $700 once I hit maximum deductions. Back in January the out of pocket price dropped to $O.

if I need a transplant pre insurance costs would run a $ or more. Fortunately Medicare and private insurance would probably lower out of pocket costs to housing (6 months to a year)

I doubt that would be happening under Trump and Republicans

Yes, I voted my pocketbook 

[Sports_Freak]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

So the rest of us take one for the team? 

The argument would be that currently there are externalities adding to building costs which have uncoupled housing prices from direct construction cost, which if removed, would increase market driven construction. The market says the the proper balance of factors creating the value of your house should neither be driven down by the government overbuilding housing sold at below cost nor driven up by government created bottlenecks (regulations or whatever) creating an artificial shortage. But for sure, if you hold an artificially inflated asset of any kind you are always at risk of it coming back to earth whether it be your house, a bitcoin, or an Nvidia share.......😉

Basic supply and demand? 100 houses to choose from for one buyer compared to 1 house for 100 buyers to bid on. Luckily, I have major equity built into my home. But people with a 300k mortgage and suddenly the home is only worth 100k? Banks could call in a loan at any time, putting people out on the street. I know this is just an extreme but it's what I thought of when I heard her talk about building "affordable" housing. Flood the market with homes and it could (would) lower the value of pre-owned homes.

[smr-nj]

8 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Quick switch from housing cost to health care. Personal note, I was diagnosed with ILD (Interstitial Lung Disease) about three years ago. Was told eventually I would probably require a transplant. The doctor also prescribed a drug that run over $15,000 a month without insurance. With Medicare and additional insurance it still was running nearly $700 once I hit maximum deductions. Back in January the out of pocket price dropped to $O.

if I need a transplant pre insurance costs would run a $ or more. Fortunately Medicare and private insurance would probably lower out of pocket costs to housing (6 months to a year)

I doubt that would be happening under Trump and Republicans

Yes, I voted my pocketbook 

I’m sorry for your medical issues, but for sure hope that your future medical costs will come under a Democratic administration.  
I know that my sister & her husband will benefit from the pharmaceutical cap that happens next year for meds they need to survive.

[Sports_Freak]

7 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Quick switch from housing cost to health care. Personal note, I was diagnosed with ILD (Interstitial Lung Disease) about three years ago. Was told eventually I would probably require a transplant. The doctor also prescribed a drug that run over $15,000 a month without insurance. With Medicare and additional insurance it still was running nearly $700 once I hit maximum deductions. Back in January the out of pocket price dropped to $O.

if I need a transplant pre insurance costs would run a $ or more. Fortunately Medicare and private insurance would probably lower out of pocket costs to housing (6 months to a year)

I doubt that would be happening under Trump and Republicans

Yes, I voted my pocketbook 

As you should. I've been saying that the democrats plans to cap 'scripts to a max of 2k a year is a huge deal. Same as their plan to eliminate medical debt. I heard Biden say nobody should lose their life saving for an illness/surgery. And correct, Trump could care less. Eliminating the ACA would be a disaster for millions of current patients and future people who get sick. Another reason I strongly dislike MAGA.