2024 Presidential Election thread

[1776]

4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

A 3rd party vote is a vote for Trump.

FYI.

I would suggest it would depend on who the third party candidate is. 
I will not vote for Trump or Biden. 

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think Bidfen knows he has to do something about the border.  Nobody is ever going to do anything about the debt because that requires denying people stuff and no side is going to do that.  You can't win votes if you don't promise stuff.  

All they need to do is...

Balance the budget.

That requires bipartisanship, and both limits on spending AS WELL AS tax increases. 

Guess who's going to block that from happening?

Hint: (it ain't Biden, or Democrats...).

[ewsieg]

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

All they need to do is...

Balance the budget.

That requires bipartisanship, and both limits on spending AS WELL AS tax increases. 

Guess who's going to block that from happening?

Hint: (it ain't Biden, or Democrats...).

What makes you think the Democrats wouldn't block that as well?  

[mtutiger]

22 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

what's bonkers is that Biden has had so many wins, and bi-partisan wins. People claim that is what they want - someone who can reach across the aisle and get things done. at worst, he is an average president, and considering a vile, life-long grifter is the other choice, incomprehensible to me that Biden is not lapping the field. I don't know how to have Biden get more credit for what he's done.

I remain hopeful that when it comes down to this: an uninspired choice vs. the worst possible choice - Biden will win that binary decision easily; but frankly, its 50/50 right now, and that says a lot about the future of the country, and it is not looking good

In my view, the polls demonstrate that age is his biggest issue... views on Trump haven't improved in any of these polls, but rather it's almost like he is being treated like a "Generic Republican", particularly with younger voters who would clearly like to move onto something else.

What concerns me is that, unlike certain issues coming and going from the public consciousness or even just policy course corrections to respond to weaknesses on certain issues (which you're starting to see more of in a couple of areas), there isn't much that can be done about his age. None of us can ever reverse the turn of time.

Ultimately as rough a go as things have been, I don't see Biden being even with young people come 2024.... they will come home to a degree. But still, the polls shouldn't be ignored either. And if I were in his shoes, I'd be thinking long and hard about how 'fixable' his problems are.

Edited November 6, 2023 by mtutiger

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

What makes you think the Democrats wouldn't block that as well?  

They wouldn't.

I know these things...

[Tiger337]

9 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Trump will be sinking like a rock as most Americans come to their senses 

Good luck with that!  They'll just keep believing everything he says.  

[mtutiger]

I would also like to reiterate that there is a power that comes with incumbency, and that if Biden steps aside, that advantage goes away. Particularly if there ends up being a competitive primary.

Just think people are overlooking that when they fantasize about alternatives.

[mtutiger]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Good luck with that!  They'll just keep believing everything he says.  

Most Americans still do not like Donald Trump and don't necessarily believe everything he says.

Him doing better than Biden in these polls doesn't inherently make him popular.

[ewsieg]

2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

They wouldn't.

I know these things...

I'm glad your smart, but again, can you point to any evidence where the democrats would be willing to cut anything.  I know recent history would indicate that vocally, they might be willing to cut defense spending, but 1) they never actually have and 2) they are war hawks now, they are the ones that are pushing for more spending there.

[RatkoVarda]

20 minutes ago, 1776 said:

I would suggest it would depend on who the third party candidate is. 
I will not vote for Trump or Biden. 

Voting 3rd party, not voting, and voting for Trump are all the same thing.

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Most Americans still do not like Donald Trump and don't necessarily believe everything he says.

Him doing better than Biden in these polls doesn't inherently make him popular.

Case in point (from a different poll).

The Siena polls are terrible for Biden, but they saya lot more about Biden's standing at the moment than Trump IMO

[Tiger337]

Just now, mtutiger said:

Most Americans still do not like Donald Trump and don't necessarily believe everything he says.

Him doing better than Biden in these polls doesn't inherently make him popular.

Of course, he's not popular personally, but there are still are a lot of people that think he's good for the country. I would wager that the majority of white males think he's not THAT bad of a person, not bad enough where they will dismiss him politically.  Sure, he's an idiot and a douche, but he's a businessman and he's good for the economy!!!  He's tough and he gets things done!!! I know a bunch of people like that.  Enough Americans like Trump where he won't "sink" like Echoes claims.  We've been waiting for that to happen for 8 years and it it's not happening.    

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Case in point (from a different poll).

The Siena polls are terrible for Biden, but they saya lot more about Biden's standing at the moment than Trump IMO

Now do Congress. 

[RatkoVarda]

if someone really cared about spending or the national debt (2 separate but related issues), you only have to look at Clinton-Obama-Biden vs. Bush-Trump, to see what party consistently does better on these issues

but there is no large group of voters who really care about these issues, which every Washington pol knows, which is why we have the government we have

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, RatkoVarda said:

if someone really cared about spending or the national debt (2 separate but related issues), you only have to look at Clinton-Obama-Biden vs. Bush-Trump, to see what party consistently does better on these issues

but there is no large group of voters who really care about these issues, which every Washington pol knows, which is why we have the government we have

I think a lot of voters pretend to care about the debt, but don't want to be the one who has to give up stuff up to get it under control.  

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Now do Congress. 

Nah, I don't see the relevancy in a discussion about Donald Trump's popularity with the general public.

[Tiger337]

Just now, mtutiger said:

Nah, I don't see the relevancy in a discussion about Donald Trump's popularity with the general public.

The relevancy is that they don't favor politicians in general.  

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The relevancy is that they don't favor politicians in general.  

The very same poll that we are talking about, in 5 of the 6 states, had Nikki Haley doing better than Trump, and had Generic Republican doing 10-15% better than Trump in matchups against Biden.

It's an overread of the data to look at the results and conclude that is says anything about Trump's popularity. 

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

[Tiger337]

Just now, mtutiger said:

The very same poll that we are talking about, in 5 of the 6 states, had Nikki Haley doing better than Trump, and had Generic Republican doing 10-15% better than Trump in matchups against Biden.

It's an overread of the data to look at the results and conclude that is says anything about Trump's popularity. 

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

yet, he is still killing them in the primary voter polls.  

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

yet, he is still killing them in the primary voter polls.  

Right, because Republicans primary voters (who aren't a representative sampling of the overall American electorate) like the guy.

Edited November 6, 2023 by mtutiger

[Tiger337]

Just now, mtutiger said:

Right, because Republicans primary voters (who aren't a representative sampling of the overall American electorate) like the guy.

I don't think he has lost any "popularity" in 8 years.  He's the same guy that won in 2016 and was too close for comfort in 2020.  

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think he has lost any "popularity" in 8 years.  He's the same guy that won in 2016 and was too close for comfort in 2020.  

The general contours are the same, no doubt.

I'm just not going to pretend he's an electoral powerhouse like FDR when he's clearly not. He has liabilities too.

Edited November 6, 2023 by mtutiger

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Good luck with that!  They'll just keep believing everything he says.  

 

Trump's big payback: The plot for MAGA's revenge should scare voters straight

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-big-payback-plot-magas-140001797.html

 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

I'm glad your smart, but again, can you point to any evidence where the democrats would be willing to cut anything.  I know recent history would indicate that vocally, they might be willing to cut defense spending, but 1) they never actually have and 2) they are war hawks now, they are the ones that are pushing for more spending there.

Democrats will be all too eager to:

1) Increase the social security income-level taxation amount from wherever it is right now ($125K, or is that an old #?), up to... unlimited would be great but Republicans won't go for that. That resolves funding for social security. If we did indeed have unlimited income-levels, we could actually REDUCE the ss tax RATE which would lower taxes for lower and middle incomes and increase ss taxes ONLY for those above the new breakeven line of the new tax rate/ income-level that matched the old tax rate/ max income level of $125K.

2) Increase min business tax rate from 21% to 24% (the 24% rate is what chambers of commerce REQUESTED in the 2017 tax cuts but for whatever reason Trump-alone demanded it at 21%...). Also, a minimum annual rate of 15% REGARDLESS of prior year loss carry-forwards, etc... They will agree to cutting spending elsewhere if they get these as part of the balanced budget deal.

3) Reduction in Inheritance Tax limits (IE: from $12 mill+ subject to inheritance tax down to $5 mill+ subject to inheritance tax...), as an offset to increased State and Local Tax limits.

Etc...

They'll bargain. Yes, they'll try to protect as much social spending as they can but... if you mix tax increases with spending cuts that gets bipartisan backing... They'll buy into it.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Of course, he's not popular personally, but there are still are a lot of people that think he's good for the country. I would wager that the majority of white males think he's not THAT bad of a person, not bad enough where they will dismiss him politically.  Sure, he's an idiot and a douche, but he's a businessman and he's good for the economy!!!  He's tough and he gets things done!!! I know a bunch of people like that.  Enough Americans like Trump where he won't "sink" like Echoes claims.  We've been waiting for that to happen for 8 years and it it's not happening.    

It already did.

In 2020.