2024 Presidential Election thread

[MichiganCardinal]

I drafted my presumptive final draft map prediction yesterday and it included a blue Iowa. I'm salty Selzer beat me to the punch.

[MichiganCardinal]

I'll post it now, subject to change before Tuesday.

[LaceyLou]

1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I'll post it now, subject to change before Tuesday.

It would restore some of my faith in my country if this happens. It'll take a while to completely regain my faith... and if he wins I think it's gone forever.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

There won't be a next Trump.  He's a freak who has totally conned 40% of the electorate.  If there is one, I hope they expose him a lot more quickly.

I have no problem wth the media supporting a conservative candidate who is intelligent and sane.  I wouldn't vote for that person, but I would consider them qualified.  

 

I think it's possible that if Trump loses things may start to even out a little. The center left is already pushing back against the lefty left at places like Universities and if Trump takes them to a second defeat we will probably see the center right push back against the righty right. Maybe.

[smr-nj]

2 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

It would restore some of my faith in my country if this happens. It'll take a while to completely regain my faith... and if he wins I think it's gone forever.

While I would/will be happy if/when this occurs, I have to be honest and say that I don’t think I can ever regain my faith.  I’m feeling like it’s been broken beyond repair, which truly bothers me…. I don’t want to live the rest of my life with this mindset, but I think this is my truth.

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

I wonder if a significant number of farmers in Iowa have factored in how a tariff war would impact their livelihood. 

this. They know they will be the first target of the inevitable retaliation. We haven't talked much about it but that is a factor that could play big in MN, WI,  but also Ohio as well.

[LaceyLou]

Just now, smr-nj said:

While I would/will be happy if/when this occurs, I have to be honest and say that I don’t think I can ever regain my faith.  I’m feeling like it’s been broken beyond repair, which truly bothers me…. I don’t want to live the rest of my life with this mindset, but I think this is my truth.

I understand. I sometimes wonder why I still have faith. 

My bf is from Guatemala. A good chunk of my coworkers for the past 20 years have been from Latin America, Haiti-oh let's be honest from most of the world. I've seen how much they all contribute not only to the workplace, but to their adopted country. How people can just hate them is something I'll never understand. 

 

[Motown Bombers]

[Motown Bombers]

I wonder if this shift in the plains states in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas is because of Trump’s calls to deport immigrants? These states rely on immigrants for their farms. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

You are right. Once Trump loses we can hopefully get back to sanity. I just would like to avoid RW violence. Many will lean on stuff like this and call foul.
 

Wednesday can not get here soon enough.

Unless Kamala completely smokes Trump, like, wins Iowa and/or Florida and/or Ohio, this won't be done Wednesday.

[mtutiger]

42 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

I wonder if a significant number of farmers in Iowa have factored in how a tariff war would impact their livelihood. 

Yes.

[mtutiger]

Look, I don't think she's going to win Iowa, Selzer's poll is a clear outlier... but you cannot deny the direction that outlier is going or the degree. If she's even off by 5-6 points, it's still a Godawful result for DJT.

I truly think she found something here, at least based off my own personal experiences. How much that corresponds to parts of Wisconsin or other states in areas where there are heavy WWC demos remains to be seen.

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Yes.

Not to count chickens - but It would be a hoot if the error in polling turned out to be that the rural farm vote  turns against Trump - probably the one thing no one expected or would believe even if they were seeing it.

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, mtutiger said:

Look, I don't think she's going to win Iowa, Selzer's poll is a clear outlier... but you cannot deny the direction that outlier is going or the degree. If she's even off by 5-6 points, it's still a Godawful result for DJT.

I truly think she found something here, at least based off my own personal experiences. How much that corresponds to parts of Wisconsin or other states in areas where there are heavy WWC demos remains to be seen.

Her polls before this were showing Harris over performing. We also have polls showing Harris over performing in Nebraska and Kansas. It wasn’t that long ago that democrats won Iowa. 

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Not to count chickens - but It would be a hoot if the error in polling turned out to be that the rural farm vote  turns against Trump - probably the one thing no one expected or would believe even if they were seeing it.

I drove past two farms in rural Kankakee/Will County IL earlier today with big Harris-Walz displays...

It's not epochal or anything, but something is going on.... people are willing to put it out there, stick their neck out in a way they didn't previously.

Edited November 3, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

This seems more realistic to me, yet equally devastating if it is real.... 

Edited November 3, 2024 by mtutiger

[1776]

I hope, in a big way, a winner is declared very shortly after Tuesday. It would be great to have a winner by midnight Tuesday but I’m not banking on that. If this thing drags out…
 

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

This seems more realistic to me, yet equally devastating if it is real.... 

LOL - so if these are both good polls we aggregate them and get Trump +2. Which as you point out, is still a disastrous number for Trump.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Atlas Intel was apparently the most accurate pollster in 2020 per 538. They have a clean sweep for Trump in every swing state. Gulp!

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

LOL - so if these are both good polls we aggregate them and get Trump +2. Which as you point out, is still a disastrous number for Trump.

Pretty much.

This is the thing I don't get... from a media standpoint, we have had countless articles and thinkpieces about the Barstool Bros and Young Men (including Black and Hispanic Men).... yet nobody bothered to ask about the demos that make up so much of WI/MI/PA... the WWC or where there head might be at about all this stuff. Particularly WWC women.

It's insane to me. It almost seems like there are ulterior motives given the obvious story that exists.

Edited November 3, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Atlas Intel was apparently the most accurate pollster in 2020 per 538. They have a clean sweep for Trump in every swing state. Gulp!

I'll trust J. Ann Selzer and her outlier over the Brazilians who can't even get races in Brazil correct.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

I'll trust J. Ann Selzer and her outlier over the Brazilians who can't even get races in Brazil correct.

538 called them the most accurate pollster of 2020 though. There's something to that no?

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

538 called them the most accurate pollster of 2020 though. There's something to that no?

No there isn’t since 538 is off and uses junk polls. I think Atlas was the pollster who did a poll of Pennsylvania and didn’t include Philadelphia. 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Pretty much.

This is the thing I don't get... we have had countless articles and thinkpieces about the Barstool Bros and Young Men (including Black and Hispanic Men).... yet nobody bothered to ask about the demos that make up so much of WI/MI/PA... the WWC or where there head might be at about all this stuff. 

It's insane to me.

If it's real, it will be because your average mid-western farmer probably knows a lot more macroeconomics than your average MSM political reporter.

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If it's real, it will be because your average mid-western farmer probably knows a lot more macroeconomics than your average MSM political reporter.

Maybe this is a conversation better had after the votes are cast, but people really need to stop stereotyping and understand that the demographics that swung heavily toward Trump in 2016 may not have the same relationship with him today.

I'm not saying it's a lot of folks, but not everybody feels the same way that they did then. And it may impact actual voting behavior. But there's a tendency if you don't spend time in rural America to assume that perceptions don't change, and that's not necessarily true.

Edited November 3, 2024 by mtutiger