2024 Presidential Election thread

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I wanted to share an anecdotal story from door knocking this morning. I knocked on a door and the lady who answered is probably early to mid-40s. She let me know right away that she is Puerto Rican-American. She also let me know that her and her daughter are voting for Harris because of what was said at the MSG rally about Puerto Rico by Trump's people. It seems to be breaking through. 

Edited Sunday at 04:11 PM by Mr.TaterSalad

[MichiganCardinal]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I wanted to share an anecdotal story from door knocking this morning. I knocked on a door and the lady who answered is probably early to mid-40s. She let me know right away that she is Puerto-Rican-American. She also let me know that her and her daughter are voting for Harris because of what was said at the MSG rally about Puerto Rico by Trump's people. It seems to be breaking through. 

Kudos to you for door knocking.

[CMRivdogs]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Didn't even think about it, but tariffs could be a factor in his apparent weakness in the plains states too... 

Tariffs are basically poison for farmers across the cornbelt

Throw in admissions by current Republican leaders including Speaker Johnson Thad we can expect cuts in Social Security, health care among others that affect senior citizens could weigh in to groups that usually vote more conservatively.

[CMRivdogs]

Duplicate 

Edited Sunday at 04:18 PM by CMRivdogs

[CMRivdogs]

Duplicate post

Edited Sunday at 04:16 PM by CMRivdogs

[LaceyLou]

3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Throw in admissions by current Republican leaders including Speaker Johnson Thad we can expect cuts in Social Security, health care among others that affect senior citizens could weigh in to groups that usually vote more conservatively.

This, and it's estimated that T's policies will lead to a crisis in SS in six years-earlier than now expected. Six years is about the time that the oldest Gen Xers will begin to retire.

I really wish my generation would pay more attention to this, but I feel like Gen X is the generation most likely to support him right now.

[LaceyLou]

14 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I wanted to share an anecdotal story from door knocking this morning. I knocked on a door and the lady who answered is probably early to mid-40s. She let me know right away that she is Puerto Rican-American. She also let me know that her and her daughter are voting for Harris because of what was said at the MSG rally about Puerto Rico by Trump's people. It seems to be breaking through. 

I hope so. I can't help but be disappointed by people who don't see it until they themselves are targeted, but whatever it takes.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

11 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Throw in admissions by current Republican leaders including Speaker Johnson Thad we can expect cuts in Social Security, health care among others that affect senior citizens could weigh in to groups that usually vote more conservatively.

Trump said Elon Musk is going to be in charge of cutting government spending. He said that he's having a role in his admin for Elon to monitor government agencies and spending. Musk then came out and said he wants $2 TRILLION in spending cuts to federal spending. There is no way you can cut $2 TRILLION in federal spending without touching social welfare programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, S-Chip, TANF, and on. They are going to defacto cut Social Security by jacking up the retirement age and making it harder for people to qualify for SSID (disability benefits).

Edited Sunday at 04:23 PM by Mr.TaterSalad

[LaceyLou]

I actually thought it was even more-3 trillion. 

As I said earlier in this thread, does that mean we get all the money he accepted from the government for SpaceX back? Probably not.

[CMRivdogs]

Having Musk and RFKjr anywhere near the administration is a suicide pact with America 

[CMRivdogs]

https://x.com/ec_schneider/status/1853110206323974606
 

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Dr. Michael Bitzer

@BowTiePolitics

NC Early In-Person Votes: White vs. Black compared to 2020 same day NC White non-Hispanic voters are ~500K ahead of same day 2020 total NC Black non-Hispanic votes are now ahead of their same day 2020 total--first time in 2024 early voting #ncpol #Election2024

 

[Edman85]

15 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Having Musk and RFKjr anywhere near the administration is a suicide pact with America 

Hopefully the same is true of the campaign.

[LaceyLou]

Any thoughts? 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/swing-state-mrp-mega-poll-00186941?fbclid=IwY2xjawGUh-dleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHbLqnc-Xx5nxCmrhCUG9BPPwTA43Y45CXWzumc7C-6Pi7bXFlhpP3fgA7g_aem_-OcIjlsHrqNwME0bZmvBOw

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

Any thoughts? 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/swing-state-mrp-mega-poll-00186941?fbclid=IwY2xjawGUh-dleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHbLqnc-Xx5nxCmrhCUG9BPPwTA43Y45CXWzumc7C-6Pi7bXFlhpP3fgA7g_aem_-OcIjlsHrqNwME0bZmvBOw

Older white women are another standout from this poll. 

[romad1]

58 minutes ago, oblong said:

In TN I saw Blackburn ads where she threw “China” on the floor in an effort to show she will fight China  

 

That’s as dumb as she is.

[The Ronz]

32 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

I really wish my generation would pay more attention to this, but I feel like Gen X is the generation most likely to support him right now.

They do.

I'm Gen X.

Every Gen X person I know regardless of race, color, creed, sex, whatever are voting for Trump.

[CMRivdogs]

Just now, romad1 said:

Older white women are another standout from this poll. 

The thing to remember about this is that when Rowe vs Wade was decided most of these women were in their early to mid 20s. They are now in their late 60s to early/mid 70s. To quote the old cigarette commercial "They've come a long way" they also endured a lot of discrimination from the "good ole boy" networks,

You bet they ain't going back

[CMRivdogs]

We just had a small family gathering, my wife, her sister and daughter, and our son. The only Trump supporter in the conversation is my niece's boyfriend (who wasn't with us). He recently received his US citizenship papers (he's from Mexico)

He was having trouble filling out his mail-in ballot in NC. My neice refused to help him. Of course this was happening when he kept calling while we were all busy doing other things.

[LaceyLou]

10 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

The thing to remember about this is that when Rowe vs Wade was decided most of these women were in their early to mid 20s. They are now in their late 60s to early/mid 70s. To quote the old cigarette commercial "They've come a long way" they also endured a lot of discrimination from the "good ole boy" networks,

You bet they ain't going back

It's not just that, many of them remember a time when they couldn't get a credit card or mortgage without a man to cosign. I believe other bank accounts were off limits to them also. I'm seeing that this is the 50th anniversary of women being able to obtain these things.

[MichiganCardinal]

28 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Having Musk and RFKjr anywhere near the administration is a suicide pact with America 

Semi-bold prediction: Musk will be indicted on federal charges by 2028, if Harris is elected.

He's on the same trajectory as Rudy. Once revered, he's selling his soul to the devil, and thinks he's untouchable. It might be tax fraud, might be more SEC violations, might be related to this election. But he's dirty, and this DOJ has shown they aren't afraid to go after big names doing illegal ****.

[LaceyLou]

1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Semi-bold prediction: Musk will be indicted on federal charges by 2028, if Harris is elected.

He's on the same trajectory as Rudy. Once revered, he's selling his soul to the devil, and thinks he's untouchable. It might be tax fraud, might be more SEC violations, might be related to this election. But he's dirty, and this DOJ has shown they aren't afraid to go after big names doing illegal ****.

If Drumpf is elected, sooner or later they'll have a falling out, and Musk will be surprised to see himself deported.

[CMRivdogs]

Just now, LaceyLou said:

It's not just that, many of them remember a time when they couldn't get a credit card or mortgage without a man to cosign. I believe other bank accounts were off limits to them also. I'm seeing that this is the 50th anniversary of women being able to obtain these things.

Exactly, heck in the mid 1990s my wife walked into an auto dealership in a Chicago suburb to look at a new car. It would be the car she would be driving most. She held a prominent management position where she worked.

The salesman told her to come back with her husband

[CMRivdogs]

2 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Semi-bold prediction: Musk will be indicted on federal charges by 2028, if Harris is elected.

He's on the same trajectory as Rudy. Once revered, he's selling his soul to the devil, and thinks he's untouchable. It might be tax fraud, might be more SEC violations, might be related to this election. But he's dirty, and this DOJ has shown they aren't afraid to go after big names doing illegal ****.

I've seen unsubstantiated reports he may be here illegally. 

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

This thread is insane.... like, we spent months and months having the NYT put out writeups definitively declaring what was or wasn't happening in the electorate, only to end up with this mishmash of hedges and caveats?

I can understand Cohn's problem. I've read a number of his columns this cycle and no doubt the nearer we get to Tuesday, the more he is despairing of polling having any validity in this cycle, but that's a hard thing to come to terms with when your value as an analyst depends on having something worth analyzing.

Edited Sunday at 05:25 PM by gehringer_2

[romad1]

There are people who are in the Nat security field who support Trump but they are not intellectually curious or likely to be crème of the crop talent.

https://x.com/johnculver689/status/1852847764306305472?s=46&t=76Y1aNflZsD8yrwQrvLC2g