2024 Presidential Election thread

[MichiganCardinal]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Ann Selzer cannot quite get me there on Iowa, but directionally I think she's right....

I think Iowa will take weeks to determine, but ultimately won't matter.

[oblong]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Ann Selzer cannot quite get me there on Iowa, but directionally I think she's right....

Isn’t the real questions whether any error on her part is large enough to not mean something anyway?  A 5 point error still tells a story doesn’t it?   And the follow up question is whether that’s something isolated to Iowa or at least other non industrial Midwest states or does it indicate things in Wisconsin and PA?

[mtutiger]

14 minutes ago, oblong said:

Isn’t the real questions whether any error on her part is large enough to not mean something anyway?  A 5 point error still tells a story.  And the follow up question is whether that’s something isolated to Iowa or at least other non industrial Midwest states? 

Exactly, she'd have to be off by a significant margin for Trump to match his margin from 2020. And while local issues could be a factor (Selzer suggested this as a possibility talking to The Bulwark, particularly the state implementing a 6 week abortion ban hasn't gone over well), it's very hard to think that the demographics of Iowa doesn't maybe tell a story about what the Driftless Area of Wisconsin might be thinking, for instance.

My thought on Trump probably still winning / being favored in Iowa is mostly the idea that the undecideds in her poll are probably are a more Trump-friendly pool of voters than Harris-friendly pool.... but even then, he probably falls short of 2020 performance. 

Edited November 4, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

https://x.com/migold/status/1853449214488871279

Setting aside the empty seats, the amount of time that Trump is spending in NC seems like such a red flag to me

[gehringer_2]

14 hours ago, romad1 said:

Very worthy.  David French is not quite my political brand (too evangelical) 

He's a good study in how the objective rationality in which the human species takes so much pride is so often actually just the outcome an underlying 'decision' of the emotional/lizard brain. Even as a respected constitutional laywer, French could justify everything inside the GOP as long he he was experiencing the glow of group membership in his sect. But when he found himself outcast by the sect over Trump and the emotional fix was withdrawn, then suddenly everything became clear to him. I don't mean to pick on French because he's just one example of the what is the more common human condition. At least he did figure it out while he was still breathing and has apparently joined the good guys.

Edited November 4, 2024 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

15 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Never saw this film - but Google Lens to the rescue.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

Never saw this film - but Google Lens to the rescue.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist in real life, but 1970s conspiracy films are a guilty pleasure lol

[romad1]

I’m currently in Desantis-land at disneyworld.  It’s a place of closeted gays, teen pregnancy and no immigration.  

[romad1]

Just now, romad1 said:

I’m currently in Desantis-land at disneyworld.  It’s a place of closeted gays, teen pregnancy and no immigration.  

The rides are weird.

[Motown Bombers]

38 minutes ago, oblong said:

Isn’t the real questions whether any error on her part is large enough to not mean something anyway?  A 5 point error still tells a story doesn’t it?   And the follow up question is whether that’s something isolated to Iowa or at least other non industrial Midwest states or does it indicate things in Wisconsin and PA?

A reliable poll had Trump up only 5 in Kansas, she’s polling about 5 points better than Biden in the Omaha district, and Trump was only +3 in Ohio. I’m keeping my eye on Ohio. The blue areas there have seen 2008 level turnout in early vote. Keep in mind, Iowa was a blue state not that long ago and hasn’t been as red as states like Nebraska and Kansas. 

[CMRivdogs]

https://x.com/jmart/status/1853478147825480182?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw
 

The sheer volume is the super power...

Via @jonathanchait 

Imagine if we discovered tapes of Jeffrey Epstein calling Joe Biden one of his best friends! It would have destroyed Biden’s candidacy. The Harris campaign and most of Trump’s critics have ignored this for the same reason most of Trump’s offenses have been forgotten: Nobody has enough room in their head to contain them all.

nymag.com/intelligencer/…

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

A reliable poll had Trump up only 5 in Kansas, she’s polling about 5 points better than Biden in the Omaha district, and Trump was only +3 in Ohio. I’m keeping my eye on Ohio. The blue areas there have seen 2008 level turnout in early vote. Keep in mind, Iowa was a blue state not that long ago and hasn’t been as red as states like Nebraska and Kansas. 

The other thing which sort of sits in the background because you can't really measure it is just that it's very hard in American politics to win an office you've run for and lost. There is an underlying 'loser's' bias against you. Now granted the fact that Trump won before losing takes away some of that, but I think there is still going to be the basic "he's old news" sentiment percolating below the conscious level that works against him with the low intensity/late breaking voter. Nixon did win after losing - but just barely and it was two cycles later, plus '68 was a black swan election because of Wallace and Dems self destructing over VN.

[Tiger337]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The other thing which sort of sits in the background because you can't really measure it is just that it's very hard in American politics to win an office you've run for and lost. There is an underlying 'loser's' bias against you. Now granted the fact that Trump won before losing takes away some of that, but I think there is still going to be the basic "he's old news" sentiment percolating below the conscious level that works against him with the low intensity/late breaking voter. Nixon did win after losing - but just barely and it was two cycles later, plus '68 was a black swan election because of Wallace and Dems self destructing over VN.

Joe Biden lost badly twice before getting eleced.  

[LaceyLou]

33 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

A reliable poll had Trump up only 5 in Kansas, she’s polling about 5 points better than Biden in the Omaha district, and Trump was only +3 in Ohio. I’m keeping my eye on Ohio. The blue areas there have seen 2008 level turnout in early vote. Keep in mind, Iowa was a blue state not that long ago and hasn’t been as red as states like Nebraska and Kansas. 

I was seeing clips of very long lines in Franklin County yesterday at the time the polls were due to close. It's worth noting that the most populous county in Ohio only had one early voting location, same as the least populated. 

I wonder if all the people still in line ended up being able to vote?

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Joe Biden lost badly twice before getting eleced.  

Biden lost primaries. He never lost a presidential election. 

[LaceyLou]

37 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The other thing which sort of sits in the background because you can't really measure it is just that it's very hard in American politics to win an office you've run for and lost. There is an underlying 'loser's' bias against you. Now granted the fact that Trump won before losing takes away some of that, but I think there is still going to be the basic "he's old news" sentiment percolating below the conscious level that works against him with the low intensity/late breaking voter. Nixon did win after losing - but just barely and it was two cycles later, plus '68 was a black swan election because of Wallace and Dems self destructing over VN.

The only President I can think of who lost a bid for a second term but was elected again 4 years later is Grover Cleveland. That's going back quite a ways!

Edited November 4, 2024 by LaceyLou

[Motown Bombers]

Most one term presidents who lose, like Carter, Ford, and HW Bush, have the good sense to just go off into the sunset and enjoy life as a former president. 

[smr-nj]

A friend of mine who moved/retired with her husband to South Carolina a year (or 2?) ago was sent this by another friend…

I think everyone can relate.

[oblong]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Most one term presidents who lose, like Carter, Ford, and HW Bush, have the good sense to just go off into the sunset and enjoy life as a former president. 

Carter got smoked so he’s out. HW was on the older side, relatively speaking. He had a long public service career anyway. Ford was looking towards retirement anyway before becoming VP, he wanted to make some money, and did kind of run in ‘80. Not explicitly but it got to the point where discussions on a “co presidency” with Reagan were had. Wouldn’t have worked but they had them. When Bush got the call in Detroit to visit with Reagan he had no idea what was going on. He was ready to go back to Houston to get into business again. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

12 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Most one term presidents who lose, like Carter, Ford, and HW Bush, have the good sense to just go off into the sunset and enjoy life as a former president. 

Most of them haven't committed felony offenses either. Whereby they need to run and win to keep themselves out of legal terrible l troubles. 

[LaceyLou]

I don't remember much about Ford, but I think we all know that Carter made a lot of contributions to his country and society after his term. Bush Sr. and Clinton also did a lot of joint ventures as ex-Presidents. 

[Shades of Deivi Cruz]

34 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

I was seeing clips of very long lines in Franklin County yesterday at the time the polls were due to close. It's worth noting that the most populous county in Ohio only had one early voting location, same as the least populated. 

I wonder if all the people still in line ended up being able to vote?

I happened to drive past the Lucas County early voting location at 1:00 yesterday afternoon, and the line of cars trying to turn in there was enormous. 

[mtutiger]

45 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

The only President I can think of who lost a bid for a second term but was elected again 4 years later is Grover Cleveland. That's going back quite a ways!

William Jennings Bryan is another possible comparison from history - perhaps closer given that he lost the popular vote three times.

[Tiger337]

53 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Biden lost primaries. He never lost a presidential election. 

He still lost though.  Losing a primary made him an even bigger loser(at the time) than losing an election.  

Harris also has a chance to win an election after being a big primary loser.  

[CMRivdogs]

https://x.com/jmart/status/1853457631764983854?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw
 

perhaps the most telling sign of the last 72 hours, even the biggest Democratic worrywarts are sounding optimistic
 

Maybe most striking is the sense that GA or NC could be in reach.  Was hard to find Dems two weeks ago who truly thought either was likely
 

I’m starting to become nauseously optimistic