2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

I always thought she was in good shape in Georgia and North Carolina. I don’t think people account for the major population shift that happened in both of those states that only favors democrats. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Joe Biden lost badly twice before getting eleced.  

Primaries aren't the same - they never speak to more than a small minority of the population and they often only represent a pol trying to learn how to do the thing. (Harris already a classic example of apparently having taken a lot of good lessons on how not to campaign from her primary dud) Biden has never gone to a GE and lost, incl City Council, Senate, or Pres.

[romad1]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

The rides are weird.

I’m reminded of Werner Herzog’s Trader Joe’s yelp review. 

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

the amount of time that Trump is spending in NC seems like such a red flag to me

Maybe it's a place he has a donor willing to pay for the venues.....

.....just sayin'

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Primaries aren't the same - they never speak to more than a small minority of the population and they often only represent a pol trying to learn how to do the thing. (Harris already a classic example of apparently having taken a lot of good lessons on how not to campaign from her primary dud) Biden has never gone to a GE and lost, incl City Council, Senate, or Pres.

I also think he only ran in 2008 to be Vice President. He wasn’t going to beat two heavyweights in Clinton and Obama, but both would be looking for an old, experienced, white man for VP. 

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I’m reminded of Werner Herzog’s Trader Joe’s yelp review. 

LOL - I'd never heard that. Werner is priceless.

Edited November 4, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

[Motown Bombers]

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Primaries aren't the same - they never speak to more than a small minority of the population and they often only represent a pol trying to learn how to do the thing. (Harris already a classic example of apparently having taken a lot of good lessons on how not to campaign from her primary dud) Biden has never gone to a GE and lost, incl City Council, Senate, or Pres.

Also, I just cannot bring myself to hold the 2008 primaries against Biden.... everybody in that field not named "Clinton" or "Obama" were cannon fodder.

[MichiganCardinal]

This is a truly deplorable ad campaign

[Tigerbomb13]

What is everyone’s anxiety level? Through the roof here, and I don’t know how to tame that in the next 30+ hours. I’m somewhat optimistic, but I’m terrified of getting that 2016 feeling again. 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

What is everyone’s anxiety level? Through the roof here, and I don’t know how to tame that in the next 30+ hours. I’m somewhat optimistic, but I’m terrified of getting that 2016 feeling again. 

My election model shows she has a 95% chance of winning. If she loses, my model isn’t wrong. 

[Motown Bombers]

This election reminds me of 2016 but in the other direction. The enthusiasm and late deciders are on Harris side she the ref flags are on Trump’s side. 

[LaceyLou]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

William Jennings Bryan is another possible comparison from history - perhaps closer given that he lost the popular vote three times.

You sent me down a rabbit hole. William Jennings Bryan and  Henry Clay were the only two people to win electoral votes in 3 different presidential elections.

[Hongbit]

21 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

What is everyone’s anxiety level? Through the roof here, and I don’t know how to tame that in the next 30+ hours. I’m somewhat optimistic, but I’m terrified of getting that 2016 feeling again. 

I have none.  This is not going to be close.  The polls are way off and Trump is going to get streamrolled.  

[Motor City Sonics]

Funny that the first time Joe Biden ran for President he dropped out over a scandal.  That he quoted a British politician without giving credit. 

That's it.   

Man, the bar was so much higher in 1988.  

[Motor City Sonics]

8 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I have none.  This is not going to be close.  The polls are way off and Trump is going to get streamrolled.  

I wish I had your confidence.    2016 has us all shaken, but you know what - the young vote was not enamored with Hillary and we had no real fear of Roe v Wade being overturned. 

But I do remember someone, either George Will or Bill Kristol saying overturning Roe v. Wade would be a huge gift to Democrats and so far it has been.  

I really am hoping by a steamroll.   I really am hoping this is actually locked up before 11pm - even before California, Washington and Oregon come in.    

When the Lions beat Dallas and Green Bay the goal was to drub them so badly that not even crooked and stupid refs could make a difference.

I hope for such a trouncing that none of his caterwauling about being cheated will even matter

I hope to see our new President and shake her hand

I hope. 

 

 

 

 

(if she somehow got 450 EVs, he's still shriek about it).  He can shriek about it from Mar-A-Lago with his little ankle monitor for the next 2 years.  If he has single marble left in 2028, he'll run again and he'll end up their nominee and there's nothing they can to do stop it. 

Edited November 4, 2024 by Motor City Sonics

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Funny that the first time Joe Biden ran for President he dropped out over a scandal.  That he quoted a British politician without giving credit. 

That's it.   

Man, the bar was so much higher in 1988.  

and this has been part of the problem as well. The 'gotcha' journalism that grew up  - mostly after Watergate - with every political reporter trying to be Woodward & Bernstein led every trivial kind of indiscretion being blown up in the media into something it wasn't. Like the boy who cried wolf, someone like Trump comes a long and to many people the carping just sounds like the same old media **** they figure they don't need to care about.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

[gehringer_2]

29 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

You sent me down a rabbit hole. William Jennings Bryan 

I don't know how he could have lost. Who didn't want to be spared Crucifixion on a cross of gold?  

(Isn't Frank Baum riffing a little on those gold/silver controversies in "The Wizard of Oz"?)

Edited November 4, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

10 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

 

What I like about this is that it was such a self inflicted unforced error. 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

What I like about this is that it was such a self inflicted unforced error. 

It's one virtue of how long and arduous a US campaign is - it is harder, though still not impossible (Trump in '16) to hide who you really are while being out in the public that long. I don't agree with him, but Tim Alberta's whole premise in the Atlantic article that someone posted up thread is that if Trump had just trimmed his sails and gone along with what Wiles and LaCivita wanted him to do, he could have insured himself an easy win - but he couldn't be someone else for that long.

[MichiganCardinal]

While I suspect we will ‘know’ sometime around 12-2am tomorrow night, I do not expect any network to call it until at least Wednesday night.

Gotta soak up those sweet, sweet ratings.

[MichiganCardinal]

As far as confidence goes I’m at about 95% too. This is the most confident I’ve been about an election in my adult life. But crazy **** could happen.

[Motown Bombers]

I was pretty confident in 2008. When McCain shut down his campaign in Michigan, I knew it was ballgame.