2024 Presidential Election thread

[MichiganCardinal]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

I was pretty confident in 2008. When McCain shut down his campaign in Michigan, I knew it was ballgame. 

Not to age you…. But 2008 was not in my adult life. 😆

[gehringer_2]

This is the 14th Presidential election I have voted in, and Trump's win in 2016 was not the only time I voted for the loser but it was probably the first time I was really surprised by an election outcome. I had argued a lot on the old forum that the Dems were whistling past the graveyard on Hillary's negatives but I still expected her to pull it out. 

So I am willing to say again that I will be surprised again if Trump wins this - everything I think I understand about political fundamentals says he should fall short - but since it's Trump and I mis-read him once,  I can't say I have any certainty level at all.

Edited 6 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motor City Sonics]

37 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

and this has been part of the problem as well. The 'gotcha' journalism that grew up  - mostly after Watergate - with every political reporter trying to be Woodward & Bernstein led every trivial kind of indiscretion being blown up in the media into something it wasn't. Like the boy who cried wolf, someone like Trump comes a long and to many people the carping just sounds like the same old media **** they figure they don't need to care about.

Actually,  Bill Clinton changed all that.     I mean, if you remember it was gotcha, after gotcha, after gotcha and it STRENGTHENED him.  It was incredible.  Never saw anyone bat away so many scandals  and just keep on truckin' (until Trump).   Maybe it's the underdog factor

Funny thing is that Trump got 34 felonies for something he never needed to do.    His cheating wouldn't have mattered one bit with voters.    Honestly, I don't give a crap how someone lives their personal life.  Someone wants to cheat on their spouse, the only question I have is Does it affect their job?   Sure, it makes them blackmailable, but he got 34 strikes for something that his voters don't care about.  

Nobody politicked better than Bill Clinton.   He was a master at it.  It's a natural gift.   If Hillary at 1/10% of that, she'd have been the first Madame President.     Trump is different.  It's not politicking it's good it, it's Archie Bunkering that he's good at and some people love that.   They tend to be garbage, but hope some of y'all's confidence is well-placed. 

As far as the MSG rally.  That's the October surprise, but I have to ask.   "You're surprised that this bunch is racist?   Where ya been since the Civil Rights movement?"

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Funny thing is that Trump got 34 felonies for something he never needed to do.    His cheating wouldn't have mattered one bit with voters. 

which is also the great irony in Clinton's case. He could have told the truth at the grand jury, the public would have forgiven him anyway, there would have been no impeachment, Gore probably beats Bush and Bret Cavanaugh is still a second tier republican lawyer. People underestimate that you can salvage a bad situation more often by doing the right thing than by doubling down with another bad one.

Edited 6 hours ago by gehringer_2

[RatkoVarda]

1 hour ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

What is everyone’s anxiety level? Through the roof here, and I don’t know how to tame that in the next 30+ hours. I’m somewhat optimistic, but I’m terrified of getting that 2016 feeling again. 

terrified. I saying the same things I said in 2016; no way he can win; might be a blow out; good people will come to their senses.

there are a lot of people who won't vote for a woman or a minority, so she's got 2 strikes on her before steps to the plate

but Trump is vile on every level, I have to assume people are sick of his sh\t

[LaceyLou]

The elections that I felt the most certain about the outcome come Election Day were 1984, 1996, and 2008. The only one that completely shocked me was, you guessed it, 2016. 

I think social media, with all of its bots and deliberate misinformation, has really amped up everybody's anxiety. Is there by chance a rise in use of anti-anxiety drugs?

[LaceyLou]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

which is also the great irony in Clinton's case. He could have told the truth at the grand jury, the public would have forgiven him anyway, there would have been no impeachment, Gore probably beats Bush and Bret Cavanaugh is still a second tier republican lawyer.

This. When it first came out I wished he'd at least said "That's none of your business." Lying at the grand jury was just stupid.

 

ETA: I genuinely do think he's slimy, and that we need to pick better now.

Edited 6 hours ago by LaceyLou

[Motown Bombers]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

which is also the great irony in Clinton's case. He could have told the truth at the grand jury, the public would have forgiven him anyway, there would have been no impeachment, Gore probably beats Bush and Bret Cavanaugh is still a second tier republican lawyer. People underestimate that you can salvage a bad situation more often by doing the right thing than by doubling down with another bad one.

Bill Clinton didn’t bring down Gore. Clinton was one of the most popular out going presidents. Gore distancing himself from Clinton did more harm. 

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

As far as the MSG rally.  That's the October surprise, but I have to ask.   "You're surprised that this bunch is racist?   Where ya been since the Civil Rights movement?"

The power of the MSG rally is that it didn't fall out of his mouth.... the Puerto Rican comment (along with a bunch of other terrible things) fell out of other people's mouths.

To me, that's why it broke through.... 

[Motor City Sonics]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

which is also the great irony in Clinton's case. He could have told the truth at the grand jury, the public would have forgiven him anyway, there would have been no impeachment, Gore probably beats Bush and Bret Cavanaugh is still a second tier republican lawyer. People underestimate that you can salvage a bad situation more often by doing the right thing than by doubling down with another bad one.

Longtime Michigan AD Don Canham famously said "never turn a 1-day story into a 2-day story"

Of course he (and Bo) also covered up Dr. Robert Anderson's perverted ways for over a decade and took it to his grave for others to shovel out of.   

The amount of money MSU could have saved if they only owned up to Nasser.    The amount of money and futures that Snyder could have saved if he just admitted he f'ed up on the water in Flint.    The cover up is always worse. 

You know, I think it's rather safe to assume that every man that has money and power is probably a bit of a scumbag in their real life.  Most people expect that.   If you had a really wealthy person who was a saint, nobody would believe it. 

Get in front of it.  When Clinton said "I didn't inhale" it cause it to be a much bigger story.   When Obama was asked the same if he inhaled he said "that was the point."  When Gore was asked if he smoked pot he said "I was in Vietnam in the 60s, of course I did, we all did"  There was no story after that.  Asked and answered.     Loved what the Dolphins exec said after they drafted Laremy Tunsil after the pot gas mask video came out on draft night.  Exec said "A college kid smoking pot.......same thing I did in college, how could I judge"  The controversy ended right then and there. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Motor City Sonics

[Motor City Sonics]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

The power of the MSG rally is that it didn't fall out of his mouth.... the Puerto Rican comment (along with a bunch of other terrible things) fell out of other people's mouths.

To me, that's why it broke through.... 

He could have quieted the thing that very day, but he thought it was funny.  A crack about a place with a lot of brown people.  Ha Ha Ha.   He let it fester for several days before he made his "I love Puerto Rico" remark.   Nobody bought it then, he waited way too long.    When people show you who they are - believe them. 

[Tigerbomb13]

5 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

He could have quieted the thing that very day, but he thought it was funny.  A crack about a place with a lot of brown people.  Ha Ha Ha.   He let it fester for several days before he made his "I love Puerto Rico" remark.   Nobody bought it then, he waited way too long.    When people show you who they are - believe them. 

He could have solved all of this again by going to Puerto Rico and throwing a roll of paper towles like a basketball. 
 

Edited 5 hours ago by Tigerbomb13

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Bill Clinton didn’t bring down Gore. Clinton was one of the most popular out going presidents. Gore distancing himself from Clinton did more harm. 

yes and no. Why did Gore distance himself from Clinton?- because he made a judgment that Clinton was going to hurt him. Now that may have been 100% the wrong reading, but he never would have made it all if Clinton hadn't dug his own hole so much deeper than he had to.  Gore was married to a woman that campaigned against pop song lyrics - the Gore's were not big fans of sex and violence culture.

[LaceyLou]

One take on why we're all so anxious:

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/2024-election-polls-trump-harris-close-rcna178483

[Motor City Sonics]

19 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Bill Clinton didn’t bring down Gore. Clinton was one of the most popular out going presidents. Gore distancing himself from Clinton did more harm. 

The problem was Clinton was relaxed, and chameleon-like when he talked with people.  He had that thing that connected with people whether it was a large crowd or a small group.   Gore didn't have that.  Gore was stiff, sounded rehearsed, sounded unnatural and if he had just a little bit of charisma he wins in 2000 (he likely actually won Florida, but he put the country first, damn him).     Gore just didn't posses natural charm.   the Union Label song fiasco (said his dad sang that to him as a kid even though the song came out in the 70's),  it ate him up, ridiculously,  that would not have touched Clinton.  He would have twisted that in to something that helped him.   Only other politician who could politick nearly as well as Slick Willie was Coleman Young.   When he argued with Bill Bonds, he knew exactly what he was doing, he and Bonds were pals.   Their fights were as staged as wrestling. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Motor City Sonics

[Motor City Sonics]

5 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

One take on why we're all so anxious:

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/2024-election-polls-trump-harris-close-rcna178483

not really buying it.   Clicks.........Views........Fear..........Click this.   They're scaring the hell out of my Mom.  She's 83, I would love to see her witness a female President.   What that would mean to her.  

[CMRivdogs]

https://x.com/bill_shea19/status/1853551386610262131?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw

 

Red states do not want federal election monitors because it hampers their expected efforts to claim fraud to help Trump.

Quote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Missouri SOS Office

 

@MissouriSOS

·

6h

Ashcroft Sues to Block DOJ Election Interference. #moleg #MOvotes https://sos.mo.gov/default.aspx?PageId=10438

 

 

[Motor City Sonics]

19 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The power of the MSG rally is that it didn't fall out of his mouth.... the Puerto Rican comment (along with a bunch of other terrible things) fell out of other people's mouths.

To me, that's why it broke through.... 

Hey, Kamala, if you ever have a comedian at a rally, don't have a Roast.   Please don't invite Jeff Ross.   

[LaceyLou]

4 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

The problem was Clinton was relaxed, and chameleon-like when he talked with people.  He had that thing that connected with people whether it was a large crowd or a small group.   Gore didn't have that.  Gore was stiff, sounded rehearsed, sounded unnatural and if he had just a little bit of charisma he wins in 2000 (he likely actually won Florida, but he put the country first, damn him).     Gore just didn't posses natural charm.   the Union Label song fiasco (said his dad sang that to him as a kid even though the song came out in the 70's),  it ate him up, ridiculously,  that would not have touched Clinton.  He would have twisted that in to something that helped him.   Only other politician who could politick nearly as well as Slick Willie was Coleman Young.   When he argued with Bill Bonds, he knew exactly what he was doing, he and Bonds were pals.   Their fights were as staged as wrestling. 

My mother worked on Clinton's campaign in 1992. She said he could make you feel like you were the only, most important person in the room. And my Mom wasn't normally swayed by people in that way.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

The problem was Clinton was relaxed, and chameleon-like when he talked with people.  He had that thing that connected with people whether it was a large crowd or a small group.   Gore didn't have that.  Gore was stiff, sounded rehearsed, sounded unnatural and if he had just a little bit of charisma he wins in 2000 (he likely actually won Florida, but he put the country first, damn him).     Gore just didn't posses natural charm.   the Union Label song fiasco (said his dad sang that to him as a kid even though the song came out in the 70's),  it ate him up, ridiculously,  that would not have touched Clinton.  He would have twisted that in to something that helped him.   Only other politician who could politick nearly as well as Slick Willie was Coleman Young.   When he argued with Bill Bonds, he knew exactly what he was doing, he and Bonds were pals.   

And Gore also never learned how to take credit without sounding the the kid in class everyone hated. There is an art to it. Listen to Obama 'take credit' for leaving Trump a great economy and compare it to Gore trying to get credit for being a big technology backer with the faux pas "I invented the internet".  All that and he still should have been elected.

[mtutiger]

55 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

As far as confidence goes I’m at about 95% too. This is the most confident I’ve been about an election in my adult life. But crazy **** could happen.

I keep coming back to the fact that he's spent more time in NC (the one state of the seven that he won four years ago) the past three days than he has any other state. I'm trying really hard to guard against motivated reasoning in how to look at this stuff, especially after how the last two elections, but when you tune out all the noise, having to spend that much time playing defense at this stage is generally not a great signal.

The order of the blue wall will be interesting.... at least in the Trump era thus far, Wisconsin is always the rightmost state, but increasingly the CW is that PA will end up being closer. Goes against what I believe would happen, but how much of that is real or a product of Trump having to prioritize it due to how many EC votes it has remains to be seen.

Edited 5 hours ago by mtutiger

[Motor City Sonics]

Whatever happens,  at least after 9pm tomorrow no more political ads of doom.       It's a bludgeoning all day.   Hard to watch anything.  

[Motown Bombers]

Trump said Harris should get in the ring with Mike Tyson. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

What I like about this is that it was such a self inflicted unforced error. 

That describes most MAGA errors.  

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Whatever happens,  at least after 9pm tomorrow no more political ads of doom.       It's a bludgeoning all day.   Hard to watch anything.  

Put her in there with Trump and she'll probably kick his ass.