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CMRivdogs Grand Master

CMRivdogs

Posted
Posted

JV Last in today’s Bullwerk 

 

We have three outcomes that rise to the level of not-unlikely.

Harris wins popular vote by ≈ 2.4 points; Trump wins EC narrowly.

Harris wins popular vote by ≈ 3.0 points and also wins EC narrowly.

Harris wins popular vote by > 3.2 points and wins a large majority in the EC.

We should be able to eliminate one of these possibilities fairly early tomorrow night. We’ll see the breakdowns on women and African-Americans in states that get results quickly. And they will take one of the two outside scenarios off the table.

Are we still in coin-flip territory? As a matter of probabilities, I don’t know. But with a one-time outcome, it’s going to feel like 50-50.

https://www.threads.net/@jvlast/post/DB9V-nTyuUe?xmt=AQGzf-Kv69Wg0SRpvyCsnpuwi8xHP-aeeGSCNOF0loN6Gw

 

 

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oblong
oblong

He has immunity though so it’s all good. 

romad1
romad1

Deep-seated fears of a Trump autocracy have led me to this path.  It started when I first saw him in a debate in 2015 and I thought "nobody could be this stupid and still have so many people cheering

smr-nj
smr-nj

and I will tell you that as a woman, I didn’t say a word about a sexual assault that happened to me until 50 years after it happened. edited to delete my second paragraph, and to say, the hell wi

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Tiger337 Grand Master

Tiger337

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

What is everyone’s anxiety level? Through the roof here, and I don’t know how to tame that in the next 30+ hours. I’m somewhat optimistic, but I’m terrified of getting that 2016 feeling again. 

Mine is high and this is coming from someone who didn't give a **** about politics for most of my life.  I believe Harris will win but the negative impact of a Trump win would be so much more than the positive impact of a Harris win and I am not really confident in my belief of a Harris victory.  The only thing that will really make me happy is Trump getting absolutely crushed.  Anything else would be an embarrassment for our country.  

Edited by Tiger337
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CMRivdogs Grand Master

CMRivdogs

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More Last

https://www.threads.net/@jvlast/post/DB9WANjSNI-?xmt=AQGzjAmjokT80v0yFf0c_j8g-TL5Xp3PdqKHnblaklNFvw

 

 

If Trump is on track to lose, he has moreincentive to declare victory tomorrow night. Work backwards from Trump’s perspective: He needs to keep his supporters bound to him and he wants to continue to own the Republican party.¹

Having spent the previous four years insisting that he won in 2020 and that he cannot lose in 2024 unless he is cheated again, conceding defeat would be taken by his supporters as a personal betrayal. So he can’t do that.

Further, he has already primed his supporters to expect a stolen election after they have spent the last year being utterly confident that Trump would win. At the Madison Square Garden rally, Tucker Carlson even hung a number on Harris’s expected vote total, saying that no one should believe that she could get 85 million votes.

So if the early results suggest that Harris is headed toward probable victory, I would expect Trump to come out with accusations of fraud and assertions that he won sooner rather than later.

Also, Trump has to set a party line early, before any elected Republicans admit that Harris won. If Trump gets out early, then MAGA-loyal politicians will run with it, putting pressure on other Republicans down the line to either support the Big Lie 2.0 or stay silent. 

 

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oblong Grand Master

oblong

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49 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The power of the MSG rally is that it didn't fall out of his mouth.... the Puerto Rican comment (along with a bunch of other terrible things) fell out of other people's mouths.

To me, that's why it broke through.... 

that’s a great point.  

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MichiganCardinal Grand Master

MichiganCardinal

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26 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I keep coming back to the fact that he's spent more time in NC (the one state of the seven that he won four years ago) the past three days than he has any other state.

I have a hard time reading anything into anything he does. Why did he hold a disastrous rally at MSG? Why did he recently visit New Mexico? For all we know there’s a specific McDonalds in NC that he really likes.

He’s an idiot who is surrounded with sycophants who are unable to tell him “no.” If he wins it will be despite himself and that sack of nonsense he calls a campaign.

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gehringer_2 Grand Master

gehringer_2

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1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Why did he hold a disastrous rally at MSG?

I think the ego stroke on that one isn't so hard to see, how it turned into such a fiasco is a different question altogether!

I'm with you on having no clue about the fix on NC. If you think  you are in trouble, you don't put all your eggs in one basket - you spend 'em around because once you go somewhere the marginal value of another event in close succession in the same place can only fall. If you think you are winning, go where you can pick up some additional margin? So he's convinced himself he owns the upper midwest and NC would be the cherry on top? I suppose that's a possible take.

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mtutiger Grand Master

mtutiger

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I have a hard time reading anything into anything he does. Why did he hold a disastrous rally at MSG? Why did he recently visit New Mexico? For all we know there’s a specific McDonalds in NC that he really likes.

He’s an idiot who is surrounded with sycophants who are unable to tell him “no.” If he wins it will be despite himself and that sack of nonsense he calls a campaign.

I get what you are saying, but the campaign schedule down the stretch here is 100% coming from Wiles / LaCivita. I don't think Trump personally is handing them a list of cities in NC/GA/PA to visit, the campaign is making decisions based on whatever data they are sitting on.

GR tonight may be the exception, since he's ended his two previous runs there and he's superstitious

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mtutiger Grand Master

mtutiger

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Going back to the question about where WI/PA fall relative to one another.... I just wonder whether the CW shifted toward PA being the tipping point because of it's necessity to Trump's path rather than actual evidence or common sense. 

I know, there's been a flood of polling of PA that seemingly herds to a tie, but just given what the two states are actually like, particularly how diverse PA is relative to WI, it's really hard to imagine it ending up to the right of WI when all the chips are down.

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CMRivdogs Grand Master

CMRivdogs

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37 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I have a hard time reading anything into anything he does. Why did he hold a disastrous rally at MSG? Why did he recently visit New Mexico? For all we know there’s a specific McDonalds in NC that he really likes.

He’s an idiot who is surrounded with sycophants who are unable to tell him “no.” If he wins it will be despite himself and that sack of nonsense he calls a campaign.

I don’t see Trump as a guy who would enjoy a pulled pork sandwich at Smithfield BBQ

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Motown Bombers Grand Master

Motown Bombers

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15 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Going back to the question about where WI/PA fall relative to one another.... I just wonder whether the CW shifted toward PA being the tipping point because of it's necessity to Trump's path rather than actual evidence or common sense. 

I know, there's been a flood of polling of PA that seemingly herds to a tie, but just given what the two states are actually like, particularly how diverse PA is relative to WI, it's really hard to imagine it ending up to the right of WI when all the chips are down.

Maybe the Selzer poll is giving us a hint on Wisconsin.

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Motown Bombers Grand Master

Motown Bombers

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49 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I have a hard time reading anything into anything he does. Why did he hold a disastrous rally at MSG? Why did he recently visit New Mexico? For all we know there’s a specific McDonalds in NC that he really likes.

He’s an idiot who is surrounded with sycophants who are unable to tell him “no.” If he wins it will be despite himself and that sack of nonsense he calls a campaign.

He probably went to New Mexico to see his lawyer.

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LaceyLou Proficient

LaceyLou

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So how do we distinguish between wishful thinking and a real reason to be optimistic?

I just happened to see a post on twitter (I know, I need to get off of there) by a MAGAt who gleefully claims that since he saw a row of MAGAt decked pickup trucks on a highway, that NY is absolutely in play. Yeah, right.

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LaceyLou Proficient

LaceyLou

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Posted
1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Whatever happens,  at least after 9pm tomorrow no more political ads of doom.       It's a bludgeoning all day.   Hard to watch anything.  

Most of the ads here seem to be aimed at NH.

If nothing else, we need to reform the electoral college so we can spread the anxiety more equally.

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mtutiger Grand Master

mtutiger

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21 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

So how do we distinguish between wishful thinking and a real reason to be optimistic?

I just happened to see a post on twitter (I know, I need to get off of there) by a MAGAt who gleefully claims that since he saw a row of MAGAt decked pickup trucks on a highway, that NY is absolutely in play. Yeah, right.

On that note.... lol

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1776 Grand Master

1776

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My phone has been inundated with political texts from both parties for the past couple of weeks. I’m sure it will continue through tomorrow evening and then, hopefully, the BS stops. 
 

It is reported that by the end of early voting here in NC this weekend that 57% of registered voters had cast their votes. 

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