2024 Presidential Election thread

[TP_Fan]

I recently moved to North Dakota. Easy process.  No voter registration, multiple locations to choose from.  Used a touch screen platform.

There was an initiative on the ballot to eliminate property tax, haven’t seen that before.

If there was only a Republican candidate I wrote in Trey Lance, since he is basically a hero in these parts.

My job has me interacting with lots of political appointees, so either way, the first quarter of 2025 will be teaching people how the government works.

[IdahoBert]

“But I also want to be clear. Anybody who thinks it’s time to play militia: Eff around and find out,” he continued. “Anybody who thinks it’s time to insult, to deride, to mistreat, to threaten people: Eff around and find out. We do have the cuffs, we do have the jail cells, we do have the Philly juries and we have the state prisons.”

[romad1]

[IdahoBert]

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

A preemptive defense of the pollsters, if necessary.  They are based on data and objectivity. If turnout and voting patterns is a lot different from the past then how can they be expected to measure that?   It’s a history based science isn’t it?

well, that is the thing. If they could draw a random sample, it wouldn't matter if the population has changed because all that would show up in any truly random sample. But they can't get a random sample in the US anymore (they could come pretty close in the post WWII period using landlines and fixed geography area codes), but that's completely gone now.....) so they have to use a model, and the model has to be constructed from the past, so if the population changes, the model can't possibly be adjusted for it with any certainty until after the next election - at least other than by pure guess work. 

What the pollsters are doing that is dishonest, is to continue to claim their polls have the same validity/accuracy level when they no longer do. Some of them will make the right guesses on their model and get the result, and then claim they are good pollsters, but in most cases that will be a fallacy. They simply made luckier assumptions about how to massage their model  - i.e they have a certain expertise, but not necessarily as survey takers.

Edited 9 hours ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

42 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

It took a little more time voting this morning due to not checking a straight Democratic ticket.  

Even though the position doesn’t matter, there was absolutely no way that I was casting a vote for Denise Ilitch as UM Trustee.    

When the family chooses to step up and invest back in the teams they are essentially holding hostage,  I will choose to support them again. 

What leads you to believe Denise has any input to what Chris does with the Wings or Tigers? Not being facetious  - serious question.

[LaceyLou]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

Not sure this is something I trust but

https://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/about-center/dartmouth-poll/media-and-results

 

That will be true if the traditional Northern Republicans are voting in droves. While unfortunately some of them drank the Kool Aid, many people I grew up with were even more adamantly pro-choice than I was. 

Edited 9 hours ago by LaceyLou

[CMRivdogs]

https://x.com/timalberta/status/1853798353240269112?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw
 

Tim Alberta this morning

Quote

Good morning and happy Election Day. The closest I'll come to a prediction:

Eight years ago, I wrote about the conflict between my brain and my gut. Everything I knew (state data, demographic trends, etc) pointed to a Clinton victory. Yet everything I saw (hidden support, intensity of opposition toward Clinton) suggested Trump would win. 

Today feels eerily similar—with the roles reversed. Everything I know (high floor, erosion within the Dem coalition, good environment) points to a Trump victory. Yet everything I see (hidden support, intensity of opposition toward Trump) suggests Harris will win.

My brain has told me, since springtime, that Trump is the favorite. That didn't change when Harris took over the ticket; I told audiences throughout September and part of October that I thought he'd win. But my gut—especially over these last two weeks—keeps saying Harris, and maybe even Harris by a comfortable margin.

Bottom line: a massacre in the suburbs would realign the electorate more than any shift among urban non-whites. Trump may well improve in Detroit, but if he loses Oakland County by 20 points it ain't gonna matter.

I don't think we'll see Oakland Co splits being that large, but one could hope

[oblong]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

What leads you to believe Denise has any input to what Chris does with the Wings or Tigers? Not being facetious  - serious question.

I suspect it’s more to do with their management of the properties they’ve owned for 30 years.  That’s my issue at least. I have little quibble with their sports management. 

[LaceyLou]

2 hours ago, The Ronz said:

"The eyes of the world are upon you. The hopes and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you." 

To the Trump voters - You will never learn who is ****ting on you by looking down.

The direction to look is the contained in Isiah 11:2 "Look up."

To me, the worst pain caused by this cult isn't from losing the ones you love - and I have lost my entire family - It is the revelation you gain from finding out who the ones you loved really were.

Trump wins this easily.

RIP America - July 4, 1776 - November 5, 2024.

I am sorry. 

That is one of the worst things about this-families being divided. 

I may sound melodramatic but I do think it's the truth.

 

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, CMRivdogs said:

https://x.com/timalberta/status/1853798353240269112?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw
 

Tim Alberta this morning

I don't think we'll see Oakland Co splits being that large, but one could hope

This reads as though Alberta believes in his heart that Kamala will swamp Trump, but he is hedging his words in the same way the MSM pollsters appear to be hedging their models so he's not left hanging out there if it goes different.

[MichiganCardinal]

The Ilitch name giveth, the Ilitch name taketh away. If I changed my name to John Ilitch I could get a million votes in this state for any given political office.

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

A former member of this community who had a job writing about politics, a right winger for sure, put it out there on FB that he didn’t vote for either major party candidate as he found both morally unacceptable.  
 

A close family member of mine told my wife that while she wouldn’t reveal who she voted for, that it differs from her husband who I am pretty sure voted for him.   No this isn’t a situation where she can’t tell him or anything like that. They’re good people.  She just wanted to keep it to herself. She’s very religious. 

Stories like that are probably amplified everywhere. 

If that's who I think it is... Wow

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

A preemptive defense of the pollsters, if necessary.  They are based on data and objectivity. If turnout and voting patterns is a lot different from the past then how can they be expected to measure that?   It’s a history based science isn’t it?

I honestly wonder how much parsing EV totals factors in... saw way too many people going into this election making way too many assumptions about EV numbers, especially given the pandemic in 2020. I wonder if the pollsters made assumptions on this as well.

I don't know what's going to happen, but there are a lot of GOP folks who seemed to make assumptions about EV totals and behaviors that are on track to have egg on their face by the end of the day

Edited 8 hours ago by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The Ilitch name giveth, the Ilitch name taketh away. If I changed my name to John Ilitch I could get a million votes in this state for any given political office.

Still, helping a GOP or Libertarian get on the board who only wants to be there to create disruption is pretty much cutting off your nose to spite your face if you support the University. Most of the non-Dems who have run for Regents seats in recent years have been wack jobs.

Edited 8 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

Turnout is up in Philadelphia, Dem turnout looks great in Clark County, and women continue to outpace men in Michigan. 

[LaceyLou]

It is kind of upsetting that we're depending on high turnout from women, when men will benefit from a Harris presidency at least as much. 

Steady infrastructure spending, reliable funding for such departments as the NIH and USDA, and economists that agree that Harris would be better for the economy? Sounds like a win whether you're a man or woman. 

And.... just because women want to retain their rights, doesn't mean we want men to lose theirs and doesn't mean we think men are evil.

Sigh... 

[mtutiger]

13 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I don't know what's going to happen, but there are a lot of GOP folks who seemed to make assumptions about EV totals and behaviors that are on track to have egg on their face by the end of the day

Nowhere is this more the case than Clark County, fwiw.

[Edman85]

2 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

It is kind of upsetting that we're depending on high turnout from women, when men will benefit from a Harris presidency at least as much. 

Steady infrastructure spending, reliable funding for such departments as the NIH and USDA, and economists that agree that Harris would be better for the economy? Sounds like a win whether you're a man or woman. 

And.... just because women want to retain their rights, doesn't mean we want men to lose theirs and doesn't mean we think men are evil.

Sigh... 

Not having one's wife or daughter die from a difficult pregnancy seems up there...

[Edman85]

Just now, mtutiger said:

Nowhere is this more the case than Clark County, fwiw.

Which Clark County?

I assume people know Springfield, OH is Clark County.

[IdahoBert]

I voted for One Republican in Boise, Idaho for Ada County sheriff because the Democrat had withdrawn and accepted a job in Honolulu and good for him.

And because the only alternative to the Republican was a neo Nazi who claims that most rape cases are phony because most women make it up. He was essentially saying that he would consciously under investigate rape.

Of course he runs under the banner of the “Constitutional Party” which apparently wants to override the constitution and have a one man dictatorship with no checks balances by the legislative and judicial wings. 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Which Clark County?

I assume people know Springfield, OH is Clark County.

Nevada. About 75% of Nevada’s population. 

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

Which Clark County?

I assume people know Springfield, OH is Clark County.

Nevada.... lots of parsing of the EV buttressed by 2020 assumptions that, based on partisan breakdowns of who is voting today, are looking pretty faulty at the moment.

Doesn't mean one candidate will win over the other, just that as many of us learned in 2020, overreading EV data is a bad bad idea.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Not sure how accurate this is, but hopefully it is.

 

[Motown Bombers]

Benson says turnout should exceed 2020 in Michigan.