2024 Presidential Election thread

[MichiganCardinal]

It makes sense. There was record turnout in 2020 during a global pandemic, it should be even higher this time around.

Like I've said previously, between the widespread availability of mail-in and early voting, not having a COVID barrier, the GOTV effort by Harris, and with this election being billed as the election of our lifetimes, it's not surprising to see record high turnout. Which is very likely good news for Harris.

[LaceyLou]

Is the weather as nice there as it is here? 

It's a beautiful day to walk to the polls here.

[mtutiger]

https://x.com/stphnfwlr/status/1853847469081440700

Raffensperger now saying Georgia projected to hit 1.2 million EDay votes...

[gehringer_2]

25 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Not sure how accurate this is, but hopefully it is.

 

I've lost track. Are PA and MI  enough?

Edited November 5, 2024 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

I've lost track. Are PA and MI  enough?

You need WI, which I'm pretty sure is showing a similar picture in Milwaukee and Madison.

If Raffensperger is correct (regarding GA), she has a real chance there IMO... likely going to see all the Metro ATL counties beat 2020 turnout.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I've lost track. Are PA and MI  enough?

Would need at least Wisconsin but could exchange with North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona.

[MichiganCardinal]

So when does Trump declare victory? O/U 9:00pm.

[LaceyLou]

Just now, MichiganCardinal said:

So when does Trump declare victory? O/U 9:00pm.

While I'm not following the news, he's already saying that he has won, as long as there's no fraud of course.

[oblong]

32 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

Is the weather as nice there as it is here? 

It's a beautiful day to walk to the polls here.

I’ve got all my windows open. 

[LaceyLou]

17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Would need at least Wisconsin but could exchange with North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona.

For some reason I especially want WI out of those 4. Maybe it's because a good friend of mine has an adult daughter with special needs and she's scared of what might happen to her.

[Tigermojo]

34 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

Is the weather as nice there as it is here? 

It's a beautiful day to walk to the polls here.

Where's the driveway report when we need one?

[mtutiger]

23 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Would need at least Wisconsin but could exchange with North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona.

This is right, and in general I think the very small but persistent ~1 point lead that Trump has had in these states in polling has led people to over index on the idea that they are off the table for Harris 

I don't think they ever were... AZ is a little murkier, but if NC/GA turnout is robust today and *if* Harris has truly rebuilt standing with AA voters versus where Biden was in the summer, she's absolutely can win there

Edited November 5, 2024 by mtutiger

[LaceyLou]

59 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Not having one's wife or daughter die from a difficult pregnancy seems up there...

I agree. Unfortunately, a lot of people don't think they'll ever be affected (as we've seen recently, in at least one of the cases in the news right now) by these bans until they do find themselves in the situation.

[Motown Bombers]

Trump closed by running anti-trans ads.

[mtutiger]

24 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This is right, and in general I think the very small but persistent ~1 point lead that Trump has had in these states in polling has led people to over index on the idea that they are off the table for Harris 

I don't think they ever were... AZ is a little murkier, but if NC/GA turnout is robust today and *if* Harris has truly rebuilt standing with AA voters versus where Biden was in the summer, she's absolutely can win there

Another thing that's important to note, particularly on the point about black voters: we (pollsters, pundits and amateurs like us) focus on the margins *a lot* (ie. candidate X has lost 3% versus candidate Y compared to 2020). But.... if you take that margin and apply an increase in turnout across that group.... depending how large that increase in turnout is, candidate X will end up netting more raw votes among that group. Depending on how big that turnout is, potentially a lot of them. (Would also add that basically the only EV metric I ever focused or posted about on here was Detroit turnout - this is why)

I think a lot of pundits and pollsters do a really terrible job of explaining this concept to people, to be blunt.

Edited November 5, 2024 by mtutiger

[LaceyLou]

If the ads I described a couple of pages ago are any indication, Drumpf,  or whoever made those commercials, is hoping that women will vote for him because they're afraid that the 'illegals' and scary inner city people are going to attack them. 

And of course, the man who won't share an umbrella with his wife when walking in the rain is the one who will protect them.

Edited November 5, 2024 by LaceyLou
I seem to have forgotten how to type

[antrat]

I hope like hell that fat, orange Hitler goes down in flames. But I'm not gonna' lie. There is a small part of me that would like to see him win and implement everything he rambles about in his Nazi rallies. Cut social security, put 100% tariffs on goods, build a giant wall and deport everyone that isn't a legal citizen. Maybe even some that are but "look" like one. Put his enemies in camps etc. End Obamacare.

Then watch his dumbass followers suffer.

It could be fun to watch Rome burn.

Sh%t! I knew I should have taken fiddle lessons instead of guitar.

[LaceyLou]

Maybe Vance knows how to play fiddle? 

Hopefully I'll be deported to someplace nice, but I doubt it.

P.S. Doesn't vance mean bedbug in Yiddish? I seem to remember that from the crossword puzzle episode of MASH.

Edited November 5, 2024 by LaceyLou

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

https://x.com/stphnfwlr/status/1853847469081440700

Raffensperger now saying Georgia projected to hit 1.2 million EDay votes...

Is that a lot?

[boilerfan]

45 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

So when does Trump declare victory? O/U 9:00pm.

You mean he hasn't yet?

[chasfh]

45 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

So when does Trump declare victory? O/U 9:00pm.

Under. Way, way under.

[chasfh]

13 minutes ago, antrat said:

I hope like hell that fat, orange Hitler goes down in flames. But I'm not gonna' lie. There is a small part of me that would like to see him win and implement everything he rambles about in his Nazi rallies. Cut social security, put 100% tariffs on goods, build a giant wall and deport everyone that isn't a legal citizen. Maybe even some that are but "look" like one. Put his enemies in camps etc. End Obamacare.

Then watch his dumbass followers suffer.

It could be fun to watch Rome burn.

Sh%t! I knew I should have taken fiddle lessons instead of guitar.

Are you terminally ill? Because that's the only way a Trump win won't matter to you.

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Is that a lot?

Given how many votes were cast in early voting in GA, state will likely exceed 2020 turnout.

[Motown Bombers]

I don’t know if this is satire, but I lol’d 

[Motor City Sonics]

Trump is already claiming he won New Mexico again.     Wow, 3 straight times !!!!  Impressive !