2024 Presidential Election thread

[CMRivdogs]

They won't complain until there's another toilet paper shortage. That's what I'm investing my fracking money in.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

There is a theory behind the tariffs, that the economic pain that the tariffs will inflict will magically lead to a bunch of onshoring of American manufacturing, increasing jobs to Americans. It's obviously a load of horse****, but to a degree some have either bought it or are hanging on it at the very least.

I would be curious to know for how long we are all expected to hold our tongue and refrain from complaining about higher prices should he implement these tariffs.... is there a timeline? Or, paraphrasing Lord Farquaad from Shrek, are Americans paying higher prices in pursuit of flawed economic policy just a sacrifice that Donald Trump has to make?

The problem is that manufacturing capacity doesn't just appear overnight. It took decades for manufacturing to off shore, it will take years of steady effort and investment if we make a decision to re-shore. Tariffs are only the carrot, they don't do anything to help get any productive capacity on-line. So maybe after 5 yrs of recession the US looks more like 1960? That's 2 House cycles and 3/2 of the Senate standing for re-election in serious recession? Sure.

When Trump was floating tariffs in his 1st term the had no re-investment incentive plans and he still doesn't.

[Motown Bombers]

Even if you onshore all this labor, costs are still going to go up because American labor costs more. You can't argue that Americans will be making higher wages to offset the rise in prices because that is happening now and people still threw a fit about their eggs. 

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Even if you onshore all this labor, costs are still going to go up because American labor costs more. You can't argue that Americans will be making higher wages to offset the rise in prices because that is happening now and people still threw a fit about their eggs. 

Also correct. On shoring will be highly inflationary. In fact the macro argument/justification for allowing/encouraging off-shoring in the first place has always been 'lower prices!." Nothing in that basic calculus has changed much. The wage differential to China has shrunk a good deal, but now you have other low wage Asian and SA workers doing low wage work that has already left China.

Edited December 19, 2024 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

55 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Even if you onshore all this labor, costs are still going to go up because American labor costs more. You can't argue that Americans will be making higher wages to offset the rise in prices because that is happening now and people still threw a fit about their eggs. 

Yuppers....

I couldn't imagine being a politician living through 2022-2023 and seeing what the impacts were and thinking, "oh yeah, let's embrace policies that will lead to even more inflation".

Trump doesn't care, the man has few convictions but the tariffs are one of them.... but his party should care because they will outlive and outlast him and will have to deal with the consequences.

Edited December 19, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

54 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Also correct. On shoring will be highly inflationary. In fact the macro argument/justification for allowing/encouraging off-shoring in the first place has always been 'lower prices!." Nothing in that basic calculus has changed much. The wage differential to China has shrunk a good deal, but now you have other low wage Asian and SA workers doing low wage work that has already left China.

Will onshoring even happen though? The most likely end result is that the policy is implemented, it doesn't work, but we are subjected to economic pain anyway.

That's what I'm getting at... the implication is that we need to accept these higher prices as a way to, quote un-quote, MAGA.... but when the policies are implemented and, inevitably, there are few examples of the goals being accomplished, all the while we are looking at an elevated inflation rate, what's the shelf life on giving this thing a chance? 1 year, 2 years, etc?

The hardcore MAGAs will make excuses, but the example of 2022 and 2023 suggests that the people in the middle of the electorate are not nearly likely to be as patient IMO

[CMRivdogs]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

The hardcore MAGAs will make excuses, but the example of 2022 and 2023 suggests that the people in the middle of the electorate are not nearly likely to be as patient IMO

MAGA always make excuses and never shoulder any blame. They will find a "woke" scapegoat somewhere in the underbrush to blame.

[Tigeraholic1]

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tariffs/

• The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place, and in May 2024, announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, including semiconductors and electric vehicles, for an additional tax increase of $3.6 billion.

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tariffs/

• The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place, and in May 2024, announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, including semiconductors and electric vehicles, for an additional tax increase of $3.6 billion.

Biden engaging in dumb policy quite obviously does not absolve Trump for engaging in even dumber policy.

[CMRivdogs]

Since I can't get the Bluesky thingy to embed

Governing is hard, especially if you are not yet in office and outsourced your management to someone who lied on his visa application 

[Tigeraholic1]

19 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Biden engaging in dumb policy quite obviously does not absolve Trump for engaging in even dumber policy.

LOL ok.................

[Motown Bombers]

22 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Biden engaging in dumb policy quite obviously does not absolve Trump for engaging in even dumber policy.

There's a difference between targeted tariffs and blanket tariffs on all imports and starting trade wars with Canada. 

[Tiger337]

I bet Trump would like not only like to raise the debt ceiling, but get rid of it which would make it easier for him to do whatever he wants.  The DOGE crap commission is not about efficiency and lowering debt, but stealing money and punishing opponents.  

[Tiger337]

Just saw the new Trump haircut.  Looks lessy douchy and more like a bully.  Have to admit it's a slight improvement.  

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

LOL ok.................

I've pretty consistently been skeptical of tariffs. On both this iteration of the board and the last

Sorry if ideological consistency is inconvenient for your whataboutism.

[Tigeraholic1]

Well look at that, not even January yet.

The embattled minority government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says it will invest C$1.3 billion ($909 million) toward border security over six years. The plan focuses on fentanyl, irregular migration and organized crime.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-pledges-beefed-up-border-immigration-restrictions-appease-trump-2024-12-17/

 

[CMRivdogs]

5 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Well look at that, not even January yet.

The embattled minority government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says it will invest C$1.3 billion ($909 million) toward border security over six years. The plan focuses on fentanyl, irregular migration and organized crime.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-pledges-beefed-up-border-immigration-restrictions-appease-trump-2024-12-17/

 

Gotta keep those dang Red Hats out of Canada

[Motown Bombers]

I wonder if the conservative candidate in Canada instructed his party to kill the deal so he can use it as a wedge issue? 

[Motown Bombers]

If MAGA likes Canada's new border legislation, wait until you see what they did recently about guns. 

[mtutiger]

"Surrender Pronto, or We'll Level Toronto!"

[Motown Bombers]

Talk about border security, Trump can't even legally travel to Canada. 

[CMRivdogs]

Think Trump is starting to have a bit of buyers remorse?

Quote

Maxwell Frost

‪@maxwellfrost.bsky.social‬

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A nerve has been struck. Trump is intimidated by President Elon. Now he has his spokesperson out doing damage control cause Elon is calling the shots. Trump was silent on the bill until his boss, President Elon, spoke.

 

 

[mtutiger]

If Trump doesn't want to be treated like a vassal of Elon Musk, he could probably start by not having Elon Musk involved in every intricate little public policy detail and every public engagement that he does as President-elect and, eventually, President.

Incredibly predictable though... deep down, Trump has always been a beta.

Edited December 19, 2024 by mtutiger

[CMRivdogs]

Quote

 

Marisa Kabas

‪@marisakabas.bsky.social‬

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i honestly think it would be way more effective if dems just plainly said "elon musk has trump on a leash and they're both trying to screw you"

 

 

‪Acyn‬ ‪@acyn.bsky.social‬

·

2h

Jeffries: This reckless republican-driven shutdown can be avoided if House Republicans will simply do what is right for the American people and stick with the bipartisan agreement that they themselves negotiated.

Jeffries at Press Conference 

 

 

 

[CMRivdogs]

Not even January and the Red Hats are mumbling about rebellion.