romad1 Posted October 13, 2024 Author Posted October 13, 2024 I am listening to a very interesting Pod on the most important topic in US Government security circles besides pro-Trump RW terrorism in the United States. This is not my gut instinct on how to deal with an egregious violation of international norms but maybe there is some sense to it. Quote
romad1 Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 This is a very interesting development. https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2025/01/07/ford-chinese-ev-batteries-catl-marshall-megasite/77519832007/ Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 8 Posted January 8 55 minutes ago, romad1 said: This is a very interesting development. https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2025/01/07/ford-chinese-ev-batteries-catl-marshall-megasite/77519832007/ While I don't see why any of this would have an impact on a licensing agreement, if it did it would be a terrible mistake. The US needs Li(Fe)PO4 technology and production capability on shore. Once you are doing step one under license you can invent step II yourself and now it's domestic tech. Li(Fe)PO4 is going to especially useful for fixed site applications like home storage for solar arrays where you care less that its weight performance is not quite as good. It's far more stable/safer than having LiION inside your house and will run to more recharge cycles. Quote
romad1 Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: While I don't see why any of this would have an impact on a licensing agreement, if it did it would be a terrible mistake. The US needs Li(Fe)PO4 technology and production capability on shore. Once you are doing step one under license you can invent step II yourself and now it's domestic tech. Li(Fe)PO4 is going to especially useful for fixed site applications like home storage for solar arrays where you care less that its weight performance is not quite as good. It's far more stable/safer than having LiION inside your house and will run to more recharge cycles. The main issue is the entanglement of the Chinese military in the deal. Nobody wants to have them hanging around your town. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Just now, romad1 said: The main issue is the entanglement of the Chinese military in the deal. Nobody wants to have them hanging around your town. That's the beauty of a licensing deal though - once you are off the ground, you say good-bye and just send the royalty checks. It's the best way there is to import technology. I like seeing the the role reversal here since licensing US tech was a big part of how the Chinese built their manufacturing base. IMO - the biggest risk is the heat gets to where the Chinese pull out of the deal. The US needs this manufacturing capability. Quote
romad1 Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: That's the beauty of a licensing deal though - once you are off the ground, you say good-bye and just send the royalty checks. It's the best way there is to import technology. I like seeing the the role reversal here since licensing US tech was a big part of how the Chinese built their manufacturing base. IMO - the biggest risk is the heat gets to where the Chinese pull out of the deal. The US needs this manufacturing capability. Never that simple. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) 2 minutes ago, romad1 said: Never that simple. the need to do the deal is simple. The sad truth is Ford probably doesn't know anything more valuable about car building to the Chinese than what we are getting from them. There just isn't much at risk on our side. Edited January 8 by gehringer_2 Quote
romad1 Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 Interesting Wall Street Journal article about PRC muzzling criticism of its economy. Per the article, Debt as ratio of GDP approaches 300% which does not match their public/propaganda statistics which places them in the normal-ish 70% range. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/xi-jinping-muzzles-chinese-economist-who-dared-to-doubt-gdp-numbers-2a2468ef That combined with rapid population decline…aye carumba! Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 8 Posted January 8 42 minutes ago, romad1 said: Interesting Wall Street Journal article about PRC muzzling criticism of its economy. Per the article, Debt as ratio of GDP approaches 300% which does not match their public/propaganda statistics which places them in the normal-ish 70% range. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/xi-jinping-muzzles-chinese-economist-who-dared-to-doubt-gdp-numbers-2a2468ef That combined with rapid population decline…aye carumba! If I understand it correctly - and I may not, in China the provincial governments have also been allowed to take on debt and I've read there are now tremendous levels of this sub-national level government debt as the regional govs have been spending wildly on xs infrastructure, real-estate devel, etc for a generation as well. Quote
romad1 Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: If I understand it correctly - and I may not, in China the provincial governments have also been allowed to take on debt and I've read there are now tremendous levels of this sub-national level government debt as the regional govs have been spending wildly on xs infrastructure, real-estate devel, etc for a generation as well. Yeah, that is part of their attempt to pay down that debt with more debt. The other part of the PRC's rapid debt accumulation effort has been their Belt and Road Initiative overseas. Saw a statistic from this website today...https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/china China is losing 2.8M people per year while the US is gaining 1.6M. While the UK is gaining 380k, while Canada is gaining 330k. Only the countries where they crap on immigrants from the poor South do we see western countries in decline. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) 16 minutes ago, romad1 said: The other part of the PRC's rapid debt accumulation effort has been their Belt and Road Initiative overseas. I've been surprised the Chinese have been, for lack of a better term, so brain-dead about the whole 'belt-and-road' thing. They've watched the West intently for a long time yet made pretty much all the same mistakes in loaning money to poor governments that were never going to pay it back and then leaning on them to do so anyway - thus they will see their clients' fealty turn into resentment just like we always did. Edited January 8 by gehringer_2 Quote
romad1 Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: I've been surprised the Chinese have been, for lack of a better term, so brain-dead about the whole 'belt-and-road' thing. They've watched the West intently for a long time yet made pretty much all the same mistakes in loaning money to poor governments that were never going to pay it back and then leaning on them to do so anyway - thus they will see their clients' fealty turn into resentment just like we always did. They have their blinders just as we do. Quote
chasfh Posted January 9 Posted January 9 13 hours ago, romad1 said: They have their blinders just as we do. aka “getting high on their own supply.” Quote
romad1 Posted January 9 Author Posted January 9 49 minutes ago, chasfh said: aka “getting high on their own supply.” Just watched the final episode of Chernobyl last night as a reminder of how things will be in Trump's administration. No finer lesson on how COVID spiraled out of control than that. He's got the KGB guy telling him it doesn't matter if the RBMK reactor has a critical flaw because the system has decreed that they are safe. Quote KGB Chairman Charkov: You will not communicate with anyone about Chernobyl ever again. You will remain so immaterial to the world around you that when you finally do die, it will be exceedingly hard to know that you ever lived at all. Valery Legasov: What if I refuse? KGB Chairman Charkov: Why worry about something that isn't going to happen? Valery Legasov: [scoffs] "Why worry about something that isn't going to happen?" Oh, that's perfect. They should put that on our money. Global warming, COVID, Russia taking over Ukraine....just a few of the outcomes that will be made worse. Quote
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