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On the Bright Side: 2023 MLB Draft


1984Echoes

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  • 3 months later...
54 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

BPA in all rounds. Drafting for position makes less sense in MLB than in other drafts.

to some degree, but since metrics for pitchers and position players don't align, it's hard to know with much certainty where your ranks for pitchers would fit in between your ranks of hitters (IOW,  is the best pitcher in the draft is better than the best hitter in the draft or vice versa?)- esp once you get down the list a ways and everyone has a lot of weaknesses. So you pretty much have to take some distribution of hitters and pitchers in every draft even if by some quirk in your rankings every time you came up to draft you consistently had hitters (or pitchers) ranked at the top of your list.

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16 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

*except HS pitchers.  And I’d probably avoid a college pitcher, too, with the 3rd pick.  Too much at stake.

I personally feel that is part of determining the BPA by taking into account all of the risks/. Also to play devil's advocate if you feel like a college pitcher at 3 is too risky then picking Verlander at 2 was a mistake as well. 

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16 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

to some degree, but since metrics for pitchers and position players don't align, it's hard to know with much certainty where your ranks for pitchers would fit in between your ranks of hitters (IOW,  is the best pitcher in the draft is better than the best hitter in the draft or vice versa?)- esp once you get down the list a ways and everyone has a lot of weaknesses. So you pretty much have to take some distribution of hitters and pitchers in every draft even if by some quirk in your rankings every time you came up to draft you consistently had hitters (or pitchers) ranked at the top of your list.

I mean I agree, you may weigh things based on that but the Angels took pitchers in all 20 rounds of 2021 so it isn't completely unheard of. 

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3 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I personally feel that is part of determining the BPA by taking into account all of the risks/. Also to play devil's advocate if you feel like a college pitcher at 3 is too risky then picking Verlander at 2 was a mistake as well. 

Taking pitcher's risks into account, and the added value of position players > pitchers...

For the 1st round only... I don't think I would select a pitcher over a position player if they were tied in Org evaluations. Extending that... I don't think even a 10% better pitcher overcomes injury risk or daily playing value risk... 

So... IMHO: A 1st round pitcher would have to be significantly better than a position player for me to make the pitcher that selection. I don't think Jobe qualifies as that over Mayer. But I don't know how to quantify that, exactly. If Jobe somehow turns into Clemens and Mayer into Alex Rodriguez or Derek Jeter (just dart-boarding), who has the higher value?

In hindsight it's easy to say that Verlander was the worthy #2 selection. At the end of their careers maybe the same will be said of Jobe.

I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions.

But my point remains, 1st round only (after that just take BPA and don't worry pitcher versus position (can't draft ZERO pitchers... right?)): there are two pitcher's risks that should drop them in evaluations against position players: everyday playing value (pitchers lose) and injury risk. So selecting a pitcher in the 1st has to mean he is CLEARLY head and shoulders (however that gets defined) then the next position player....

IMHO.

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