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On the Bright Side: 2023 MLB Draft


1984Echoes

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4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

JV was also picked in the first round. Not in the 5th.

I would guess that there are players out there who we could have taken a chance on.  I'd rather take an unknown kid out of high school than a college player with three years under his belt and a bad resume.  

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Just now, jz68 said:

I would guess that there are players out there who we could have taken a chance on.  I'd rather take an unknown kid out of high school than a college player with three years under his belt and a bad resume.  

I get it, but the resume (ie. stat sheet) doesn't always tell the story in baseball... drafting and development is more holistic than that. With pitchers, a lot of it comes down to raw stuff and velocity. And if a guy does have some command issues but has plus stuff and velocity, what the player development staff can do to help guys reach their full potential.

The flip side is true as well: there are guys who don't have much issue getting college hitters out who don't have the characters to make it at the next level too.

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18 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

5 HS and 5 College. I wonder when was the last time they took 5 HS in the top 10 rounds. 

Note it's 5 HS, 6 College with the extra pick.

But the answer is 2003. 4 in 2004, then Chadd took over drafts.

 

This isn't in a vaccuum, though. I'm guessing, and I could be wrong here, due to the covid years and NIL that college seniors have right now, college juniors are a bit less signable and high school players are a bit more crowded out, shifting the tide a bit.

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1 hour ago, jz68 said:

I would guess that there are players out there who we could have taken a chance on.  I'd rather take an unknown kid out of high school than a college player with three years under his belt and a bad resume.  

Maybe this will help you:

What was Jason Foley's ERA and WHIP in college? Answer: 4.84 and 1.48.

Brieske is a good add... thanks Ratko:

What was Beau Brieske's ERA and WHIP in college? Answer: 5.42 and 1.58.

 

It's called scouting, development, and luck... jz.

 

 

 

Edited by 1984Echoes
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2 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

I like the Anderson pick...seems like a hitter. We'll worry about that position later.  Plus...since he's a squat 6-0 215lbs...we can call him The Fat Kid

The Fat Kid?  That’s got serious cult hero potential.  Can you imagine the merch movement if they still did players’ weekend when he’s crushing it in the bigs?

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1 hour ago, jz68 said:

I would guess that there are players out there who we could have taken a chance on.  I'd rather take an unknown kid out of high school than a college player with three years under his belt and a bad resume.  

Other points everyone has forgotten about:

I don't know how many total minor leaguers we have in our system... but it's gotta be around 240-ish or so...

Always on the lookout for tools that could possibly be developed... but I can assure you we don't have 240 future All-Stars in our minor league system. A lot of guys end up as organizational players. Most do, in fact, since the failure rate is 95% or so... But still looking for tools (not college stats), and a dark-horse can still pop up and surprise (Carpenter/ Foley/ Brieske/ etc.) so you still give these kids a chance. That's what scouting is all about: trying to look past stats or circumstances (like Skubal) and giving chances to kids who you think might have... a chance.

But we're not drafting polished diamonds in each and every of 20 rounds. In fact, these kids can look pretty rough at times... but still develop into something...

So then it's all about your developmental team... and whether one or two of these long-shot kids catch on...

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8 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

The flipside is that when those guys are getting more expensive...

You're bringing in cheaper guys like Clark/ McGonigle.

Also, Keith/ Meadows/ Malloy etc. are a few years behind the 1st wave.

So we'll have roughly 3 waves of rookies/ more expensive contracts on the horizon, a few years apart each...

That seems more manageable...

What is the 1st wave?

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6 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

If we come away from this draft with a solid center fielder and shortstop it doesn’t matter  what people say or who else we draft it’s a huge win. 

I like drafting up the middle if the opportunity is there.

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4 hours ago, jz68 said:

I really don't understand the MLB draft.  Why on earth are we drafting a dude about to turn 21 who put up a 5.31 ERA and 1.506 WHIP this year?  

It does seem weird to draft a guy with those numerals.  However, we’ve seen guys with good numerals (stats and/or ratings) flame out for one reason or another.  I would suggest there’s an opposite realm of that spectrum.  Guys that have the tools to succeed but maybe they have not had the correct coaching or there was progression during a season that started out poorly, or injuries were an issue, or scouts think a mechanical adjustment would yield significant results, something along those lines.  That’s my hope, anyways.

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57 minutes ago, casimir said:

It does seem weird to draft a guy with those numerals. ...

Team driven results for a pitcher can't mean a whole lot in HS. Part of why it takes a big committment to be good drafting preps - you have to go see, gather, verify for yourself. You can sit in the Front Office and collect stats and film of a college kid playing in a major conference and have some idea about the value of his stats before you ever decide to scout him yourself, but there is no way around all that being more work for preps.

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1 hour ago, casimir said:

What is the 1st wave?

It was something Trevor Hooth was trying to sell last night on Detroit minor league report  draft live stream…. Basically drafting HS guys isnt a sign of a rebuilt but a reloading of a 2nd wave after the Keith and Mallory group 

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1 hour ago, casimir said:

What is the 1st wave?

Riley Greene, Torkelson, Mize, Manning & Skubal. There are some secondary players here (Carpenter/ Baddoo/ Brieske/ Rogers/ Turnbull/ Foley/ Lange/ Faedo...); but is this a focus on anyone who can contribute or who we might expect to be the top dogs of a new competitive team? I guess I'll list both for completeness sake. Also, a few guys might fall off based on ineffectiveness or injuries or etc. This is not a guarantee of anything, simply... a timeline. I guess the "bottom" line is that I believe our salary cap can maneuver around all of these top, or otherwise, players... Which was the original concern from someone else's other post.

2nd wave (guys on the verge of MLB): Malloy, Meadows, Keith, and possibly some secondary guys like Dingler/ Olson/ Madden/ Flores/ Hurter/ Gipson-Long and maybe even Bigbie or Trei Cruz or Wenceel... again, a lot of these guys will become utility players or relievers or AAAA guys... just listing some secondary players for completeness. Even who we think might turn into some top talents on this list could easily fall off. Or one or two could pop and surprise us. But if this is an exercise in salary cap management, I see no problems here. And to my earlier point, there's a few years between handing out large extensions to Riley Greene/ Skubal/ anyone else in the 1st wave? versus considering the same for anyone in the 2nd wave.

And the 3rd wave? Guys who are several years away from MLB at this point, at best? Again, I don't see any pending issues in salary cap management. Jobe is not close. Nor is Campos, Max Clark, or Christian Santana. Nor is McGonigle or Paul Wilson. Jung/ Seretti/ Gold are not close and are probably secondary type players at best. I don't believe Tyler Mattison belongs with the top guys as a reliever only guy but he could become a secondary type player.

My overriding point was that I foresee no salary cap issues for the Tigers in the near future, especially with a couple different waves of players each separated from each other by a few years apart of breaking into MLB. Which was a response I believe to someone else's post about potential problems with both Max Clark and Riley Greene on the team. Timing-wise... I don't see it.

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I don't really understand all of the discussion happening among the Tiger fanbase about the timeline.  You don't draft for need in baseball and, also, Greene is arguably the only legit building block on the team and he's 22. If Clark develops like the Tigers hope he will, then he'll be in Detroit when Greene is only in his mid 20's.  I don't really see the issue.

Edited by Scottwood
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