On the Bright Side: 2023 MLB Draft

[gehringer_2]

Just now, RatkoVarda said:

and not enough to overcome his faceplant trades

Trades were absolutely the worst. They lost so much roster value in the teardown that they needed to have converted to viable youth and instead just squandered.

[1984Echoes]

22 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

... Did he finally actually have a decent scouting staff in place just in time to get himself canned?

That's called "too late to the table" and yes, that's part of why he did get canned. IIRC, Avila did move pitifully slow in bringing in guys/ scouts that actually understood the word "analytics", and what to do with them, which says: he didn't know who they were/ he was in over his head/ he didn't have the contacts/ draw power to bring in those guys. Or, all of the above.

But, starting in 2018 (pre-draft-hitters "era"); I started to really like his drafts. (Faedo & Vest are still here from 2017 but that's not much...):

2018: Mize, Skubal, Parker Meadows (at AAA and still has a chance) and guys still hanging on or were part of a trade: Kody Clemens (made it to MLB-Philly this year with a .644 OPS), Garrett Hill, plus some relievers still kicking around that probably amount to nothing but, still in the Org so they... "have a chance"?

2019: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Beau Brieske, plus a lot of fringy guys like Kreidler, Lipcius, Brendan White, Navigato.

2020 (5 round draft): Torkelson, Dingler (did ok at Erie so there's still hope), Colt Keith (on the verge), and still might have a chance: Trei Cruz, Wilmer Flores (signed as an undrafted FA pitcher after the draft)... versus guys who are struggling to make progress (but still too early to consign to a dustbin): Daniel Cabrera, Gage Workman...

The newer drafts are too recent to know whether we get decent players out of there or not. But there are a lot of promising candidates...

Overall... the correct assessment on Avila seems to be: too little, too late, and too lazy.

[Tenacious D]

I’m convinced that Avila was fired as a scapegoat.  In a world of accountability, it was probably deserved, but the breaking point was in the midst of a season where the team underachieved, relative to 2021, due mostly to injuries and some bad luck, the natives got extra restless.  If you can recall, neither Chris nor Al played any role in Sweet Lou’s number retirement ceremony because they were concerned (rightfully) that the fans would turn on them.  I think Chris decided enough was enough and gave him up. He was fired right after that.

Not saying that Al was the victim in this—the fan frustration and some vitriol was warranted.  But he wasn’t a complete disaster, either.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Tenacious D

[Tenacious D]

 

[1984Echoes]

McGonigle and Paul Wilson are the two key remaining guys to sign on the dotted line...

[Tiger337]

5 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Agreed this goes totally against the rest of the baseball formula. You have zero salary cap yet you have to hagle a pool of money to sign draft picks? So dumb....

The draft was originally designed to keep down costs of new players and save owners money.  I think the slot system is just a more complex way of doing that.  

[LongLiveMaroth]

35 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

McGonigle and Paul Wilson are the two key remaining guys to sign on the dotted line...

I don't really worry about guys picked in the top 5 rounds. Teams know what it will take to get them and budget for it. 

[mtutiger]

4 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

the interwebs don't do nuance. Avila failed at everything! is the only HOT TAKE we are allowed.

seriously, Avila had some wins on his watch, probably more than he gets credit for, just not enough wins, not fast enough, not visible enough, and not enough to overcome his faceplant trades and free agents signings.

 

I do think he deserves some credit for getting the ball rolling on getting new PD people into the system. 

There was turnover after he left and Harris came in, but a lot of those hires from a couple of years ago (Garko being the most notable one) were retained.

[SeattleMike]

6 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

the interwebs don't do nuance. Avila failed at everything! is the only HOT TAKE we are allowed.

seriously, Avila had some wins on his watch, probably more than he gets credit for, just not enough wins, not fast enough, not visible enough, and not enough to overcome his faceplant trades and free agents signings.

 

Olsen for Norris: scouting acumen  or just dumb luck? 

[SoCalTiger]

3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

McGonigle and Paul Wilson are the two key remaining guys to sign on the dotted line...

Need those two badly. 

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

Olsen for Norris: scouting acumen  or just dumb luck? 

I can understand being able to pick someone's pocket with Norris. He was one of those 'hope springs eternal' guys because you knew there was good arm in there if you could just find the formula for him to deliver the ball like thousands of ordinary pitchers do everyday -  how hard could it be?

Too hard apparently. 

[Cruzer1]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

The draft was originally designed to keep down costs of new players and save owners money.  I think the slot system is just a more complex way of doing that.  

I always thought it was for competitive balance.

[Jim Cowan]

43 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I can understand being able to pick someone's pocket with Norris. He was one of those 'hope springs eternal' guys because you knew there was good arm in there if you could just find the formula for him to deliver the ball like thousands of ordinary pitchers do everyday -  how hard could it be?

Too hard apparently. 

Oh absolutely he was tailor made for those organizations with the hubris to think "we can fix him".  

[Tiger337]

5 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

I always thought it was for competitive balance.

That's what they tell us.  

[LongLiveMaroth]

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2023/07/20/detroit-tigers-mlb-draft-pick-brady-cerkownyk-special-player-catcher/70430512007/

[Dave Christian]

11 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2023/07/20/detroit-tigers-mlb-draft-pick-brady-cerkownyk-special-player-catcher/70430512007/

Very interesting article, thanks for posting it!

[gehringer_2]

9 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Oh absolutely he was tailor made for those organizations with the hubris to think "we can fix him".  

Unusual anyway. I guess Dontrelle was sort of similar in terms of being a pitcher that had an unfixable delivery, but IIRC in Dontrelle's case it also ended up being compounded by injuries.

[RatkoVarda]

11 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

Olsen for Norris: scouting acumen  or just dumb luck? 

perfect example of a nice win for Avila that somehow we can't give him credit for; it does not change the fact that he was overall really bad

[RandyMarsh]

Candy and Parades for a half season of Justin Wilson was probably Avila's biggest win. 

[RatkoVarda]

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/2023/all/team/tigers

Tigers go overslot in rounds 4, 8, 11, 12, 13, 15.

Diaz HS pitcher with crazy backstory gets $247,500

[Edman85]

11 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

I always thought it was for competitive balance.

As Lee said, that's what they tell you, but it has always been a bonus suppression mechanism.

[Shinzaki]

Diaz and the JUCO C Chernowhatever are the guys I'm looking forward to seeing develop.  They have fun backstories

[RatkoVarda]

Owners want cost certainty

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

[Tenacious D]

Go Get McGonigle!