07/27/2022 1:10 EDT San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers

[Tigeraholic1]

1 hour ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

You mean hitting .194 for July Paredes? Also no one could know that all this would happen to Meadows this year and if he comes back next year and hits 25 HR and a solid BA it'll be interesting to hear all the back peddling people will do. He could also never regain his former performance but I am willing to take the more optimistic look and see this as the outlier.  

I was speaking to 84echos comment that AA made a good deal to get Paredes. 

[LongLiveMaroth]

2 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

I was speaking to 84echos comment that AA made a good deal to get Paredes. 

My bad! 

[Tigeraholic1]

Just now, LongLiveMaroth said:

My bad! 

I like Meadows but man the guy just fell apart this year.... Hoping he rebounds with about 15-20 other players who broke this year as well.

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

What? Me worry?

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2022/07/27/victor-reyes-detroit-tigers-san-diego-padres-victory/10162621002/

Between this, and especially recent comments by Chafin and Skubal, I'm starting to wonder whether guys are marking their calendars dreaming of the day they can get the hell out of here.

After all, "unnamed executives" have been quoted in the press as having been told by the Tigers that every single player is available in trade, which basically confirms that the organization is complete and utter train wreck. Who would want to stick around wasting what's left of the precious time remaining in their career on that?

[mtutiger]

Honestly don't believe Skubal wants to be traded, just is more pissed off at the situation in general. But his words were cryptic, so it's hard to know for sure.

[Dan Gilmore]

I believe the actual quote did not say everyone was available for trade, it said just about everybody. May be too hair-splitting for some, but it is a distinction in my mind. 

[chasfh]

Skubal was named as one of the players available for trade, and I’m betting he’s pissed about it, which is probably why he was so short with the beat press the other day when asked about it, and maybe even the pressure of knowing this might have been a factor in his throwing shit all over the dugout after he was yanked the other day. It would not surprise me to learn that everything he’s heard about any of this is from the media, and that no one except A.J. and the coaches are trying to manage him on the issue.

Skubal may not necessarily want to be traded, but as a named player in the article, he’s got to be wondering to some degree what the future of this organization is, and perhaps whether he wants any part of it. And even if he ends up staying after all, being named like this in such an article stings hard, and the Tigers are going to have to work hard to soothe him and make him feel as if his future in Detroit is bright after all. That might be a pretty tall order.

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Skubal was named as one of the players available for trade, and I’m betting he’s pissed about it, which is probably why he was so short with the beat press the other day when asked about it, and maybe even the pressure of knowing this might have been a factor in his throwing shit all over the dugout after he was yanked the other day. It would not surprise me to learn that everything he’s heard about any of this is from the media, and that no one except A.J. and the coaches are trying to manage him on the issue.

Skubal may not necessarily want to be traded, but as a named player in the article, he’s got to be wondering to some degree what the future of this organization is, and perhaps whether he wants any part of it. And even if he ends up staying after all, being named like this in such an article stings hard, and the Tigers are going to have to work hard to soothe him and make him feel as if his future in Detroit is bright after all. That might be a pretty tall order.

I don't think that many young players ever want to be traded. Sure, you absolutely do see it in vets who see the end and want a shot at a championship, but I think the ideal of most young players is to be part of team that grows into winning a championship together.

[sabretooth]

12 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

You mean hitting .194 for July Paredes? Also no one could know that all this would happen to Meadows this year and if he comes back next year and hits 25 HR and a solid BA it'll be interesting to hear all the back peddling people will do. He could also never regain his former performance but I am willing to take the more optimistic look and see this as the outlier.  

Yeah, Paredes had a super-hot 126 PA from May 18 - July 5th, has utterly sucked otherwise this year, Meadows has had a set of freak injuries, and that = the Tigers got fleeced.  It's a super-lazy analysis.  I think Avila sucks but the Meadows trade is not at all an indication of that.  The trade was a good one that still has a long way to go evaluation-wise.

Meadows could be done due to unforeseen health issues, but Paredes might be the next Chris Shelton.

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think that many young players ever want to be traded. Sure, you absolutely do see it in vets who see the end and want a shot at a championship, but I think the ideal of most young players is to be part of team that grows into winning a championship together.

And he has established relationships in that clubhouse, many of whom are with players he came up with in the system... that's a much different situation than an Andrew Chafin, who is basically a mercenary in this league at this point.

I'm not that concerned about him patching it up with the front office if he's still here past next week (which I expect he will at this point)... not to mention there's a not-insignificant chance that the front office may look different after this year.

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

not to mention there's a not-insignificant chance that the front office may look different after this year.

yup. I'm really beginning to wonder if Avila and Hinch are even on the same page together at this point. Bringing Baddoo up to sit is just making no sense at all.

[Jim Cowan]

41 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

yup. I'm really beginning to wonder if Avila and Hinch are even on the same page together at this point. Bringing Baddoo up to sit is just making no sense at all.

It's really stupid to give all those ABs to Grossman and Willi while Baddoo sits.

[SoCalTiger]

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

Yeah, Paredes had a super-hot 126 PA from May 18 - July 5th, has utterly sucked otherwise this year, Meadows has had a set of freak injuries, and that = the Tigers got fleeced.  It's a super-lazy analysis.  I think Avila sucks but the Meadows trade is not at all an indication of that.  The trade was a good one that still has a long way to go evaluation-wise.

Meadows could be done due to unforeseen health issues, but Paredes might be the next Chris Shelton.

I respectfully disagree. It was a bad trade. Meadows is declining on both sides of the ball while his salary rises. Parades over time will prove greater value per salary cost and losing that draft pick knowing you already forfeited the third rounder was reckless. Paredas knows the strike zone and now has found his power which is why the Rays have always wanted him. I would rather have him and the draft pick PLUS the money going into 2023. Play him at third and DFA Candy then invest Candy’s 7 mil + Meadows 5 mil into the free agent market. And another high draft pick in the system. 

 

 

[casimir]

8 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I respectfully disagree. It was a bad trade. Meadows is declining on both sides of the ball while his salary rises. Parades over time will prove greater value per salary cost and losing that draft pick knowing you already forfeited the third rounder was reckless. Paredas knows the strike zone and now has found his power which is why the Rays have always wanted him. I would rather have him and the draft pick PLUS the money going into 2023. Play him at third and DFA Candy then invest Candy’s 7 mil + Meadows 5 mil into the free agent market. And another high draft pick in the system. 

 

 

I think going into this season, there was a sense that Candelario was a solid enough 3B.  Certainly not an all star, but definitely he should have been better than what we've seen in 2022.  I think there was an avenue for a modest extension beyond next season, but that opportunity should be gone now.

Paredes was a man without a position in that case.  His weight has been suspect to many, and this is at a young age.  I do question whether or not he was undervalued because of that.  But at the same time, the Tigers did try him out for a few games up the middle last season.  Maybe that was out of desperation because of the alternative options, but they gave him a look (same in Toledo).  I do think people would be surprised if they looked at his minor league stats.  He was a pretty effective hitter given his age vs competition.  And you mention his strike zone judgement, so a review of his BB/SO and OBP lends to that.

It should be a deal that both sides win for different reasons.  Tampa got an undervalued player and a pick.  Detroit got a lefty bat to stick in the middle of the order.  But here we are now, Paredes is struggling a bit and Meadows has had a fluke set of injuries/ailments to date.  Its probably worked out better for Tampa so far, but I don't think what has happened to Meadows could have been reasonably assumed.

[RandyMarsh]

To me the only way you can really knock the trade without using hindsight is that if you think we could've gotten a better player than Meadows by dangling Paredes to other teams.

Reason being is pretty much what Cas said, going into the season it would've taken a few unforeseen things happening for Parades to get consistent playing time here, and unfortunately for us those things did indeed end up happening.

 

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Reason being is pretty much what Cas said, going into the season it would've taken a few unforeseen things happening for Parades to get consistent playing time here, and unfortunately for us those things did indeed end up happening.

 

It's also the case that a few unforeseen things needed to happen for Paredes to get as much time as he has in Tampa's lineup as well. After all, he started the year in Durham. And he's largely remained in their lineup because, overall, it's not one of the best among contenders (especially after Wander Franco's injury) and for a 45 game stretch or so, he was one of the best parts of it.

It remains to be seen whether water is currently finding its level with Paredes or if his latest struggles are just a blip and he can mirror what he did during that stretch going forward. But the reality is that the deal looked good on paper at the time and, if Meadows were healthy and producing at the track record he's established, the trade would basically look like a wash at this point.

As always, we need to wait and see what the next years bring in terms of determining how bad this deal is. To the extent that I worry about the return on the deal, given the weak state of the Tigers farm with respect to position players, I do kinda think that losing the draft pick may have even been worse than losing Paredes.

Edited July 29, 2022 by mtutiger

[Tiger337]

It's too early to say they let a good one get away in Paredes.  He is batting .184/.279/.329 in July.  

Edited July 29, 2022 by Tiger337

[mtutiger]

I would add as well that, again, some of the revisionist history on this deal makes Paredes more of the centerpiece of the deal than he likely was when the Rays made it.... the talk at the time of the deal was that it had more to do with the cost of Austin Meadows going forward and needing to make room for Josh Lowe in the lineup (who has overall been poor in his short career, but that's neither here nor there). 

It's likely more of a situation where the Tigers and Rays hooked up because of this and the Rays picked out a player they thought could complement them or that they liked out of the system. To their credit, it has worked so far.... but as much as we may all dislike Al Avila, I don't think they were conniving behind the scenes trying to pry Paredes from our grasp or anything like that.

Edited July 29, 2022 by mtutiger

[casimir]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

It's too early to say they let a goodone get away in Paredes.  He is batting .184/.279/.329 in July.  

That's true, it is too early.  But, again, I think he has a bit of a AAA/AA resume to suggest he can be a pretty good bat.  Who knows, he could be another Candelario in the macro, a steady enough 3B that he can be plugged in as an everyday bat, but not necessarily a cornerstone type of a player.  A type of player you can build a team with before free agency hits but not someone to build a team around.

[casimir]

Just kind of eyeballing his age vs AAA and AA competition, Paredes is around 4-6 years younger.  I would say if Avila acquired this resume off of the scrap heap, we would be pretty happy with it.  I can understand the desire to keep a plyare like this.

But I think you rewind to when the trade was made, and thinking about having a pair of rookies playing everyday, Cabrera's bat in decline, questionable offense at best behind the plate, streaky bats up the middle infield,....  I understand why Avila was looking for another bat for the lineup.  I can understand why he thought Paredes was expendable.

Its baseball.  Sometimes things don't work out as expected.  Avila is at fault for many things.  I don't think that this is one of those.

[mtutiger]

In general, one can believe Al Avila has been a terrible GM while acknowledging a few of the deals that overall have worked out for the better (ie. Candy/Paredes for Avila/Wilson, Olson for Norris) or acknowledging the logic behind some deals that haven't worked out up until this point (Meadows for Paredes/Draft Pick).

Al's big mistakes were years in the making, particularly with getting little for JD or JV and waiting until last August to actually do a major revamp/reorganization of player development. And he should pay the price for those mistakes and for the lack of results that have resulted from them.

Edited July 29, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

Not that it matters now, but I don’t believe we gave Paredes as much of a shot to make it here in Detroit as we should have. We didn’t even give him as much of a chance as we gave Travis Demeritte. Then again, the front office was desperate to make the Shane Greene deal with the Braves look like it was going to pay off. They’ll do the same with Joey Wentz, and we’ll all keep our fingers crossed for that. If he can become at least a serviceable back-of-the-rotation piece for at least a little while—which was supposed to be his ceiling given Mize-Manning-Skubal slotted in above him—that’ll be considered a success.

I think the front office had already written off Paredes’s future here, so they were finna deal him at the first reasonable opportunity.

[sabretooth]

12 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I respectfully disagree. It was a bad trade. Meadows is declining on both sides of the ball while his salary rises. Parades over time will prove greater value per salary cost and losing that draft pick knowing you already forfeited the third rounder was reckless. Paredas knows the strike zone and now has found his power which is why the Rays have always wanted him. I would rather have him and the draft pick PLUS the money going into 2023. Play him at third and DFA Candy then invest Candy’s 7 mil + Meadows 5 mil into the free agent market. And another high draft pick in the system. 

I am not sure that we disagree.  If you are saying that you'd rather have Paredes at this point, I agree, primarily due to Meadows' health.

If you are saying that at the time of the trade, that it should have been apparent that Paredes was probably going to perform better on-field than Meadows up to this point or beyond this point, or that Avila should have known that Meadows' was a major injury risk, then I would disagree with that, very much so.

Meadows is a career 120 OPS+ guy, which is very good, especially over 1600 PAs, he's only 27, and Paredes projections both before and after the hot-streak show him to be capable of matching Meadows' demonstrated performance level, but nothing has indicated that Paredes is clearly a better hitter or player yet.

Like I said, at this point, I'd rather have Paredes, simply because he's not struggling with so many injuries, and he's younger and cheaper.....but it remains to be seen who will get the better of this deal. 

And in any case, I really think Meadows' health problems are an example of very bad and unforeseeable luck.

[gehringer_2]

IIRC, the evaluators knock on Paredes was that even if he hit, it was going to be empty BA because there there was no power projection. Since we have lost the board's history I can't look back to check that recollection.

But, if that was the case, they appear to have been wrong. Even in his slumping July Paredes has hit three more HRs.

But that would go more to why they never gave him the opportunity they gave others, and again, if that was the case, they were wrong.

Given that he had accomplished nothing at MLB and that Meadows' weird year was unforeseeable, the trade was fine. If the Tigers made a mistake with Paredes it was in their evaluations long before the trade.

Edited July 29, 2022 by gehringer_2

[RandyMarsh]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

IIRC, the evaluators knock on Paredes was that even if he hit, it was going to be empty BA because there there was no power projection. Since we have lost the board's history I can't look back to check that recollection.

But, if that was the case, to the degree it may have driven their decision making going into the trade, they were wrong. Even in his slumping July Paredes has hit three more HRs.

That was how I viewed him and expected of him. Yeah power can develop last in many cases but his profile just didn't seem like he would develop it. 

For starters even though he was young he didn't have a projectable frame, he wasnt like a 20 year old Castellanos who had wide shoulders and the type of frame where you could see he could add a bunch of muscle and in turn power. Parades already looked filled out so if he didn't have the power now it likely wasn't going to come. 

The second reason was that he wasn't hitting 110mph+ missiles where you thought if he changed his launch angle he'd hit more HRs. 

So yeah to me it is a huge surprise he developed this power.