2022 Michigan Football

[MichiganCardinal]

 

I don't understand the rationale of Clemson above Michigan. Win by 6 over Wake Forest in OT and by 6 over Syracuse (in addition to a close call against Florida State), compared to wins by 24 over Penn State and 13 over Iowa. I guess you can call Maryland by 7 a close call, though that score is a bit deceiving to anyone who watched the end of the game. I have to think this is a statement at their weak non-conference schedule.

Doesn't matter at the end of the day. They control their destiny.  I also think Clemson will almost certainly lose to one (or more) of Notre Dame, Lousiville, Miami, and South Carolina.

[Hongbit]

6 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

 

I don't understand the rationale of Clemson above Michigan. Win by 6 over Wake Forest in OT and by 6 over Syracuse (in addition to a close call against Florida State), compared to wins by 24 over Penn State and 13 over Iowa. I guess you can call Maryland by 7 a close call, though that score is a bit deceiving to anyone who watched the end of the game. I have to think this is a statement at their weak non-conference schedule.

Doesn't matter at the end of the day. They control their destiny.  I also think Clemson will almost certainly lose to one (or more) of Notre Dame, Lousiville, Miami, and South Carolina.

 

[buddha]

michigan played a shit non conference schedule and are being rightly punished for it.

imagine if they had kept ucla on the schedule and beat them?  they'd be #2 in this poll.

michigan cannot complain, they did this to themselves by scheduling like pussies.

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, buddha said:

michigan played a shit non conference schedule and are being rightly punished for it.

imagine if they had kept ucla on the schedule and beat them?  they'd be #2 in this poll.

michigan cannot complain, they did this to themselves by scheduling like pussies.

I think they prefer to play teams they can beat. Reality is they could still have an outside shot of getting into a playoff with one loss to a #1 OSU, which couldn't happen if it were the 2nd loss. Everyone hated the computerized SOS ranking system, but using a hard-core system like that's the only way a 2 loss team ever gets in, which means it's not worth the risk to schedule anyone you could lose to. All the tut-tutting at this point in the season about SOS is just that, on the last weekend wins and losses will carry the day.

Edited November 2, 2022 by gehringer_2

[MichiganCardinal]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think they prefer to play teams they can beat. Reality is they could still have an outside shot of getting into a playoff with one loss to a #1 OSU, which couldn't happen if it were the 2nd loss. Everyone hated the computerized SOS ranking system, but using a hard-core system like that's the only way a 2 loss team ever gets in, which means it's not worth the risk to schedule anyone you could lose to. All the tut-tutting at this point in the season about SOS is just that, on the last weekend wins and losses will carry the day.

I agree with this. When the playoff expands, I think there will be more benefit to scheduling more difficult opponents in non-conference play (to distinguish yourself if you finish with two losses). As it stands though, if you have two losses, you’re definitely out. Why risk it against a real opponent when you don’t have to?

[lordstanley]

Clemson’s out of conference opponents so far? Furman and Lousiana Tech! 

[Hongbit]

18 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Clemson’s out of conference opponents so far? Furman and Lousiana Tech! 

Furman is ranked high in FCS.  They are better than Colorado St. and Hawaii.   

[lordstanley]

17 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Furman is ranked high in FCS.  They are better than Colorado St. and Hawaii.   

I think TCU has a stronger resume than Clemson, to be honest. Although I expect them to lose a couple along the rest of the way.

Takeaway is that this should erase any illusion that Michigan has decent chance of making playoff if they lose to Ohio State. A loss will only cut it if they lose to Illinois, beat OSU, then beat Illinois in Big 10 championship rematch. MAYBE if they go 12-0 but lose Big 10 championship game to Illinois. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by lordstanley

[Hongbit]

Looking like 2 SEC teams, Winner of B1G, and either Clemson or P12 Champ or TCU

[Motor City Sonics]

Who cares what the first ranking is.   Win your games and you're in.  Lose the last one and you're not and that seems about right to me.   

Just kind of irritating that we have to hear from an expert named Boo Corrigan.   How can you take anyone with a name like that seriously?   

I think Clemson loses to North Carolina anyway and the Pac-12 teams keep knocking each other off.  TCU will have to continue beating up teams.    

I don't think Penn State belongs anywhere on that list.    

I think if I am the coach I love the disrespect at #5 and I'd use it for motivation all day.  

 

 

 

[romad1]

11 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Who cares what the first ranking is.   Win your games and you're in.  Lose the last one and you're not and that seems about right to me.   

Just kind of irritating that we have to hear from an expert named Boo Corrigan.   How can you take anyone with a name like that seriously?   

I think Clemson loses to North Carolina anyway and the Pac-12 teams keep knocking each other off.  TCU will have to continue beating up teams.    

I don't think Penn State belongs anywhere on that list.    

I think if I am the coach I love the disrespect at #5 and I'd use it for motivation all day.  

 

 

 

I think Phlegma Corrigan his estranged brother was not available for comment. 

[Motor City Sonics]

Another reason is red zone inefficiency?    Do people realize that they approached the MSU game with the most vanilla offense they had so they wouldn't show anything?   They weren't trying anything new last Saturday, they didn't need to. 

 

And as far as MSU players acting like Jimmy & Tommy beating up Billy Batts...........I didn't think they'd take losing so hard, I think they'd be used to it by now. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Clemson ahead of Michigan is some bullshit. Clemson is fraudulent and I believe would lose if they played Michigan or Ohio State. I think Michigan deserves to be ahead of Ohio State as well.

[Biff Mayhem]

7 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

 I think Michigan deserves to be ahead of Ohio State as well.

I'm sorry but this is the most homer thing that ever homered.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

16 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

I'm sorry but this is the most homer thing that ever homered.

We looked better than they did against Penn State is really my only reasoning for it. If you take last year into account, we beat them last year too.

[romad1]

I have a good report from East Lansing from my son.  He says the student body is outraged and upset with the players and their thuggishness.   This reflects a kid who chose MSU over other options (Momma being a Sparty was a distinct factor) and who needs MSU not to be known as a school for bullies for his own professional branding.  

So, while the professional grievance business that is the Valenti and Rico wal-mart Sparty crowd might sound bad....the truth is that there is a lot of outrage. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by romad1

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Biff Mayhem said:

I'm sorry but this is the most homer thing that ever homered.

sparty, what are you doing here?  go post in the msu football thread with all the sparty fans.  oh wait....

😋

[lordstanley]

As long as Michigan can beat Illinois, an 11-1 record and a trip to the Rose Bowl to play perhaps USC or Oregon would be a nice season.  Not that I’m conceding the OSU game, which if it were played tomorrow I’d give Michigan about a 30% chance of winning. 

[Biff Mayhem]

38 minutes ago, buddha said:

sparty, what are you doing here?  go post in the msu football thread with all the sparty fans.  oh wait....

😋

I'm not Sparty so stick it! 😄 

[Hongbit]

36 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

As long as Michigan can beat Illinois, an 11-1 record and a trip to the Rose Bowl to play perhaps USC or Oregon would be a nice season.  Not that I’m conceding the OSU game, which if it were played tomorrow I’d give Michigan about a 30% chance of winning. 

Last week I thought a UM win over a 1 loss Illinois team would get them in even with an OSU loss but that doesn’t appear to be so without a ton of help.   Clemson and TCU would need to lose and Oregon or Utah would have to be the team to come out of the Pac.  I could see UM being the 4th in that scenario if they lost to OSU.  

[lordstanley]

3 hours ago, Hongbit said:

Last week I thought a UM win over a 1 loss Illinois team would get them in even with an OSU loss but that doesn’t appear to be so without a ton of help.   Clemson and TCU would need to lose and Oregon or Utah would have to be the team to come out of the Pac.  I could see UM being the 4th in that scenario if they lost to OSU.  

A Penn State win over Ohio State would have made things interesting. It sounds like that with records against crossover teams being the tie breaker, if Penn State had won out the rest of the way Michigan likely would have won a 3-way tiebreaker if Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn St all ended up with 1 loss. Imagine that - Michigan goes into Columbus 11-0 and loses, but then wins the Big 10 championship game the following week. Michigan as a 1-loss Big 10 champion would have been hard to keep out, provided the Ohio St loss wasn't a blowout.

[Hongbit]

Interesting to wonder how a 1 loss Michigan or Ohio St. would match up among possible 1 loss Pac-12 teams:

USC will not go undefeated the rest of the way.  The combination of terrible defense (it is still a Lincoln Riley team) and Pac-12 officiating will trip them up at least once.  If by some miracle they win out, they may be the biggest contender with the only blemish a 1 point loss at Utah in a game they didn’t have Jordan Addison for most of the crucial 2nd half.    

UCLA would be right there too but would probably need Oregon to beat Utah to qualify for the P12 championship. They would have avenged their only loss at Oregon by 15 in the championship game. They do have that ugly win against South Alabama by a single point that could be the difference in a close battle.  

Oregon would end up with a great resume and very strong SoS overall.  There will be some very big wins in there especially down the stretch but I’m not sure if they can make up for 49-3 loss to Georgia to open the season.  Would probably come down to how close the UM/OSU game ended. 

Utah is already out with 2 losses but they are the best friend of UM and OSU and can easily ruin some and possibly all of the above scenarios. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Hongbit

[buddha]

i think a one loss michigan or ohio state would probably get in over oregon aasuming that one loss was to the other and it was a decently close game.  oregon's big game was a 49-3 shellacking.  that leaves a mark.  if michigan beats illinois and loses a close game to ohio state, i think they would get in over a one loss clemson or a one loss anyone from the pac 12 because of big ten bias.

if they get blown out in columbus i dont think they have a chance against other big one loss teams because of their soft schedule.

[Hongbit]

28 minutes ago, buddha said:

i think a one loss michigan or ohio state would probably get in over oregon aasuming that one loss was to the other and it was a decently close game.  oregon's big game was a 49-3 shellacking.  that leaves a mark.  if michigan beats illinois and loses a close game to ohio state, i think they would get in over a one loss clemson or a one loss anyone from the pac 12 because of big ten bias.

if they get blown out in columbus i dont think they have a chance against other big one loss teams because of their soft schedule.

Quite possible.  I wonder if Georgia was the #1 team, does the bias of not wanting a repeat of last years game hurt UM’s chances.  

Edited November 2, 2022 by Hongbit

[MichiganCardinal]

It's virtually guaranteed that two SEC teams make it. Moreover, if Alabama wins the SEC again and the loser of Georgia/Tennessee finishes without another loss, you could have three SEC teams at 12-1, 12-1, and 11-1. Wouldn't be shocked to see all three make it, plus the B1G Champ.

That said, I don't think Alabama will survive LSU, Ole Miss, the Iron Bowl, and the SEC Championship unscathed. I also don't think Clemson survives Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, South Carolina, and the ACC Championship without one loss minimum. TCU may have the best shot at playing spoiler, but I don't think they survive back-to-back trips to Texas and Baylor. I won't believe that the PAC-12 can't stay out of their own way until they prove it, so whoever wins USC/UCLA will probably get blown out by Oregon.

In the scenario that you have 1/SEC Champ, 2/B1G Champ, and 3/SEC Runner-up, a one-loss Michigan or Ohio State, that lost a close game, will be looked upon more favorably than a one-loss Big 12 Champ TCU, but would have a difficult time sizing up to a one-loss PAC 12 Champ (particularly if there is USC bias) or a one-loss ACC Champ Clemson. It would be close though.