08/24/2022 1:10 EDT San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers

[RandyMarsh]

After 6 shutout innings today the starters now have a sub 2.50 ERA for the month of August. Fetter's probably walking around the clubhouse like..

 

[sabretooth]

I have sliced and diced Baez's season every which way possible looking for something positive.  

The best that I can say is that he has cut down on his K's and might still be capable of hitting at an above average level for an entire season.

However, it appears that he has gone through the following arc in OPS+ terms:

- 2015 - 2017 age 22 - 24: 94 - 98 OPS+

- 2018 - 2021 age 25 - 28: 115 OPS+

- 2022 age 29: 80 OPS+ 

   * April - June 14: 47 OPS+ (203 PA)

   * June 15 - July 10: 139 OPS+ (90 PA)

   * July 11 - Present: 90 OPS+ (154 PA)

I looked his rolling two-week average OPS+ since the ASB and it's been right around 90 OPS+ throughout.

Maybe the first bad period through June 14 could be the NL/AL league switch issue, and maybe the deadened balls could explain some of the difficulties this year, but.... 

....his exit velocity has slowed by 3 MPH, his Max velocity has dropped by 5 MPH, and his HR/FB% has dropped from 25% to 6%.  His hard-hit percentage is down, has only partially rebounded throughout the season, and is settling in at a poor level. 

It looks like he could be experiencing a major/permanent loss of bat speed and a power blackout.  I think it's perfectly reasonable to fear that his age, loss of bat speed, and playing in a bigger home park may have turned him into a poor hitter.

Combine that with a very poor set of advanced defensive metrics for 2022 at SS and you're looking at another 5 years of expensive crap. 

We were expecting 4+ WAR. 

Seems likely that we will be seeing more like 1-2 WAR, basically Niko Goodrum circa 2018 - 2019.

Yuck.  WTF

[sabretooth]

I looked over the rest of the offense since the ASB and it's all abysmal.  When the best you can say is that the Castros and Reyes are between 85-97 OPS+ since the ASB (Willi has been at 118 in the last 30 days).  Kerry Carpenter had a nice week.  Baddoo has had a 377 On-base Pct over the last 30 days and a 104 OPS+.

That's all of the good news.

Everybody else is below 80 OPS+ since the ASB, including Greene and Haase.

WTF.  The entire offense is stabilizing in worst-in-history territory. 

Never in my wildest nightmares did I think this outcome with the offense would happen this year.

[SoCalTiger]

I gotta say you folks here are the best baseball analysts anywhere and specific to the Tigers to boot. Great stuff. Oh wait….maybe not so great news despite great analysis. 
 

can you all fluff it a bit ?

[sabretooth]

Despite my opposition to Avila and my sense that Chris didn't have the heart for building a winner, I was happy with the change in trajectory last year and going into 2022, although I wasn't thrilled with Baez (I wanted Story, who I realize hasn't been great but at least he's been OK with the bat and glove this year overall), I liked the combination of Baez, Meadows, Tork, Greene, along with E. Rod and Pineda, and I thought we were on track to have a decent 500 team this year (as did the professional projection systems), and maybe we could luck into the playoffs this year or next.

Despite the horrible start, I stuck to my guns against my friends and family that the players were slumping and skill levels would assert themselves for people like Tork, Schoop, Candy, Baez, and once Meadows, Manning, and others were healthy, we'd be on our way to at least 75 wins and probably more like 80+. 

After the horrible 9-23 start, we had a stretch of 15-11, even with a ton of injuries and with a bunch of hitters still underperforming....then after June 11, we have been playing .350 ball (24-43), and despite miraculous pitching and generally good defense, the hitting has just been beyond horrible.  

I really want to see signs of hope with the hitting but there is almost nothing to be hopeful about.  Greene is fun to watch but still puts up terrible numbers.  Tork continues to suck at AAA.  Meadows is a medical morass.  I'd like to see what the other prospects can do, but we can't seriously count on these guys for 2023.

I'm very open-minded to positive analysis, I would like to be a lot more hopeful about things; it's ridiculous and basically inexplicable that players with established skill levels should all crash and burn like this at the same time.  I've never seen this in my 45 years of watching the Tigers, even the bad Randy Smith teams didn't have this kind of stink about them.

Edited August 25, 2022 by sabretooth

[casimir]

7 hours ago, sabretooth said:

I have sliced and diced Baez's season every which way possible looking for something positive.  

The best that I can say is that he has cut down on his K's and might still be capable of hitting at an above average level for an entire season.

However, it appears that he has gone through the following arc in OPS+ terms:

- 2015 - 2017 age 22 - 24: 94 - 98 OPS+

- 2018 - 2021 age 25 - 28: 115 OPS+

- 2022 age 29: 80 OPS+ 

   * April - June 14: 47 OPS+ (203 PA)

   * June 15 - July 10: 139 OPS+ (90 PA)

   * July 11 - Present: 90 OPS+ (154 PA)

I looked his rolling two-week average OPS+ since the ASB and it's been right around 90 OPS+ throughout.

Maybe the first bad period through June 14 could be the NL/AL league switch issue, and maybe the deadened balls could explain some of the difficulties this year, but.... 

....his exit velocity has slowed by 3 MPH, his Max velocity has dropped by 5 MPH, and his HR/FB% has dropped from 25% to 6%.  His hard-hit percentage is down, has only partially rebounded throughout the season, and is settling in at a poor level. 

It looks like he could be experiencing a major/permanent loss of bat speed and a power blackout.  I think it's perfectly reasonable to fear that his age, loss of bat speed, and playing in a bigger home park may have turned him into a poor hitter.

Combine that with a very poor set of advanced defensive metrics for 2022 at SS and you're looking at another 5 years of expensive crap. 

We were expecting 4+ WAR. 

Seems likely that we will be seeing more like 1-2 WAR, basically Niko Goodrum circa 2018 - 2019.

Yuck.  WTF

I am not quite as convinced as others about the switch from the NL to the AL.  I think there are enough videos and other tools to see a pitcher, although maybe the Tigers as an organization don't use these enough to their benefit.  Perhaps it is an issue, I am just suspicious about it.

That aside, I do wonder about a loss of bat speed and/or loss of hand-eye coordination as Baez ages.  He has a pretty hard swing.  Is it a sustainable swing through this contract?  Has it begun to slow down without a proper adjustment to it?  We've seen him flail at sliders, so is there something that has happened to his swing that allows that to be a blind spot?  Maybe he's been susceptible to it all along and for whatever reason pitchers are simply using it more against him (seems suspect for pitchers to have just figured this out)?

[RandyMarsh]

Not as much as somebody like Chas but I did watch alot of Baez with the Cubs due to spending past summers in western Michigan where Cubs games were prevelant, anyway to my untrained eye he doesnt look a whole lot different at the plate other than the mistake pitches or hot stretches before he would hit for HRs now they are singles or doubles at best.

Don't know if that is just a random thing that will correct itself, a launch angle thing or if the bat just isn't as quick so the power just isn't there. Either way if it doesn't get corrected it severely limits his output. We all knew about the cold stretches but if his "hot" stretches consist of singles or doubles instead of home runs well those stretches just aren't going to be valuable enough to come close to offsetting the cold stretches.

[SoCalTiger]

In summary it seems we are suffering a sever POWER outage so I suppose adding some is the number one priority for the new GM. That and some health serum.

[sabretooth]

5 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not as much as somebody like Chas but I did watch alot of Baez with the Cubs due to spending past summers in western Michigan where Cubs games were prevelant, anyway to my untrained eye he doesnt look a whole lot different at the plate other than the mistake pitches or hot stretches before he would hit for HRs now they are singles or doubles at best.

Don't know if that is just a random thing that will correct itself, a launch angle thing or if the bat just isn't as quick so the power just isn't there. Either way if it doesn't get corrected it severely limits his output. We all knew about the cold stretches but if his "hot" stretches consist of singles or doubles instead of home runs well those stretches just aren't going to be valuable enough to come close to offsetting the cold stretches.

There doesnt appear to be any approach difference that I can discern, other than he's swinging/missing less.

Outcome wise, the one major difference, other than fewer Ks, is that *he's hitting the ball less hard on flyballs.*  That seems to be the major difference.

[buddha]

i'm old enough to remember when half this board was crowing about the deal we got for baez rather than spending money on correa.

[Jim Cowan]

18 minutes ago, buddha said:

i'm old enough to remember when half this board was crowing about the deal we got for baez rather than spending money on correa.

I was pretty happy about it.  I wanted no part of Correa.

[casimir]

59 minutes ago, buddha said:

i'm old enough to remember when half this board was crowing about the deal we got for baez rather than spending money on correa.

I thought Baez for 5 years would’ve been better dollar for dollar than Correa for 10 to 12.  The Baez contract would’ve allowed for opportunity cost to be spent elsewhere on the roster.  Baez has fallen off of a cliff and Correa got a much more palatable contract than expected.  So, yeah, what the hell do I know?

[buddha]

both of you were wrong.

[casimir]

5 minutes ago, buddha said:

both of you were wrong.

Yes, dear.

[SoCalTiger]

Put me in the OK for Baez deal and no on overpaying CC. And I still think he will be better next year and I still find him enjoyable to watch apart from too many give away AB's. If the team id better I believe there will be less of those. 

 

                                        2023 the Return of EL MAGO !!!

[buddha]

54 minutes ago, casimir said:

Yes, dear.

i'm glad one of you can admit it.

dear.

[Jim Cowan]

9 minutes ago, buddha said:

i'm glad one of you can admit it.

dear.

Lol, I didn't say I was happy with him now.  I said I was happy with signing him then.

[mtutiger]

Correa's production per AAV isn't that much better than Baez this year.

That obviously could change in future seasons, but seems noteworthy

[casimir]

8 hours ago, buddha said:

i'm glad one of you can admit it.

dear.

The results aren't good so far, can't argue that.  But the contracts aren't over yet, so we'll see how it plays out.

[mtutiger]

52 minutes ago, casimir said:

The results aren't good so far, can't argue that.  But the contracts aren't over yet, so we'll see how it plays out.

I'm not even sure that Correa is the most preferable SS on the market. I'd rather have Trea Turner or Danby Swanson at the money they likely would command.

Edited August 26, 2022 by mtutiger

[casimir]

7 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Correa's production per AAV isn't that much better than Baez this year.

That obviously could change in future seasons, but seems noteworthy

I would like to see the maths behind this one.  I understand the salaries, but how is the production quantified?

[RandyMarsh]

5 minutes ago, casimir said:

I would like to see the maths behind this one.  I understand the salaries, but how is the production quantified?

Javy's been worth 1.2 WAR while making 22 million meanwhile Correa has been worth 2.2 WAR but at 35 million. Not a major difference in dollar to WAR.

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, casimir said:

I would like to see the maths behind this one.  I understand the salaries, but how is the production quantified?

I was using WAR, Baez is 1.2 and Correa is 2.2 per Fangraphs

Correa is obviously better on that score. But $35 mil/year is a lot for someone who ranks 13th in WAR among SS.

[mtutiger]

32 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Javy's been worth 1.2 WAR while making 22 million meanwhile Correa has been worth 2.2 WAR but at 35 million. Not a major difference in dollar to WAR.

In fairness to Correa, he has a much better WRC+ than Baez and that puts him among the better shortstops.

But nonetheless, his production has been underwhelming for a guy who signed a $35 million dollar contract and who expects to opt out to get more.

In either event, there are multiple guys in free agency who are better options. Though I doubt the Tigers will be shopping for a shortstop this offseason regardless of who they hire.

Edited August 26, 2022 by mtutiger

[RandyMarsh]

18 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

In fairness to Correa, he has a much better WRC+ than Correa and that puts him among the better shortstops.

But nonetheless, his production has been underwhelming for a guy who signed a $35 million dollar contract and who expects to opt out to get more.

In either event, there are multiple guys in free agency who are better options. Though I doubt the Tigers will be shopping for a shortstop this offseason regardless of who they hire.

Yeah it definitely seems like it's one of those cases where WAR doesn't tell the whole story of the impact they actually had on the field but regardless Javy's suckiness doesn't mean the Correa signing would've been good either.

Also there is no guarantee that Correa puts up the same season here hitting with all the chumps in our lineup and the incompetent hitting coach we have as he has with a contending Minnesota team.